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Venezuela’s Behind on Its Debt and Facing Two Huge Bond Payments

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Re: Venezuela’s Behind on Its Debt and Facing Two Huge Bond Payments

#21
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "average person" is guilty of voting the communist government. Corruption is just the normal result of communism/socialism.

As two notable countries of significant interest to HN readers recently proved, frustrated voters are easily led astray by populist demagogues with big promises and low tolerances for truth-telling.

It's generous to attribute it to "frustration".

Re: Venezuela’s Behind on Its Debt and Facing Two Huge Bond Payments

#22
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "average person" is guilty of voting the communist government. Corruption is just the normal result of communism/socialism.

As two notable countries of significant interest to HN readers recently proved, frustrated voters are easily led astray by populist demagogues with big promises and low tolerances for truth-telling.

[deleted]

Re: Venezuela’s Behind on Its Debt and Facing Two Huge Bond Payments

#24

If you run sovereign debt in a currency you don't control, you become a colony, not a country. Venezuela private firms should all be run through administration to wipe out the creditors and re-floated with Bolivar investment.

How would Bolivar help them if it becomes worthless? They need inputs (raw materials, services), and those are only partially available locally.

They are already too oil export heavy. Without proper inputs the outputs will be inferior, unexportable and inefficient.

Re: Venezuela’s Behind on Its Debt and Facing Two Huge Bond Payments

#25

If you run sovereign debt in a currency you don't control, you become a colony, not a country. Venezuela private firms should all be run through administration to wipe out the creditors and re-floated with Bolivar investment.

Nobody wants BSF. Plus the government does shenanigans with the exchange rate, with the official exchange rate having no relationship to reality. If you refloat debt in a different valueless currency that you control the exchange rate on, you're de facto defaulting - nobody wants your currency. They want hard currency. Re: currency you don't control, do you consider Ecuador a colony? They have debt in the sucre, whic…

"currency you don't control, do you consider Ecuador a colony? They have debt in the sucre, which is pegged to the dollar. Is most of Europe a colony of Brussels?"

You can make a powerful case that they are.

A country that doesn't control its money doesn't control its economic policy. Is there anything more important than the economy for a country?

A fair economic area need, first, a monetary and fiscal common policy, and, second, a policy choose in the interest of all the citizens in the area.

The Euroarea only have a monetary common policy and I'm not the only one that think that is not run in the interest of all the Europeans.

I can't talk about Ecuador, but historically, fixed exchange rates, as any fixed structure don't survive even small "earthquakes". It's even worse if it's not an fixed exchange rate, but a foreign currency. In the case of Ecuador, you can be sure that, at some point in the future, the economic policy run from Washington will be the opposite of what the country needs.

Re: Venezuela’s Behind on Its Debt and Facing Two Huge Bond Payments

#26
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody wants BSF. Plus the government does shenanigans with the exchange rate, with the official exchange rate having no relationship to reality. If you refloat debt in a different valueless currency that you control the exchange rate on, you're de facto defaulting - nobody wants your currency. They want hard currency. Re: currency you don't control, do you consider Ecuador a colony? They have debt in the sucre, whic…

You should ask some Greeks if they feel they are in a colony like position with respect to Brussels/Germany. Controlling your own money is a key factor to maintaining sovereignty. Goldbugs take this to a level where they desire personal sovereignty and thus a money not controlled by the government (gold or silver).

It's seldom for a debtor in need to choose the currency. If Greece kept drachma, they'd still need to borrow in euro or dollar as few would have drachmas to loan.

US can take loan in dollars because everyone has dollars to park, which is because everyone else has dollars too.

Re: Venezuela’s Behind on Its Debt and Facing Two Huge Bond Payments

#27
post #12

On August 25, 2017, US President Donald Trump issued an executive order limiting the government of Venezuela's ability to access certain types of international financing. This would certainly curtail the governments ability to ease the pressure of bond payments. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/25/exec... when you cant sell assets, you cant repay a bond. PDVSA, the nationalized oil asset of the st…

You probably mean well, but you are basically arguing against progress. The US might have ill intent, but even assuming ill intent, that intent is still better for the people of Venezuela than the current government which has left them starving and represses them.

Re: Venezuela’s Behind on Its Debt and Facing Two Huge Bond Payments

#28
post #12

On August 25, 2017, US President Donald Trump issued an executive order limiting the government of Venezuela's ability to access certain types of international financing. This would certainly curtail the governments ability to ease the pressure of bond payments. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/25/exec... when you cant sell assets, you cant repay a bond. PDVSA, the nationalized oil asset of the st…

regardless of what you think of Trump, this is the correct action. The maduro govt is not just full of issues, they are murdering and starving their own population and any funds are used to prop up the privileged few elite in the aristocracy. El mercosur is about to expulse venezuela so this is not just some yankee only EEUU foreign agression bs. If you support the Maduro government, you're against humanity at this point.

https://elhem.co/2017/07/27/nicolas-maduro-accused-of-crimes...

Re: Venezuela’s Behind on Its Debt and Facing Two Huge Bond Payments

#29
post #6

The paradox of Venezuela is a populist government that beasts its chest about foreign imperialism starving its citizens to make bond payments to foreigners. We're beyond the point where a sane democracy would have defaulted. The only conclusion I can come to involves cronies of the administration holding substantial amounts of the debt. The payments aren't on interest and principal, but for patronage.

They need to keep the capital flowing in order to fund the police/military that prop up the authoritarian regime.

It's difficult to figure out what's really going on there. I followed Abby Martin's reporting on the ground recently, and it's quite eye opening: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUYWrPiUeWY
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