The post-exponential era of AI and Moore’s Law
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The post-exponential era of AI and Moore’s Law
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Re: The post-exponential era of AI and Moore’s Law
#2The article discusses one of the impacts of compute performance growth rates slowing while compute demand (training AI models) is growing exponentially.
The 'end of Moore's law' (as a measure of performance, not density) is probably the most significant "Tech" story of the next decade. Why? Because it is going to demand engineers who can write fast code over engineers who write code fast.
A lot of frameworks and abstractions will be ripped out and thrown away as 'taking too much time for not enough benefit.'
Re: The post-exponential era of AI and Moore’s Law
#3The article discusses one of the impacts of compute performance growth rates slowing while compute demand (training AI models) is growing exponentially. The 'end of Moore's law' (as a measure of performance, not density) is probably the most significant "Tech" story of the next decade. Why? Because it is going to demand engineers who can write fast code over engineers who write code fast. A lot of frameworks and abst…
Rust will fare well. Ruby won't.
Re: The post-exponential era of AI and Moore’s Law
#4It'd be really weird if we could keep expanding Moore's law and surpass the brain on a performance per watt ratio.
Re: The post-exponential era of AI and Moore’s Law
#5The article discusses one of the impacts of compute performance growth rates slowing while compute demand (training AI models) is growing exponentially. The 'end of Moore's law' (as a measure of performance, not density) is probably the most significant "Tech" story of the next decade. Why? Because it is going to demand engineers who can write fast code over engineers who write code fast. A lot of frameworks and abst…
>Because it is going to demand engineers who can write fast code over engineers who write code fast.
I surely hope so, the waste mentality has to end.
Re: The post-exponential era of AI and Moore’s Law
#6Honestly, this is a bit of a relief. All of the AI nightmare scenarios (be they the Terminator kind, or the more realistic hyper-empowerment-of-a-few-elites kind) rely on that exponential growth continuing unimpeded. If there's no exponential growth, there's no runaway AI that swiftly outpaces human understanding.
Re: The post-exponential era of AI and Moore’s Law
#7I don’t agree fundamentally with this article. Correct details, but missing the Forest for the trees. There are too many elements at work evolutionarily speaking to ignore the emergence of God knows what. Plus our AI (not to mention our most basic computing axioms) are absolutely juvenile as we are brand new as a species to be developing anything at all that has to do with computing. That doubly goes for “AI”... whatever that means.
Re: The post-exponential era of AI and Moore’s Law
#8The article discusses one of the impacts of compute performance growth rates slowing while compute demand (training AI models) is growing exponentially. The 'end of Moore's law' (as a measure of performance, not density) is probably the most significant "Tech" story of the next decade. Why? Because it is going to demand engineers who can write fast code over engineers who write code fast. A lot of frameworks and abst…
Rust will fare well. Ruby won't.
Ruby isn't in the critical path, so that's a bad example.
In general, the real issue is the layers of abstractions between the hardware and the end user. The over complicated architectures. The constant re-invention of databases/operating systems/virtual machines at each layer.
Re: The post-exponential era of AI and Moore’s Law
#9The article discusses one of the impacts of compute performance growth rates slowing while compute demand (training AI models) is growing exponentially. The 'end of Moore's law' (as a measure of performance, not density) is probably the most significant "Tech" story of the next decade. Why? Because it is going to demand engineers who can write fast code over engineers who write code fast. A lot of frameworks and abst…
Rust will fare well. Ruby won't.
I don't have a hat in the game but why won't Ruby do well or not well based on this? It's not like basic webapps need to be much more efficient, and no one was writing high performance compute in ruby anyways.
Re: The post-exponential era of AI and Moore’s Law
#10The "Bitter Lesson" post from Rich Sutton from earlier this year [1] seems a very good complement to this article: he explain how all of the big improvements in the field came from new methods that leveraged the much larger compute available from Moore's law, instead of progressive buildup over existing methods.
A great quote from McCarthy also regularly referenced by Sutton is "Intelligence is the computational part of the ability to achieve goals", which (IMO) help picture the tight link between compute growth and AI.
It's only a few minutes read, I highly recommend it:
[1] http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html