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Ancient farmers spared us from glaciers but changed Earth's climate: study

phys.org

21–30 of 80 posts

Re: Ancient farmers spared us from glaciers but changed Earth's climate: study

#21

Geeze this conclusion seems rather counter intuitive, a much smaller human population's pre-modern agriculture had enough of an impact on climate so much as to prevent an ice age?

Mainly because of deforestation (one of the causes mentioned in the article). French Gaul in Roman times had already been largely deforested in the previous centuries, some historians even suggest that the process had been underway since Neolithic times, that’s about 4,000-5,000 years ago. It’s relatively unconmplicated to get rid of large swaths of forrest without having to have access to modern industrial tools, you just need to put some good old physical work into it.

As a reference, I’m doing a mapping of Southern Romania’s forrests as they showed up in a 1860s Austrian map (it’s a hobby project that I work on during my spare time) and it’s crazy when comparing it to more modern times. As early as the 1920s (that is in less than 60 years) 60-to-80% of the forrests from the plane areas had disappeared, and that was not because of the introduction of modern technology, because most of the tree-cutting was being done with good old axes, but only because Romania had entered the international agricultural markets and that land was more economically valuable with grain or cows on it compared to trees (the same thing is now happening in Brazil).

Re: Ancient farmers spared us from glaciers but changed Earth's climate: study

#22
post #15
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s the downside to that strategy? It seems like a no-brainer at first glance

I think the main downside is that we are quite sure what would happen. The primary effect (a giant fucking algae bloom) is pretty well known. But the secondary effects are hard to predict and could be very negative. Running experiments on the planet we live on is usually frowned upon.

> Running experiments on the planet we live on is usually frowned upon.

Without another Earth to act as a control group, you could say experimenting is technically impossible.

Re: Ancient farmers spared us from glaciers but changed Earth's climate: study

#23
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the main downside is that we are quite sure what would happen. The primary effect (a giant fucking algae bloom) is pretty well known. But the secondary effects are hard to predict and could be very negative. Running experiments on the planet we live on is usually frowned upon.

> Running experiments on the planet we live on is usually frowned upon. We are in a big fucking experiment right now: what happens if we release fucktons of CO2 into the atmosphere? Most of the developed world doesn't give a fuck.

Purely anacdotal of course, but most of the really bad incidents I've been involved in with production systems were actually caused by a rushed response to an initial problem that seemed serious at the time....

Re: Ancient farmers spared us from glaciers but changed Earth's climate: study

#24
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the main downside is that we are quite sure what would happen. The primary effect (a giant fucking algae bloom) is pretty well known. But the secondary effects are hard to predict and could be very negative. Running experiments on the planet we live on is usually frowned upon.

> Running experiments on the planet we live on is usually frowned upon. You don't like to test in PROD?

I'd guess it's more that he doesn't want to test life support in PROD.

I feel that way myself, but I fear we aren't going to end up with any better choices.

Re: Ancient farmers spared us from glaciers but changed Earth's climate: study

#25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Running experiments on the planet we live on is usually frowned upon. You don't like to test in PROD?

I'd guess it's more that he doesn't want to test life support in PROD. I feel that way myself, but I fear we aren't going to end up with any better choices.

Clearly the answer is to create a copy of prod in a test environment (Mars?).

Re: Ancient farmers spared us from glaciers but changed Earth's climate: study

#26
post #12

If indeed ancient farmers (that were like 1/100 our population) already had "profoundly changed Earth's climate", so much for the "human activity couldn't be the reason for climate change today" argument...

Well the argument that human activity isn't the reason for climate change isn't completely ruled out by this historical evidence but I think it provides compelling evidence that only the dishonest can disregard.

Re: Ancient farmers spared us from glaciers but changed Earth's climate: study

#27

Geeze this conclusion seems rather counter intuitive, a much smaller human population's pre-modern agriculture had enough of an impact on climate so much as to prevent an ice age?

Remember that modern agriculture is very efficient from a land POV. Historically slash and burn or other techniques just chewed up farmland and led to mass deforestation.

Consider Vermont, which was basically clear-cut in the mid 19th century.

Re: Ancient farmers spared us from glaciers but changed Earth's climate: study

#28
post #21

Geeze this conclusion seems rather counter intuitive, a much smaller human population's pre-modern agriculture had enough of an impact on climate so much as to prevent an ice age?

Mainly because of deforestation (one of the causes mentioned in the article). French Gaul in Roman times had already been largely deforested in the previous centuries, some historians even suggest that the process had been underway since Neolithic times, that’s about 4,000-5,000 years ago. It’s relatively unconmplicated to get rid of large swaths of forrest without having to have access to modern industrial tools, yo…

Sure, but the study places the "pivot point" much back in time in the 7,000 to 5,000 years ago range (probably give or take a thousand years):

>"I noticed that methane concentrations started decreasing about 10,000 years ago and then reversed direction 5,000 years ago and I also noted that carbon dioxide also started decreasing around 10,000 years ago and then reversed direction about 7,000 years ago," says Ruddiman. "It alerted me that there was something strange about this interglaciation ... the only explanation I could come up with is early agriculture, which put greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and that was the start of it all."

Re: Ancient farmers spared us from glaciers but changed Earth's climate: study

#29
post #21

Geeze this conclusion seems rather counter intuitive, a much smaller human population's pre-modern agriculture had enough of an impact on climate so much as to prevent an ice age?

Mainly because of deforestation (one of the causes mentioned in the article). French Gaul in Roman times had already been largely deforested in the previous centuries, some historians even suggest that the process had been underway since Neolithic times, that’s about 4,000-5,000 years ago. It’s relatively unconmplicated to get rid of large swaths of forrest without having to have access to modern industrial tools, yo…

> It’s relatively unconmplicated to get rid of large swaths of forrest without having to have access to modern industrial tools, you just need to put some good old physical work into it.

Merely killing off predators like wolves will contribute to deforestation, because runaway deer populations will stop new tree growth.

Re: Ancient farmers spared us from glaciers but changed Earth's climate: study

#30
post #12

If indeed ancient farmers (that were like 1/100 our population) already had "profoundly changed Earth's climate", so much for the "human activity couldn't be the reason for climate change today" argument...

nobody making those arguments is making them in good faith and no amount of evidence will stop them from making it.
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