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Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

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Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#21

Post by galieos_ghost »

jlmorton wrote: post #16
galieos_ghost wrote: post #6

Not sure why people are shocked by this, it's just the basic principle of diffusion. As long as america continue to allow free trade our wealth and jobs will flow out of the country as countries seek cheaper labor and sell it right back to America with no restrictions. The standard of living is raising in other countries while lowering in the US. Labor is already getting too expensive in China for cheap goods so comp…

> As long as america continue to allow free trade our wealth and jobs will flow out of the country as countries seek cheaper labor and sell it right back to America with no restrictions. Settings aside the fact that the US currently enjoys very low unemployment, with a steady rate of job creation that is now the longest jobs expansion in recorded US history, why do you believe other countries are willing to manufactu…

Workforce participation remains low, wages are stagnant, buying power accounting for inflation is much lower than it was in decades past, all while corporate profits are at record highs.

The promise that outsourcing didn't matter because goods would be cheaper was a lie, Corporations are instead enjoying record profits on the difference in labor costs.

You can keep spouting the same talking points that economists and politicians have for years but there's a reason people like Trump and Bernie Sanders were able to have so much success, people are hurting. The phrase "Don't piss on my shoe and tell me it's raining" comes to mind.

The only reason people would vote for anti-establishment politicians is because the current establishment isn't doing it's job. If things were great someone like Trump would have never stood a chance.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#22

Post by craftyguy »

galieos_ghost wrote: post #17
endorphone wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments such as yours -- parroting Donald Trump like talking points -- are remarkable when you consider that the US has the second highest purchase power in the world . The US really has no incentive to allow this to happen Except that it has opened trade for US companies, and the reported numbers are often laughably misleading. Apple, for instance, nets almost all of the profits from an iPhone, yet in the trade bal…

Good for apple, good for the Chinese people working those jobs, bad for American citizens who would have been working those jobs. What is so wrong about using our leverage as the world's largest economy to protect the interests of our citizen's, just like China does?

So basically, "China is doing it, so why can't we"? They also heavily repress their citizens and are notorious for human rights violations.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#23

Post by SeanBoocock »

ekidd wrote: post #8

I'm deeply skeptical of any explanation that claims that we have both a "shortage of labor" and "downward pressure on wages": > If men and women from the ages 25 to 54 took part in the labor market... [t]hat would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor... > Trade with China flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, forced domestic firms to shift…

I would think then that companies who are understaffed because they cannot hire people with the specialized skills they need would lose out in the long run to competitors who are willing to pay market/above-market wages for talent. Anecdotally that doesn't seem to have been happening.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#24

Post by brightball »

ekidd wrote: post #8

I'm deeply skeptical of any explanation that claims that we have both a "shortage of labor" and "downward pressure on wages": > If men and women from the ages 25 to 54 took part in the labor market... [t]hat would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor... > Trade with China flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, forced domestic firms to shift…

Think professions where reimbursement is controlled by an outside entity like insurance or Medicaid. Even with supply and demand you can’t pay more than those will make possible. Additionally, in many cases you’ll end up with people working and providing services before finding out that they won’t be paid for it.

That’s just off the cuff though.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#25

Post by craftyguy »

curuinor wrote: post #4
NumberSix wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asteroid is discovered in deep space heading for Earth. Astronomers watch the asteroid approach Earth. Asteroid hits New York City. Millions die. Astronomers and media report: "Asteroid from deep space kills millions. Asteroid causes death of millions." No experiment is possible. Causation is clear.

I'm sorry to be seeming to make a straw man, but do you actually in sober thought think that economics is as well-understood as physics?

Did you just post a rebutal to your original comment calling for 'experiments'? If economics is as mysterious as you say, how can you design experiments that produce verifiable and reproducible results?

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#26

Post by yusuke10 »

On the one hand, US is doing great. US grew 3% annualized last year, on a base of 19T, the most in the world. That's very impressive considering how big the base is to even have such a big percentage. You can compare that to China, where they had to keep reporting a fake 7% growth despite their provinces confessing to a 20-30% fake revenue. In the last 40 years, America's middle class shrank 7%. However, the lower middle class shrank 7% as well, and the upper middle class grew 16%. (http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/21/news/economy/upper-middle-cl...) . Implying that alot of the lower middle and middle had moved up. Especially in certain cities like San Francisco or Santa Clara, where there is just an abundance of $130k+/year jobs (and contrary to popular belief, one can easily save $50-60k/year by renting a room in a house at $1000/month).

On the other hand, it seems like the lower class has barely budged, and has remained in place and their quality of life has suffered. They have been losing manufacturing jobs to China and other countries (20M at the height in 1970, 12M currently http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/07/news/economy/us-manufacturin...). However, now with an administration dedicated to bringing jobs back from overseas (with focus on manufacturing), and enacting tariffs on countries that competes by flooding the market and destroying local competition, the jobs for lower class should be growing starting this year. The current solar/washing machine tariff, and upcoming steel and aluminum tariffs against China should help.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#27

Post by oblio »

badpun wrote: post #20
endorphone wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments such as yours -- parroting Donald Trump like talking points -- are remarkable when you consider that the US has the second highest purchase power in the world . The US really has no incentive to allow this to happen Except that it has opened trade for US companies, and the reported numbers are often laughably misleading. Apple, for instance, nets almost all of the profits from an iPhone, yet in the trade bal…

> Apple, for instance, nets almost all of the profits from an iPhone, yet in the trade balance an iPhone magically counts as a $1000 deficit with China. What good does Apple's record profits do for the US? Apple is owned by shareholders across the world, and Americans benefit only insofar as they actually own Apple stock.

Normally those profits would be taxed in the US...

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#28

Post by narrator »

galieos_ghost wrote: post #6

Not sure why people are shocked by this, it's just the basic principle of diffusion. As long as america continue to allow free trade our wealth and jobs will flow out of the country as countries seek cheaper labor and sell it right back to America with no restrictions. The standard of living is raising in other countries while lowering in the US. Labor is already getting too expensive in China for cheap goods so comp…

The weird thing about your argument is if you take off the lense of national boundaries the argument gains an extra dimension and becomes more complex.

For example, I recently heard from a friend with family in China that Americans who go to China can make $50 an hour private English tutoring rich Chinese kids. How can wages be rising so much in China and they are still wildly undercutting us?

The other weird thing is Americans who move to low cost south east Asia locations and run dropship ecommerce stores that make $2000 a month and live like they were making 10 times that in the bay area.

The friend of mine who makes his living expenses for two years in Argentina in two months doing webdev.

The bottom line is someting is wrong with prices for things in America. Prices for education, price for health care, prices for rent. Everything is so expensive that people can't live on low wages and be content. When they just change their location all the prices wildly change relative to each other and it all makes sense.

I don't have an easy answer, but some unusual economic phenomenon is going on that transcends national politics and it is important for a individual who can operate internationally to take note. of it.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#29

Post by galieos_ghost »

craftyguy wrote: post #22
galieos_ghost wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good for apple, good for the Chinese people working those jobs, bad for American citizens who would have been working those jobs. What is so wrong about using our leverage as the world's largest economy to protect the interests of our citizen's, just like China does?

So basically, "China is doing it, so why can't we"? They also heavily repress their citizens and are notorious for human rights violations.

Yes? Why does the US have to fight in the global economy with one armed tied behind our back? And how are trade policy and China's human rights abuses in any way related?

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#30

Post by whereismypwd »

kmonsen wrote: post #12
ekidd wrote: post #8

I'm deeply skeptical of any explanation that claims that we have both a "shortage of labor" and "downward pressure on wages": > If men and women from the ages 25 to 54 took part in the labor market... [t]hat would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor... > Trade with China flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, forced domestic firms to shift…

We see this all the time in tech, cannot find people is usually cannot find people with the skills and experience we want for the price we are willing to pay. This will always be true if you offer less than the current market rate which startups seems to think they are entitled to.

I saw an ad here a few days ago on HN for a "Lead ML Researcher" for $85-100k + 0.5-2%.
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