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Why billions of dollars of goods are stuck at sea

economist.com

21–30 of 224 posts

Re: Why billions of dollars of goods are stuck at sea

#21
post #16

This bankruptcy means that companies shipping goods are no longer going to be able to treat shipping as a fungible commodity and instead are going to have to price in a risk component as well. That suggests that the largest and best financed players are likely to be able to command a premium which will accelerate losses at smaller players. This would increase the spreads further and create a viscous loop. Does anybod…

They will just buy insurance, and the insurance companies will figure it out.

Re: Why billions of dollars of goods are stuck at sea

#22
It's not just retail goods on those ships. There is also a great deal of parts that are needed by US manufacturing lines. That creates a ripple effect down the line as missed parts causes snags in the lines. Businesses have gotten pretty good with Just In Time building, so the loss of a few containers will put a snag into it. Some places may have predicted this and gotten alternative parts flows, but that puts a strain on the people making the goods to go into the containers to come here.

Third quarter reporting should be very interesting for the markets.

Re: Why billions of dollars of goods are stuck at sea

#24

Amazing that this happens on top of such low prices for crude oil. What's going on? EDIT: Yes I read the article. Seriously, oil is so cheap and this still happened? It's just mind boggling to me.

A lot more cargo is getting shipped by rail to Europe from China with new tracks being opened up through Central Asia. Also, energy pipelines are getting set up between Russia and China, reducing the need to ship crude oil. This is largely due to the "One Belt, One Road" initiative that China is working on. It's basically a plan to build transport infrastructure all throughout Asia.

Re: Why billions of dollars of goods are stuck at sea

#25
post #9
post #5

Huh. For some reason I thought cargoes had bonds that would allow them to make port and unload. OTOH, some enterprising sailors could make some money relieving stranded ships of their contents.

These ships would be incredibly expensive and slow to unload at sea. Container shipping is very dependent on dock-side infrastructure. One of the reasons why shipping switched to containers (and away from break-bulk) is precisely because it is difficult to steal from containers.

Expensive, slow and dangerous. Not all containers will be accessible at sea. Getting to some of them may require removal of cables used to steady tall stacks. And unloading any containers haphazardly risks unbalancing the ship.

Re: Why billions of dollars of goods are stuck at sea

#26
post #16

This bankruptcy means that companies shipping goods are no longer going to be able to treat shipping as a fungible commodity and instead are going to have to price in a risk component as well. That suggests that the largest and best financed players are likely to be able to command a premium which will accelerate losses at smaller players. This would increase the spreads further and create a viscous loop. Does anybod…

They will just buy insurance, and the insurance companies will figure it out.

That will have the same result. Insurance companies will price based on risk, with the safer carriers having lower risk and hence lower prices. The less safe carriers will have more expensive insurance and be at a disadvantage to the safer carriers. Lack of customers will put them closer to bankruptcy and the circle continues.

Re: Why billions of dollars of goods are stuck at sea

#28

This seems like a really good sign. We can only hope global shipping continues to shrink until we can get down to a level of consumer purchasing that is sustainable for the ecology of the planet.

It's quite the opposite.

The less money people have the less they care about the environment. That's why as quality of life went up in Western countries the environment became more and more important to people, to the point that it's almost an obsession for some people now.

Re: Why billions of dollars of goods are stuck at sea

#29

It's not just retail goods on those ships. There is also a great deal of parts that are needed by US manufacturing lines. That creates a ripple effect down the line as missed parts causes snags in the lines. Businesses have gotten pretty good with Just In Time building, so the loss of a few containers will put a snag into it. Some places may have predicted this and gotten alternative parts flows, but that puts a stra…

If someone needed those parts to keep their assembly lines running, why wouldn't they just put up the money to have the ships unloaded? We're only talking about a few million to move these goods.

Re: Why billions of dollars of goods are stuck at sea

#30
post #18

It'll be interesting to see this play out. If the bankrupt company is unwilling or unable to unload their cargo, could another company start repossessing the ships? I'd imagine it would have to on the behalf of several companies; likely, the most heavily invested insurance companies act as a group.

yes but that is the major fear the docks have. No debt holder is going to repossess a ship at sea they are going to wait for them to dock then file a court order to prevent them from undocking until the repossession proceedings finish. This means they are stuck at the dock taking up space the dock owners want to use to unload other ships so they just ban these ships from their docks letting another dock deal with it…

I don't understand how they can legally do that. When you repossess a truck you don't get to leave it at someone else's loading dock for free.

Wouldn't it be the creditor's obligation to pay the fees or move it somewhere else to be moored?

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