It's a meaningless "probability" on several counts. 1) It applies to everyone reading it, and it would apply to me if I were different and reading it. It tries to convey a specialness which doesn't seem to exist. If a billion people win a penny each then winning a penny isn't miraculous, even if it is a 1 in 1,000,000,000 chance that you win any particular penny - but the 'particular' part has no significance. 2) I a…
What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?
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Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?
#22It's a meaningless "probability" on several counts. 1) It applies to everyone reading it, and it would apply to me if I were different and reading it. It tries to convey a specialness which doesn't seem to exist. If a billion people win a penny each then winning a penny isn't miraculous, even if it is a 1 in 1,000,000,000 chance that you win any particular penny - but the 'particular' part has no significance. 2) I a…
I appreciate point #2: "The probability that I exist, given that I exist, is 1." However, the question addressed by the OP is not "What is the probability that I would exist in this world?" but "What is the probability, across the space of all possible continuations of the world from the dawn of humanity, that the world would end up in a state that includes me?"
Not particularly more or less probable than most particular states that don't include me, I imagine?
Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?
#23Or in other words, the chances of the outcome having a very low probability are very high.
Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?
#24This brings to mind the excellent Feynman quote: “You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won’t believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!” Th…
No one places much significance on the random people who win the lottery. But if that random person happens to be you , you feel incredibly lucky (and rightfully so).
While it may still feel lucky to exist, the probability of you being born given that you are asking the question is 1.
Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?
#25Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?
#26Looking at it from a macro perspective these particles, energy quantums, and forces have resulted in innumerable acts of learning and knowledge. People more learned than you and I have developed all manners of science and technology. Wars have been fought. Nations conquered. Virulent plagues unleashed with millions of people dying. A veritable tapestry of human achievement has been women together due to the interactions of countless tiny little particles, bundles of energy, and forces.
And all this rich history of the universe has been building up like a fantastic crescendo in the most amazing symphony every conducted, culminating in a singular event so that here and now I would post this comment on Hacker News. What are the odds of that?
Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?
#27Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?
#28Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?
#29http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy
But let assume that newborn with your exact genes was born.
What are the chances that your conscious would occupy that body?
Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?
#30You think that's impressive? 14 billion years ago a big bang occurred and particles too numerous to count were unleashed. Throughout all that time, these particles danced a particular pattern and interacted with each other through quantum effects that we don't even fully understand today. Just think of all the collisions that have occurred between all the particles in the universe; the ebb and flow of forces acting o…