So how long will it take until Asian Phone companies using Android get together to develop an alternative Android ecosystem? They could set it up in a neutral nation with profits going to all companies. So far, these always failed because it was only one company involved (e.g. Amazons app store) but will all major manufacturers involved, it would be much more profitable for developers to be on that app store than on…
As soon as Google goes too far against the Chinese government, the manufacturers will receive a notice that Android is no longer welcome as an operating system and they will flip the switch. Most Chinese citizens wouldn't care or even notice.
Other Asian companies are working on alternative OSes in case Google ever "pulls a Google" and kills off Android. Samsung has Tizen, which sucks, but could be better with some work.
[1] I bought a Xiaomi phone with a Chinese ROM and it took three days to get unlock permissions from Xiaomi to put the Global ROM on it that had Google apps. In that time I didn't feel like I was missing anything huge- except for being able to get directions since the maps app didn't have US street maps.