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Honestly, this is a bit of a relief. All of the AI nightmare scenarios (be they the Terminator kind, or the more realistic hyper-empowerment-of-a-few-elites kind) rely on that exponential growth continuing unimpeded. If there's no exponential growth, there's no runaway AI that swiftly outpaces human understanding.
The "Bitter Lesson" post from Rich Sutton from earlier this year [1] seems a very good complement to this article: he explain how all of the big improvements in the field came from new methods that leveraged the much larger compute available from Moore's law, instead of progressive buildup over existing methods. A great quote from McCarthy also regularly referenced by Sutton is "Intelligence is the computational part…
It could be that the slowing of Moore's Law results in a more diverse array of specialized computing hardware. After all, the resurgence of ML didn't happen because x86 got fast enough, but because video games - of all things - funded the maturation of a whole new category of massively-parallel chips.
Fake news. It has far more to do with the rise of distributed computing than the existence of GPUs.
Honestly, this is a bit of a relief. All of the AI nightmare scenarios (be they the Terminator kind, or the more realistic hyper-empowerment-of-a-few-elites kind) rely on that exponential growth continuing unimpeded. If there's no exponential growth, there's no runaway AI that swiftly outpaces human understanding.
Yet AI beat humans at every strategic game out there, from Chess and Go to StarCraft2. We don't have general AI, but in some fields, human understanding have already been outpaced.
Also, a minor nitpick: AI has not succeeded at beating the best players at SC2, though it did beat the vast majority of the ladder.
Honestly, this is a bit of a relief. All of the AI nightmare scenarios (be they the Terminator kind, or the more realistic hyper-empowerment-of-a-few-elites kind) rely on that exponential growth continuing unimpeded. If there's no exponential growth, there's no runaway AI that swiftly outpaces human understanding.
Yet AI beat humans at every strategic game out there, from Chess and Go to StarCraft2. We don't have general AI, but in some fields, human understanding have already been outpaced.
Honestly, this is a bit of a relief. All of the AI nightmare scenarios (be they the Terminator kind, or the more realistic hyper-empowerment-of-a-few-elites kind) rely on that exponential growth continuing unimpeded. If there's no exponential growth, there's no runaway AI that swiftly outpaces human understanding.
Let me fuel your paranoia a little. It’s likely that cloud computing will continue to see decreases in costs, which means the availability of computing will continue to raise after Mores Law has stopped giving. Quantum computers might play a role in increasing computational power in the next decade. Right now a lot of AI research is low hanging fruit recently made available with advances in CPU and GPU. After the adv…
Why would cloud computing continue to see significant decreases in costs once Moore's law stops? Clearly there will be some ongoing decline in infrastructure costs, but if your main requirement is for lots of compute (for AI) then it seems hard to maintain an exponential rate of improvement overall if the silicon is no longer getting faster and cheaper, and the exponential is what you need, else your costs get out of control quickly.
Honestly, this is a bit of a relief. All of the AI nightmare scenarios (be they the Terminator kind, or the more realistic hyper-empowerment-of-a-few-elites kind) rely on that exponential growth continuing unimpeded. If there's no exponential growth, there's no runaway AI that swiftly outpaces human understanding.
Yet AI beat humans at every strategic game out there, from Chess and Go to StarCraft2. We don't have general AI, but in some fields, human understanding have already been outpaced.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yet AI beat humans at every strategic game out there, from Chess and Go to StarCraft2. We don't have general AI, but in some fields, human understanding have already been outpaced.
The heck with all that. Show me the software that beats Roger, Rafa, and Nole at tennis!
I would be surprised if by the end of the century robots couldn't beat humans at every physical sport in existence.
It's likely that robots and robotically-enhanced humans will both be banned from competing directly with humans in sports, because it'll be no contest -- in the robots' favor.
The article discusses one of the impacts of compute performance growth rates slowing while compute demand (training AI models) is growing exponentially. The 'end of Moore's law' (as a measure of performance, not density) is probably the most significant "Tech" story of the next decade. Why? Because it is going to demand engineers who can write fast code over engineers who write code fast. A lot of frameworks and abst…
Rust will fare well. Ruby won't.
You know we've reach the end of Moore's law when balanced ternary computers become the norm.
Could it be that with Quantum Computing computational power will continue to increase exponentially?
Is Quantum Computing computational power increasing exponentially now?