Bubble talk (2015) • Hacker News Board

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#21

Post by Matticus_Rex » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 2:08 PM UTC

user402 wrote: post #13

Matticus_Rex wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part 1 didn't quite make it. Eyeballing it I think it's around $150B, which I think still substantially backs his point, but it loses him the bet. Part 2 was an easy win from Stripe alone. I scanned the YC '15 Winter list and I don't think I recognize any of them. Someone could track it better via Crunchbase, but I rather doubt that he bet correctly there either. EDIT: Oh, GitLab.

Part 3: Gitlab alone is almost $3B

Ah, cool. Missed them somehow.

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#22

Post by raverbashing » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 2:10 PM UTC

iamsb wrote: post #4

I dont think he won the first bet did he? Airbnb, Palantir, Dropbox, Uber, Spacex, and Pinterest together are less than 200 bn and falling. All still pretty good companies (not you Uber), doing interesting things though. bet 2 - I have not done the calculation, but just stripe puts it way beyond the 27 bn figgure. bet 3 - plenty of good companies in that batch. Razorpay was valued at half a billion dollars in last ro…

I suspect the mistake in Bet 1 was betting on Pinterest rather than Instagram or WhatsApp (though IG had been acquired at the time of writing)

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#23

Post by Waterluvian » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 2:13 PM UTC

cm2012 wrote: post #16

iamsb wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it was a bubble then?

Not sure if it's the right nomenclature, since bubbles are supposed to be pop. Instead they just grew in value slower than they were.

The muffins didn't rise properly.

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#24

Post by glofish » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 2:14 PM UTC

Datapoint for reference: if you invested in an SP500 fund during the same time you would have roughly doubled (around 180%) your money (an annualized return of 11%).

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#25

Post by cpach » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 2:17 PM UTC

austhrow743 wrote: post #18

Wonder who took the other side and where they chose for him to donate to. Edited due to ambiguity.

According to a previous HN thread, Michael de la Maza took the other side.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18792890

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#26

Post by 317070 » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 2:19 PM UTC

austhrow743 wrote: post #18

Wonder who took the other side and where they chose for him to donate to. Edited due to ambiguity.

Well, the other side won. So the other side will not need to donate. Albeit that it was close.

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#27

Post by H8crilA » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 2:19 PM UTC

blantonl wrote: post #14

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Yeah, a better bet would be about those companies actually delivering profits and "growing into their vaulations", as people politely put it. None of those companies have earned a single dollar for shareholders. Not a single dollar.

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#28

Post by dweekly » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 2:20 PM UTC

iamsb wrote: post #4

I dont think he won the first bet did he? Airbnb, Palantir, Dropbox, Uber, Spacex, and Pinterest together are less than 200 bn and falling. All still pretty good companies (not you Uber), doing interesting things though. bet 2 - I have not done the calculation, but just stripe puts it way beyond the 27 bn figgure. bet 3 - plenty of good companies in that batch. Razorpay was valued at half a billion dollars in last ro…

Bet 3: GitLab, Atomwise, Razorpay. So yes, I suspect he won that one.

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#29

Post by huffmsa » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 2:21 PM UTC

iamsb wrote: post #12

cm2012 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Biggest difference was that the public market valued a bunch of these companies waaay less than VCs did.

So it was a bubble then?

Perhaps, but dealt with via smaller adjustments rather than catastrophic collapse.

The underlying principles of the companies is sound, just priced a bit too high. The market fixed it (as it is supposed to do)

Re: Bubble talk (2015)

#30

Post by dweekly » Wed, Jan 01, 2020, 2:22 PM UTC

Matticus_Rex wrote: post #7

Ecco wrote: post #2

So... Did he win? I’m especially curious about part 3 :)

Part 1 didn't quite make it. Eyeballing it I think it's around $150B, which I think still substantially backs his point, but it loses him the bet. Part 2 was an easy win from Stripe alone. I scanned the YC '15 Winter list and I don't think I recognize any of them. Someone could track it better via Crunchbase, but I rather doubt that he bet correctly there either. EDIT: Oh, GitLab.

Also Atomwise is in that group.