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Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

arstechnica.com

21–30 of 222 posts

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#21
Interestingly, for air travel, there's another strategy: Rely entirely on GPS and commanding from air traffic control (with systems and structure in place to minimize damage in case those systems fail or are insufficient).

That's what Zipline uses for their fully operational medical delivery system in Rwanda.

The drones are completely blind, directly, but they travel in pre-defined flight paths and communicate with one another and follow directions from flight control.

For self-driving cars, a similar situation may be extremely good GPS geolocation combined with network-wide sensor fusion and mapping. In principle, you could even do real-time optical or synthetic aperture radar from orbit or via persistent aircraft to allow the central controller to identify hazards and obstacles and to update maps in real time without much at all happening on-board except low-latency reactions. Most highways already have much of their length covered by cameras for the local Department of Transportation, and even many intersections and sidestreets have surveillance cameras. A low latency connection to that system, upgraded with higher fidelity, could significantly help autonomous systems. Might be another very helpful public good for cities to provide, much like GPS is provided.

...and on the engineering side, you can have vehicles designed specifically to reduce pedestrian injury, such as not having those large, boxy grilles on SUV. Such things are almost entirely cosmetic and reduce efficiency, so Tesla doesn't have them on their cars. Going beyond that, external airbags may help as well. Zipline uses a foam body and a fail-safe parachute to stop the vehicle if there's a problem.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#22
post #5

This is a (perhaps short-term) failure of first principles reasoning. Elon's known to favor thinking about things from first principles, and there's no theoretical reason that vision can't work. However, technical limitations might take a while to overcome.

Indeed. There's also a slightly less charitable interpretation–Tesla could't ship every car with LIDAR for cost reasons, so they're strongly incentivized to claim they don't need it.

That said, I don't think Tesla are wrong. If Tesla can deploy MobilEye-level automatic visual mapping (see https://youtu.be/GQ15HWCw_Ic?t=1381) this can obviate the need for LIDAR-based localization and dramatically improve their perception systems (by having very good prior information about all static obstacles, such as lane dividers).

Dynamic obstacle detection will still be worse than it would be with a vision+LIDAR approach, but not that much worse. Having superhuman ability along two axes (map-based priors and alertness / reaction time) is likely sufficient to drive better than humans, even if several remaining axes (dynamic obstacle detection and prediction) are worse.

Additionally, Tesla is not (AFAIK) using any structure-from-motion (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KT2KsN7yKo0) or stereo-vision (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SskSDjUG8ZY) techniques, but there's a chance that these could also improve perception, especially in tough cases where a single frame is not enough for good detection (e.g. white semi in sunlight).

LIDAR is not being used in the (compared to Tesla) small-scale AV systems of Waymo, Cruise, Aurora et. al because it's essential, but rather because it's convenient, and because the companies producing those systems want to give their AVs every advantage at any cost. I fully expect Tesla (and MobilEye) to do superhuman self driving without LIDAR, but it will take longer (i.e. not by EOY).

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#23

ITT: people who think they know better than the company that has been working on this stuff day in and day out for years lol.

... working on this stuff day and night ... —- in California.

I’ve been driving for 40+ years, millions of km, 1/2 during winter.

Now, Elon is a Saskatchewan boy, so he should know better. Perhaps he’s forgotten. Winter driving is at best 1/2 vision dependent, often much less. Many times, you have to actively ignore your vision (everything you see is “moving” sideways). Quite often, you’re modulating your throttle to maintain a tiny ratio of +/- acceleration that maintains static friction; as soon as 1 or more contact patches achieve dynamic friction, you’re entering a spin due to yaw forces induced by your other driven wheels.

Much of the time, the road surface adhesion characteristics are best detected by sheen, vibration, sound and guesswork/prediction based on temperature, sunlight, recent weather, etc.

Unless the vehicle has sound, vibration, and vision sensor integration — it cannot hold a candle to human driving, except in the most trivial driving scenarios.

Winter is a complete non-starter for any autonomous driving technology that I am aware of.

I don’t know if Lidar would really help much. It can’t punch through heavy rain/snow, at least not as well as radar anyway. Maybe it would help in trivial driving conditions. I think vision, sound, vibration, and radar with a powerful ANN trained by professional all-season winter drivers in challenging conditions might be useful, and eventually even good. It should be able to perform super-challenging evasion and recovery maneuvers that could save lives!

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#24
The big missing piece is not LIDAR, but causal reasoning. Autopilot and similar 'AI' cannot reason; it doesn't have a mental model to ponder 'what if' and can't use counter-factuals to ponder what would happen if it didn't do something. It's just glorified pattern matching currently.

Reading Judea Pearl's The Book Of Why certainly sobered my outlook on AI.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#25
post #5

This is a (perhaps short-term) failure of first principles reasoning. Elon's known to favor thinking about things from first principles, and there's no theoretical reason that vision can't work. However, technical limitations might take a while to overcome.

Vision alone fails pretty frequently even with a human brain and 700 million years of evolution behind it. Count me as a skeptic that cameras + computer will produce a safe self-driving system.

> 700 million years of evolution behind it

Sure, but only about 0.000014% of that time occurred while cars existed. It's not like we evolved to control big metal objects hurtling down artificially made flat surfaces.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#26

The big missing piece is not LIDAR, but causal reasoning. Autopilot and similar 'AI' cannot reason; it doesn't have a mental model to ponder 'what if' and can't use counter-factuals to ponder what would happen if it didn't do something. It's just glorified pattern matching currently. Reading Judea Pearl's The Book Of Why certainly sobered my outlook on AI.

Isn't that more of an indictment of the self-driving industry as a whole? In Tesla's case they are missing that, but they are also missing LIDAR (or some other thing to fill in that technological gap).

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#27

I wonder, though, if this had more to do with how much they are actually investing in AI vs electric car tech. Surely Tesla is an EV company first and an AI company second. I know they like to brag about their autopilot but it eems to me that having a lower cost car is more important than having an expensive lidar system on board.

Most car companies make lots of money on add-on features. The base model couldn't be super profitable, but the base model with the self-driving package probably makes some good money. Or it would if the didn't have to keep doing recalls to upgrade the hardware.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#28

The big missing piece is not LIDAR, but causal reasoning. Autopilot and similar 'AI' cannot reason; it doesn't have a mental model to ponder 'what if' and can't use counter-factuals to ponder what would happen if it didn't do something. It's just glorified pattern matching currently. Reading Judea Pearl's The Book Of Why certainly sobered my outlook on AI.

Well, that's not necessarily true... self driving in particular usually uses planning, which is basically all about 'what if'. But it's true this is relevant to AI in general.

Re: Tesla has a self-driving strategy other companies abandoned years ago

#30
There's a few things to keep in mind when discussing self-driving tech.

1) Self driving tech doesn't exist today. It simply does not. There's lots of people working on it and they are using different strategies, but it is not clear how long it will take, which strategy is technically superior, which strategy is more economical, etc etc. There's a lot of very strong opinions floating around (LIDAR is essential! No, vision and lots of data! No, 3D maps or bust, etc etc). It is important to keep in mind that we don't know the future, the people busy inventing it don't know how things will play out and outside observers know even less. The tech industry is littered with strong opinions which have aged terribly.

2) Musks's first principles aside, Tesla was never going to do LIDAR. They're in the business in shipping real cars to real people and there was never any possibility of mixing that with LIDAR. If they had gone with LIDAR and started a research program like Uber, they would have started years after Google, with less data, far fewer resources and absolutely technical advantage. It is far, far more likely that this program would have bankrupted them than beat google. In essence, whether Musk's first-principles is real or a sales pitch doesn't matter. Tesla's choice was their current approach, or nothing at all.

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