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We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

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Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#21

Post by maccam912 »

Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

When it's a survey of many economists I tend to put stock in what comes out. In this case if 80% say there is a 25% chance of a second dip, thats a much more informed opinion than I could ever have on the subject. I now know it isn't likely so don't plan my life around waiting for the second dip, but also don't be too surprised if we do see a second dip.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#22

Post by UncleOxidant »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #15
UncleOxidant wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Like in the 30s the government should step in and hire people. Companies can't do that in a recession/depression. However, the other side of Keynesian economics that's not as often cited is that during the good times the government saves up for the inevitable bad times - we haven't done that for a long time.

You'd need a New Deal [1] effort to do so, but both political parties in the US have no appetite [2] for that sort of legislative effort. It might happen if the quantity of suffering increases, but we're not there yet. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal [2] https://www.vox.com/2020/8/19/21375039/dnc-2020-democrats-pl...

I think the Dems would be open to a New Deal-like effort. They've got the Green New Deal proposal.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#23

Post by bmitc »

It won’t be just a year or two. This is going to have long term repercussions. Basically everyone from the age of 5 to 22 will have a year or two of missing education. We’re losing tons of immigrants and non-immigrant foreign workers, of the latter many of which are doctors or advanced degree holders. Many Chinese are simply leaving the U.S. on their own accord, even if they aren’t caught up in the travel bans or other such issues, because life is better for them in China right now. Many businesses are gone and won’t come back. Nearly everything in the U.S. is happening in slow motion. Everything takes at least twice as long as it did.

People act as if even if Trump is voted out and a vaccine suddenly appears, that everything will turn back on. No. Not only have things been delayed during Trump’s presidency and during the pandemic, they have explicitly regressed. The government has basically been shutdown for the past four years, just bleeding money and limping along, and that’s especially true for the past eight months or so. This is not a one or two year thing. We’re talking multi-years if not decades of reverberations.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#24

Post by Afforess »

Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

>Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future.

[citation needed]

>I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from?

All the stock market gains are from big tech. Any other markets are flat or down. ( https://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec&st=ytd )

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#25

Post by jug »

hbosch wrote: post #19

Are we actually in a recession right now?

Was just about to say this. My equity funds are back to ≈85% before pandemic on average. One of them is better than before it. And that is coming from a very highly valued market due for a correction for years.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#26

Post by UncleOxidant »

daenz wrote: post #17
UncleOxidant wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Like in the 30s the government should step in and hire people. Companies can't do that in a recession/depression. However, the other side of Keynesian economics that's not as often cited is that during the good times the government saves up for the inevitable bad times - we haven't done that for a long time.

>Like in the 30s the government should step in and hire people What does the government usually hire people to do in this situation?

In the 30s they hired people to build stuff. They hired artists to create public art as well - Woody Guthrie was paid to write songs, for example.

We definitely could do similar now. Lots of infrastructure needs updating. We could accelerate the move to green energy (like the Green New Deal proposal). We could also hire a lot of people to do contact tracing until the end of the pandemic - this could include folks to do datamining, etc.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#27

Post by xxpor »

Aaronstotle wrote: post #12
xxpor wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is essentially the reason behind Keynesian stimulus, isn't it? Something's gotta bootstrap the recovery.

I thought that in Keynesian stimulus/theory, the government, not the private sector, provides the recovery?

I think we're saying the same thing :)

The government provides money to people (how can change, new deal style job corps or stimulus checks, etc), and now they have money to spend in businesses, the businesses can hire more people, and there goes the flywheel again.

Re: We'll be stuck in this recession for years, economists say

#30

Post by superhuzza »

Guzba wrote: post #11

Economists are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. For some reason otherwise smart people don't realize this? I think it's something about economists being associated with the university system. I see this assured economic doom repeated so much without being questioned as anything but guaranteed I wonder where this incredible confidence is coming from? We have literally no idea what 2021 holds for…

𝙴̶𝚌̶𝚘̶𝚗̶𝚘̶𝚖̶𝚒̶𝚜̶𝚝̶𝚜̶ People are as effective as astrologists at predicting the future. I don't know if there's any groups that can make broad, societal predictions - the only predictions you can trust tend to be incredibly specific.
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