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What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?

blogs.law.harvard.edu

21–30 of 44 posts

Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?

#21

It's a meaningless "probability" on several counts. 1) It applies to everyone reading it, and it would apply to me if I were different and reading it. It tries to convey a specialness which doesn't seem to exist. If a billion people win a penny each then winning a penny isn't miraculous, even if it is a 1 in 1,000,000,000 chance that you win any particular penny - but the 'particular' part has no significance. 2) I a…

People seem to habitually miss point #3. See, for example, many hypotheticals that ask you to imagine yourself in another person's shoes. (Not sure what a succinct alternative would be, though.)

Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?

#22
post #9

It's a meaningless "probability" on several counts. 1) It applies to everyone reading it, and it would apply to me if I were different and reading it. It tries to convey a specialness which doesn't seem to exist. If a billion people win a penny each then winning a penny isn't miraculous, even if it is a 1 in 1,000,000,000 chance that you win any particular penny - but the 'particular' part has no significance. 2) I a…

I appreciate point #2: "The probability that I exist, given that I exist, is 1." However, the question addressed by the OP is not "What is the probability that I would exist in this world?" but "What is the probability, across the space of all possible continuations of the world from the dawn of humanity, that the world would end up in a state that includes me?"

> "What is the probability, across the space of all possible continuations of the world from the dawn of humanity, that the world would end up in a state that includes me?"

Not particularly more or less probable than most particular states that don't include me, I imagine?

Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?

#23
The chances of a pack of cards being dealt out in a particular order are incredibly low (I'll leave it to the math's whiz kids to work out exactly how low) but you would hardly say it was a miracle if they came out in that order. Same with the chances of you existing. Things are always going to turn out some way, even if the likelihood of that outcome is very low.

Or in other words, the chances of the outcome having a very low probability are very high.

Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?

#24

This brings to mind the excellent Feynman quote: “You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won’t believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance that I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!” Th…

No one places much significance on the random people who win the lottery. But if that random person happens to be you , you feel incredibly lucky (and rightfully so).

But if you hadn't been born, you wouldn't be alive to ponder the probability of being born.

While it may still feel lucky to exist, the probability of you being born given that you are asking the question is 1.

Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?

#26
You think that's impressive? 14 billion years ago a big bang occurred and particles too numerous to count were unleashed. Throughout all that time, these particles danced a particular pattern and interacted with each other through quantum effects that we don't even fully understand today. Just think of all the collisions that have occurred between all the particles in the universe; the ebb and flow of forces acting on the smallest of every single subatomic particle and quantum of energy that exists.

Looking at it from a macro perspective these particles, energy quantums, and forces have resulted in innumerable acts of learning and knowledge. People more learned than you and I have developed all manners of science and technology. Wars have been fought. Nations conquered. Virulent plagues unleashed with millions of people dying. A veritable tapestry of human achievement has been women together due to the interactions of countless tiny little particles, bundles of energy, and forces.

And all this rich history of the universe has been building up like a fantastic crescendo in the most amazing symphony every conducted, culminating in a singular event so that here and now I would post this comment on Hacker News. What are the odds of that?

Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?

#27
Very good really. Because mutations in sperms are very low. So out of the million or so sperm running the rat race to the egg they all hold basically the same info 50% (DNA) of you from your father and the egg will hold the other 50%(DNA) of you from the mother that will make 100% you. Environment factors will play relatively the same if spermA or spermB had made it to the egg. Only other factor is that the role of environment based on if the egg developed as a male or female factor.

Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?

#29
post #25

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy

Exactly.

But let assume that newborn with your exact genes was born.

What are the chances that your conscious would occupy that body?

Re: What Are The Chances That You Would Be Born?

#30
post #26

You think that's impressive? 14 billion years ago a big bang occurred and particles too numerous to count were unleashed. Throughout all that time, these particles danced a particular pattern and interacted with each other through quantum effects that we don't even fully understand today. Just think of all the collisions that have occurred between all the particles in the universe; the ebb and flow of forces acting o…

just 2nd law of thermodynamics at work.
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