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Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

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Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#21

Post by palebluedot »

John23832 wrote: post #7
adamnemecek wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investors invest based on promise of future value. How much is Ford expected to grow?

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

Will that actually result in growth for Ford, however? Electric vehicle sales in Ford may displace sales of non-electric vehicles; in other words, the net effect might not be more than zero. This would not really represent growth for Ford, in that case.

You are right about some of their resources, however I think it is a mistake to glibly discount the importance of the battery supply and manufacturing (and by extension, the charging infrastructure) -- that is arguably the hardest and most important part of an electric vehicle, and with Tesla's Gigafactories, that could represent an important advantage of Tesla.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#22

Post by cmarschner »

John23832 wrote: post #7
adamnemecek wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investors invest based on promise of future value. How much is Ford expected to grow?

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

Ford (and all the other car companies) has also huge liabilities - a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines, and costly dealerships that revolve around servicing a hugely complicated contraption made up of hundreds of mechanical parts. Much of this will be of zero value in the near future.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#23

Post by maxerickson »

mikeash wrote: post #17
John23832 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

I have heard many times that the traditional car companies are heavily outsourced aside from the drivetrain. If I haven't been misinformed there (quite possible either way!) and this is true, then outsourcing that would leave Ford not adding much value themselves. Even if it would work out for them, Tesla is pushing really hard to be a major battery supplier, so they could end up benefitting either way.

The Bolt uses a drivetrain built by LG.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#24

Post by mikeash »

John23832 wrote: post #16
stellar678 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is why Ford is unlikely to succeed at pivoting into the electric car market. The power and pull inside their company doesn't want them to. It will take superhuman leadership to overcome that force.

That makes no sense. Companies seek to be viable in the future. If Ford or GM feel that an electric car is on the horizon and that car will eat their (ICE) lunch, they will pivot. By your logic Tesla would have been locked out of the VC/investment market due to Big Oil. Money flows like water.

Individuals within a company seek to be viable in the future, which often leads them to reject innovation that might endanger their role.

History is littered with companies that refused to pivot into new technology until far later than they should have, because they were too heavily invested in the old way. American car companies suffered from this in the 70s, where they got thrashed by competition from small imports for quite a while before they could be convinced to stop concentrating on land yachts.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#25

Post by adamnemecek »

John23832 wrote: post #18
adamnemecek wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What infrastructure do you have in mind? Factories?

Factories, dealerships, a maintenance network, etc.

I can't imagine that all of those will remain usable and competitive without major investments. Note that doesn't need dealerships.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#26

Post by Shivetya »

John23832 wrote: post #7
adamnemecek wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investors invest based on promise of future value. How much is Ford expected to grow?

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

GM has for the most part done a good job so I am really surprised how much Ford ceded this segment to them. GM announces EV sales at end of the week and I am really curious how well the Bolt is doing at its still in limited number of states but will be in all by fall (September I think).

I really don't think there is any difficulty in making EVs now, its finding enough to support the market. While 200 is great for a base range I find it the absolute minimum for any pure EV and to be honest I won't go pure EV till I see 400+ (Drive a Volt now). Not all want/need two cars and even many families are constrained based on size/packaging of the car which led to my surprise when the 3 was a sedan which is not a growing market.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#27

Post by chefandy »

Wasn't overvaluing the potential of newer companies over established institutions with significant holdings one of the hallmarks of .com bubble ridiculousness? I'm not particularly knowledgeable about finance and economics– if someone that is knowledgeable has some insight, I'd love to hear it.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#28

Post by mikeash »

maxerickson wrote: post #23
mikeash wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have heard many times that the traditional car companies are heavily outsourced aside from the drivetrain. If I haven't been misinformed there (quite possible either way!) and this is true, then outsourcing that would leave Ford not adding much value themselves. Even if it would work out for them, Tesla is pushing really hard to be a major battery supplier, so they could end up benefitting either way.

The Bolt uses a drivetrain built by LG.

Right, so what is GM bringing to the table there? If the Bolt were to somehow become a best seller, how much benefit would GM see?

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#29

Post by briandear »

John23832 wrote: post #7
adamnemecek wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investors invest based on promise of future value. How much is Ford expected to grow?

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

Are we assuming that electric cars are the only future or simply one part of the future? As an example, what work is Tesla doing with hydrogen? Ford is doing quite a lot: https://corporate.ford.com/microsites/sustainability-report-...

We're also making the assumption that charge-battery-drive-the-car is the future

Battery power is an evolution of car tech but it isn't a revolution. Tesla is building wired telephones when the majority of the market is using wired telegraphs. A substantial improvement to be sure, but to suggest a company such as Ford is not able to grow is very short sighted-- they aren't standing still either. Tesla could increase production and sales by an order of magnitude and still have a minuscule market share.

Of course Tesla will grow, but they don't have a monopoly. The future value of Tesla is certainly greater than today's value, but to discount everyone else because we are analyzing this through a specific lens of perception is a folly.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#30

Post by maxerickson »

stellar678 wrote: post #11
John23832 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

> This is why Ford is unlikely to succeed at pivoting into the electric car market. The power and pull inside their company doesn't want them to. It will take superhuman leadership to overcome that force.

The electric Focus is competitive with the Nissan Leaf, at least on paper.

I think the economics aren't really there yet for them to bother with an electric platform (vs retrofitting electric drive into an existing platform). If they thought it made sense, they would be able to be producing at large volumes in a few years.

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