Bet 1 should be less than 200bn. Bet 2+3 was spot on and easily won.
Bubble talk (2015)
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Re: Bubble talk (2015)
#12No macro collapse, and the first proposition didn't work out: Uber: 50B, Palantir < 40B, Airbnb < 40B, Dropbox < 10B, Pinterest ~10B, SpaceX < 40B. So total 160-180B market cap. Close, but not quite.
Biggest difference was that the public market valued a bunch of these companies waaay less than VCs did.
So it was a bubble then?
Re: Bubble talk (2015)
#13So... Did he win? I’m especially curious about part 3 :)
Part 1 didn't quite make it. Eyeballing it I think it's around $150B, which I think still substantially backs his point, but it loses him the bet. Part 2 was an easy win from Stripe alone. I scanned the YC '15 Winter list and I don't think I recognize any of them. Someone could track it better via Crunchbase, but I rather doubt that he bet correctly there either. EDIT: Oh, GitLab.
Part 3: Gitlab alone is almost $3B
Re: Bubble talk (2015)
#14The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Re: Bubble talk (2015)
#15I dont think he won the first bet did he? Airbnb, Palantir, Dropbox, Uber, Spacex, and Pinterest together are less than 200 bn and falling. All still pretty good companies (not you Uber), doing interesting things though. bet 2 - I have not done the calculation, but just stripe puts it way beyond the 27 bn figgure. bet 3 - plenty of good companies in that batch. Razorpay was valued at half a billion dollars in last ro…
Uber: 50.73 bln
Spacex: 33.3 bln?
Airbnb: 35 bln?
Palantir: 26 bln ?
Pinterest: 10.4Bln
Dropbox: 7.44 Bln
They are far from $200bln, so he certainly lost the first one. Might have won the other 3 though.
Re: Bubble talk (2015)
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
Biggest difference was that the public market valued a bunch of these companies waaay less than VCs did.
So it was a bubble then?
Not sure if it's the right nomenclature, since bubbles are supposed to be pop. Instead they just grew in value slower than they were.
Re: Bubble talk (2015)
#17Regardless of the fact that he missed by a bit, this type of writing is way more valuable than the standard NYT/Bloomberg "OMG IS IT A BUBBLE???" articles?
Re: Bubble talk (2015)
#18Wonder who took the other side and where they chose for him to donate to.
Edited due to ambiguity.
Re: Bubble talk (2015)
#19His bet was a parlay so it lost, but not by a lot. Had he been able to include Snapchat it probably would have done worse.
I think what we’ve seen in the last five years is that there’s some bubble-like irrationally exuberance but overall it’s far from 2000 all over again. Companies have high valuations but this time also often have financials and growth prospects to go with them.
Re: Bubble talk (2015)
#20I dont think he won the first bet did he? Airbnb, Palantir, Dropbox, Uber, Spacex, and Pinterest together are less than 200 bn and falling. All still pretty good companies (not you Uber), doing interesting things though. bet 2 - I have not done the calculation, but just stripe puts it way beyond the 27 bn figgure. bet 3 - plenty of good companies in that batch. Razorpay was valued at half a billion dollars in last ro…
It checks out if you move the much larger valuations in bet 2 to bet 1 as he really underestimated the companies in bet 2. Things are a bit random, so I'd say he arguably won the bet in spirit even though he didn't do it according to his own exact rules.