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How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

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Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#21

Post by Retric »

pkorzeniewski wrote: post #15
dsfyu404ed wrote: post #12

A cheap used economy car will still have the lowest cost per mile for a very long time.... When you factor purchase price into the equation gas vehicles win by a long ways since you need X years of EV economy cars on the market before you can get an X year old used EV. EV's will need to fill the same market segment as today's Chevy Aveos and Toyota Yarii (plural of Yaris?) for a decade or more before they're competit…

The main goal of the car industry (actually almost every industry, but car is one of the most expensive things people buy in their life, with the biggest impact on environment) is to make people buy new car every few years, even if the old one is perfectly fine - they want you to feel like you're missing something in life by driving the "old model". I'm probably biased, because I drive a 1998 Mercedes, but I could ea…

Accidents remove a lot of cars every year. Other than that, I think self driving cars are going to push a few rounds of upgrades. Also, safety is still improving fairly rapidly so keeping a 20 year old car is probably a poor tradeoff.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#22

Post by madaxe_again »

jblok wrote: post #18
madaxe_again wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assume a constant price for gasoline, which is a bold assumption, given that the oil markets are currently gyrating wildly, and have been for some time - we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale, which will provide a big push towards EV adoption, and will drive people away from older vehicles which guzzle gas. No, it isn't going to be overnight, but lik…

Interesting idea buying property on busy roads, but why would they become less busy solely because of electric cars? Yes, they may be quieter and cleaner, but you still have the eyesore of a road, and the associated people that roads bring.

Because with EVs we will see the rise of autonomous vehicles - once you have a car that is run by a computer and powered by electricity, and self-driving tech is available and affordable, it becomes a no-brainer.

Once autonomous vehicles become prevalent, traffic volume should drop, as we'll see less car ownership and more car use, meaning fewer cars parking, better traffic flow, etc. I believe the future of road transport is going to be something very like uber, just with no human drivers, and cars that only ever stop to recharge and to let passengers in and out.

The latter part of the equation (autonomy and associated behavioural changes) will take longer than the transition to EVs, and will happen, barring legislation fighting it.

As to the eyesore bit - I should clarify - I've been buying property on polluted, busy, pretty roads. Think A-roads in town centres, with houses on one side and a park on the other.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#23

Post by agumonkey »

PinguTS wrote: post #5

This article has lots of false assumptions. To phrase it positively, the article ignores a lot of facts. EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have a smaller number of parts, making them easier to assemble. At similar scale to gas vehicles, electric vehicles should indeed be lower cost to built. In addition, EVs have many fewer moving parts (in the engine and drivetrain in particular) than inte…

It reminds me of SSDs, they're very sophisticated inside, but no matter how complex, they're still going to replace mechanical HDDs.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#24

Post by Avshalom »

PinguTS wrote: post #5

This article has lots of false assumptions. To phrase it positively, the article ignores a lot of facts. EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have a smaller number of parts, making them easier to assemble. At similar scale to gas vehicles, electric vehicles should indeed be lower cost to built. In addition, EVs have many fewer moving parts (in the engine and drivetrain in particular) than inte…

Quite. In my life time of cars the engine and drive train has always required the least amount of maintenance out of anything in a car; meanwhile I don't think I've owned a car that didn't have a window actuator go out.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#25

Post by gregwtmtno »

The author believes that electric cars will be better for ride sharing services than gasoline cars because the cost per ride is cheaper.

I'm not sure I agree. Unlike private cars, shared cars are in use many more hours per day and charging time versus gasoline refill time should be considered.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#26

Post by icebraining »

gregwtmtno wrote: post #25

The author believes that electric cars will be better for ride sharing services than gasoline cars because the cost per ride is cheaper. I'm not sure I agree. Unlike private cars, shared cars are in use many more hours per day and charging time versus gasoline refill time should be considered.

Three years ago Tesla already had a robot that could replace a battery in 90s: https://www.teslamotors.com/videos/battery-swap-event

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#27

Post by frgewut »

steve19 wrote: post #16
madaxe_again wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assume a constant price for gasoline, which is a bold assumption, given that the oil markets are currently gyrating wildly, and have been for some time - we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale, which will provide a big push towards EV adoption, and will drive people away from older vehicles which guzzle gas. No, it isn't going to be overnight, but lik…

> we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale Do you really believe that in a short period of time gasoline is going to cost a few orders of magnitude more... that's 1,000x the current cost? Post-fracking that's unlikely to happen. Prices may return to previous levels, but they won't move much more than that. Alternative energy will reduce demand for oil and t…

If your closest gas pump is 20 miles away fuel cost wouldn't matter anyway.

I also expect that a lot of pumps will be closed in cities because of pollution, smells and other factors.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#28

Post by dovdov »

So you get an electric model of the same car. It costs about double. Even if fuel prices double/triple, you can easy fill up at least for 10 years off the difference. Now, ask yourself how often do you replace your car. :)

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#29

Post by 05 »

madaxe_again wrote: post #22
jblok wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting idea buying property on busy roads, but why would they become less busy solely because of electric cars? Yes, they may be quieter and cleaner, but you still have the eyesore of a road, and the associated people that roads bring.

Because with EVs we will see the rise of autonomous vehicles - once you have a car that is run by a computer and powered by electricity, and self-driving tech is available and affordable, it becomes a no-brainer. Once autonomous vehicles become prevalent, traffic volume should drop, as we'll see less car ownership and more car use, meaning fewer cars parking, better traffic flow, etc. I believe the future of road tra…

> Once autonomous vehicles become prevalent, traffic volume should drop

That's simply not true; not only will SDCs create 'empty miles' of 0-passenger cars, but they will make people more comfortable with longer commutes (you can sleep on the way to work now), and with average commute getting longer we'll get more passenger-miles.

Sharing won't really pick up (except on the low end, displacing public transport) because SDCs are pretty cheap as is, and people generally prefer their personal space unmolested by others.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#30

Post by edent »

gregwtmtno wrote: post #25

The author believes that electric cars will be better for ride sharing services than gasoline cars because the cost per ride is cheaper. I'm not sure I agree. Unlike private cars, shared cars are in use many more hours per day and charging time versus gasoline refill time should be considered.

That's true enough. But rapid chargers can "fill" an electric vehicle in 30 minutes. A typical London taxi driver does around 200 miles per day.

So, depending on usage patterns, that's a recharge over 30 minute lunch break - and maybe a short top-up every time they go to the loo.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10...

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