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Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

cdc.gov

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Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#21

Post by dragonwriter »

hyperpape wrote: post #15
MiroF wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but then compare the number of typical influenza dead to the year of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic

They were within ordinary ranges, though perhaps at the high end. The US has more flu deaths in a typical year than it had H1N1 deaths. I was watching it obsessively early on, but it turned out to not be disastrous.

> The US has more flu deaths in a typical year than it had H1N1 deaths.

But far more infections from H1N1 (60+ million, whereas 45 million is the top estimated annual total flu infections from 2010 on): the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic flu turned out to be more infectious but less deadly (I wonder if this is in part because during the pandemic people reacted to potential flu symptoms more diligently) than typical seasonal flu, and there was very light seasonal flu activity.

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#23

Post by catalogia »

netsharc wrote: post #13
iscrewyou wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been seeing containment numbers rising in the millions on the front page of NYTimes. In the morning it was 20 million. Then hours later it was mid 20s. It increased after that again. And now I’m reading 35 million. So, there’s a good possibility that China might be underplaying the infected and death numbers.

The numbers in the millions are the population affected by city-wide quarantines, where trains/long distance buses have been stopped from coming or leaving...

If the quarantine is indeed growing rapidly, that might suggest that Chinese officials are receiving updated information about the scope of the disease that prompts them to expand the quarantine.

A growing quarantine seems to suggest they believe the disease is not yet contained.

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#24

Post by RandomBacon »

jostmey wrote: post #10

Exponential growth has a way of catching people off guard. Moore’s laws continually surprised business. Viral spread will catch society off guard. It is my opinion that we must, as a society, go to enormous lengths to stop this virus, beyond quarantining millions in Wuhan.

And what are you not-so-subtly suggesting?

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#26

Post by bordercases »

xvilka wrote: post #11

If you are not a scientist this doesn't mean you can't help fighting this particular or any other infectious and non-infectious disease. It is easy - just help to improve the tools that scientists and laboratories use. For example, something like BioJulia[1][2] and BioPython[3][4] - both have some issues[5][6] that need help with or accepting donations[7]. There are many other tools that are used, feel free to list t…

Are these tools really used by disease labs?

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#27

Post by korantu »

Wowfunhappy wrote: post #18
dzhiurgis wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The global aviation industry produces around 2% of all human-induced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Aviation is responsible for 12% of CO2 emissions from all transports sources, compared to 74% from road transport. First result on Google...

The bigger problem with aviation is there's no known way to decarbonize it within the foreseeable future. Hopefully most people will be driving electric cars within the next few decades, but with airplanes that won't be possible absent a miraculous breakthrough.

The actual process already exists in electrofuels. [0] . If one has enough hear/electricity, they could generate fuel directly usable in existing jet engines with captured CO2, making overall process CO2-neutral

[0] https://karmaimpact.com/jet-engine-makers-cast-an-eye-on-nuc...

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#28

Post by chrisco255 »

wisdomdata wrote: post #9

on currently published numbers the death rate is around one death per 30 infections. (25th January, 41 people dead from 1287 infections). According to wikipedia the spanish flu had a death rate of 1 in 50 (although the numbers may not be that reliable), so until more is known about transmission it should prompt precautions.

There's a delay from infection to death, it may take one to two weeks from showing symptoms to death. So it could be higher than 1 in 30. Still alarming either way.

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#29

Post by chrisco255 »

secondo wrote: post #17

Both to those making claims or asking about the severity of the Wuhan coronavirus The Guardian offers a sober perspective of the current situation. We don’t yet know how dangerous the new coronavirus is – and we won’t know until more data comes in. Twenty-six deaths out of 800 reported cases would mean a 3% mortality rate. However, this is likely to be a overestimate since there may be a far larger pool of people who…

No, the infections rose from like 650 to 1200 in the last 24 hours (at least, the published numbers did anyways). So almost half of the infections are less than 24 hours. Pneumonia can last for 1-2 weeks, so there's going to be a delay in calculating death rates.

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#30

Post by zaroth »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #4
summm wrote: post #2

Can't we just stop that traveling nightmare? Now it's not only going to destroy our climate, but also bringing the Zombie Apocalypse.

> The global aviation industry produces around 2% of all human-induced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Aviation is responsible for 12% of CO2 emissions from all transports sources, compared to 74% from road transport. First result on Google...

Human breathing produces about 2.5 billion tons of CO2 per year. Aviation is just under 1 billion tons per year.

Aviation is one of the great wonders of the modern world. The carbon it produces is essentially inconsequential.

Compared to the wealth, knowledge, peace, and prosperity that international travel directly supports, calls to curtail plane travel in order to reduce CO2 IMO are seriously misguided.

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