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Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

cdc.gov

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Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#11

Post by xvilka »

If you are not a scientist this doesn't mean you can't help fighting this particular or any other infectious and non-infectious disease. It is easy - just help to improve the tools that scientists and laboratories use. For example, something like BioJulia[1][2] and BioPython[3][4] - both have some issues[5][6] that need help with or accepting donations[7]. There are many other tools that are used, feel free to list them in the comments.

[1] https://biojulia.net/

[2] https://github.com/BioJulia

[3] https://biopython.org/

[4] https://github.com/biopython/

[5] https://github.com/BioJulia/BioSequences.jl/issues

[6] https://github.com/biopython/biopython/issues?q=label%3A%22h...

[7] https://opencollective.com/biojulia#backer

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#12

Post by MiroF »

Barrin92 wrote: post #6
summm wrote: post #2

Can't we just stop that traveling nightmare? Now it's not only going to destroy our climate, but also bringing the Zombie Apocalypse.

this is a pneumonia infection, which usually infects three million Americans per year and kills sixty thousand. And if that is scary to you don't look up the damage influenza causes every year and has since time immemorial. I have absolutely no idea what's going on with the hysteria among the press or commenters, this is not a zombie virus.

but then compare the number of typical influenza dead to the year of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#13

Post by netsharc »

iscrewyou wrote: post #5
tempsy wrote: post #3

The market seems to be reacting to this. Hard to tell how serious it really is relative to the flu, but would not be surprised if China was underplaying the numbers, both infected and deaths.

I’ve been seeing containment numbers rising in the millions on the front page of NYTimes. In the morning it was 20 million. Then hours later it was mid 20s. It increased after that again. And now I’m reading 35 million. So, there’s a good possibility that China might be underplaying the infected and death numbers.

The numbers in the millions are the population affected by city-wide quarantines, where trains/long distance buses have been stopped from coming or leaving...

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#14

Post by YZF »

wisdomdata wrote: post #9

on currently published numbers the death rate is around one death per 30 infections. (25th January, 41 people dead from 1287 infections). According to wikipedia the spanish flu had a death rate of 1 in 50 (although the numbers may not be that reliable), so until more is known about transmission it should prompt precautions.

We have no idea how many people have none to very light symptoms so these numbers are quite meaningless. I think we'll learn quite a lot more over the coming weeks from the cases in western countries. So far this doesn't seem too concerning but we'll see how it develops...

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#15

Post by hyperpape »

MiroF wrote: post #12
Barrin92 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is a pneumonia infection, which usually infects three million Americans per year and kills sixty thousand. And if that is scary to you don't look up the damage influenza causes every year and has since time immemorial. I have absolutely no idea what's going on with the hysteria among the press or commenters, this is not a zombie virus.

but then compare the number of typical influenza dead to the year of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic

They were within ordinary ranges, though perhaps at the high end. The US has more flu deaths in a typical year than it had H1N1 deaths.

I was watching it obsessively early on, but it turned out to not be disastrous.

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#16

Post by Barrin92 »

legionof7 wrote: post #8
Barrin92 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is a pneumonia infection, which usually infects three million Americans per year and kills sixty thousand. And if that is scary to you don't look up the damage influenza causes every year and has since time immemorial. I have absolutely no idea what's going on with the hysteria among the press or commenters, this is not a zombie virus.

Isn't this more infectious and potentially deadlier?

it may be possible that it is more infectious than ordinary pneumonia but it doesn't appear more deadly, in fact it appears to be less severe in the majority of patients. The mortality rate for hospitalized pneumonia patients, in general, is about 5%, for the coronavirus it appears to be about 3% right now but that number is likely too high because a lot of the less severe cases might not be diagnosed as such.

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#17

Post by secondo »

Both to those making claims or asking about the severity of the Wuhan coronavirus The Guardian offers a sober perspective of the current situation.

We don’t yet know how dangerous the new coronavirus is – and we won’t know until more data comes in. Twenty-six deaths out of 800 reported cases would mean a 3% mortality rate. However, this is likely to be a overestimate since there may be a far larger pool of people who have been infected by the virus but who have not suffered severe enough symptoms to attend hospital and so have not been counted in the data. For comparison, seasonal flu typically has a mortality rate below 1% and is thought to cause about 400,000 deaths each year globally. Another key unknown, of which scientists should get a clearer idea in the coming weeks, is how contagious the coronavirus is. A crucial difference is that unlike flu, there is no vaccine for the new coronavirus, which means it is more difficult for vulnerable members of the population – elderly people or those with existing respiratory or immune problems – to protect themselves. One sensible step to get the flu vaccine, which will reduce the burden on health services if the outbreak turns into a wider epidemic.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/24/what-is-the-...

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#18

Post by Wowfunhappy »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #4
summm wrote: post #2

Can't we just stop that traveling nightmare? Now it's not only going to destroy our climate, but also bringing the Zombie Apocalypse.

> The global aviation industry produces around 2% of all human-induced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Aviation is responsible for 12% of CO2 emissions from all transports sources, compared to 74% from road transport. First result on Google...

The bigger problem with aviation is there's no known way to decarbonize it within the foreseeable future. Hopefully most people will be driving electric cars within the next few decades, but with airplanes that won't be possible absent a miraculous breakthrough.

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#19

Post by dragonwriter »

Barrin92 wrote: post #6
summm wrote: post #2

Can't we just stop that traveling nightmare? Now it's not only going to destroy our climate, but also bringing the Zombie Apocalypse.

this is a pneumonia infection, which usually infects three million Americans per year and kills sixty thousand. And if that is scary to you don't look up the damage influenza causes every year and has since time immemorial. I have absolutely no idea what's going on with the hysteria among the press or commenters, this is not a zombie virus.

> this is a pneumonia infection, which usually infects three million Americans per year and kills sixty thousand. And if that is scary to you don't look up the damage influenza causes every year

A lot more infected, but still fewer killed by influenza in most years (since 2010, the range is 9 million to 45 million infected and 12,000-61,000 killed by influenza in the US, per CDC.)

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Re: Second Travel-Related Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Detected in United States

#20

Post by sterlind »

handedness wrote: post #7
tempsy wrote: post #3

The market seems to be reacting to this. Hard to tell how serious it really is relative to the flu, but would not be surprised if China was underplaying the numbers, both infected and deaths.

I would not be surprised by that at all. Every Asia-focused analyst will tell you that the only aspect of China's state-reported numbers you can assume with a high degree of confidence is that they're heavily massaged for PR purposes.

Official numbers yes, but sometimes behavior leaks. What are wealthy/well-connected Chinese businesspeople and officials doing? Maybe there's some insider trading or money moving that could shed light on the real situation?
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