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How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

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Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#11

Post by perbu »

PinguTS wrote: post #5

This article has lots of false assumptions. To phrase it positively, the article ignores a lot of facts. EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have a smaller number of parts, making them easier to assemble. At similar scale to gas vehicles, electric vehicles should indeed be lower cost to built. In addition, EVs have many fewer moving parts (in the engine and drivetrain in particular) than inte…

I think you're overestimating the battery capacity loss. There is a Dutch study which concludes the following:

Based on 84 data points from the 85-kWh version of the Model S and six from 60-kWh cars, the study concludes that the Model S will retain about 94 percent of its capacity after 50,000 miles, with losses thereafter shrinking to about 1 percent per 30,000 miles.

That means that after 100,000 miles, the typical Model S is projected to retain about 92 percent of its battery capacity and range.

So what "fact" you are relying on stating the battery will have to be replaced between 3 and 6 years is probably not very factual. Other, simpler EVs, lacking the rather sophisticated battery management system of the Model S might degrade quicker - especially in warmer climates, but nowhere near as fast as you state.

Other than that, you're right in that most EVs are almost as complex as a modern ICE. They need to be checked regularly and will need repairs.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#12

Post by dsfyu404ed »

A cheap used economy car will still have the lowest cost per mile for a very long time....

When you factor purchase price into the equation gas vehicles win by a long ways since you need X years of EV economy cars on the market before you can get an X year old used EV. EV's will need to fill the same market segment as today's Chevy Aveos and Toyota Yarii (plural of Yaris?) for a decade or more before they're competitive in price at the bottom chunk of the used car market. E.g. if a 2030 Civic EV is price competitive with a 2030 Civic gasoline then it'll be 2045 or later before they're both competing for the "cheapest cost per mile." Theoretically, the EV wins that hands down because when purchase price is so small the operating cost dominates the cost per mile (less maintenance, cheaper gas). The problem with that is that with current tech you won't be able to find a 15yo EV without trashed batteries, so the hypothetical $2k 2030 gas civic vs $2k 2030 EV civic comparison goes out the window because the EV needs batteries replaced or will need them replaced soon and you can't exactly buy used batteries at the junkyard (they wear out) so you'll need to shell out big bucks for that new replacement battery, and I'd bet that whatever a new battery costs in 2045 will still buy a heck of a lot of gas and maintenince...

"But storage tech will improve and batteries will be able to withstand a bajillion cycles without replacement" Sure, but why would the OEMs put a big battery that's good to 1,000,000mi in a car when they can get away with one that's good to half that, reduce cost, weight, etc

TD;DR, EVs will be cheaper soon the same way cars will all be driving themselves next year.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#13

Post by pmontra »

A car sharing service in Milan, Italy, is using small two seater electric cars from China.

Prompted by this article I finally investigated and found them at http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-eec-l7e-80-elect... They're quoted with a maximum price of $8000.

They're definitely made for driving inside a city. Not very good suspensions (don't drive too fast on cobble stones) but good torque (easily beats a gas car out of a green light). 120 km of autonomy, which is good enough in the typical European city center, apparently 80 km/h max speed, which again is more than enough there. Very easy to park.

More important matters:

Would I survive a crash? They're very tiny...

How long to recharge?

Operating costs? I'm paying 19 Eurocents per minute, all included.

Do they compete with gas cars? The other two car sharing companies in Milan have gas cars and cost 25 and 29 cents per minute. I prefer the electric one: it's a shakier ride but cheaper and more fun because of the torque.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#14

Post by madaxe_again »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #12

A cheap used economy car will still have the lowest cost per mile for a very long time.... When you factor purchase price into the equation gas vehicles win by a long ways since you need X years of EV economy cars on the market before you can get an X year old used EV. EV's will need to fill the same market segment as today's Chevy Aveos and Toyota Yarii (plural of Yaris?) for a decade or more before they're competit…

You assume a constant price for gasoline, which is a bold assumption, given that the oil markets are currently gyrating wildly, and have been for some time - we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale, which will provide a big push towards EV adoption, and will drive people away from older vehicles which guzzle gas.

No, it isn't going to be overnight, but like most transitions, it's going to happen far more quickly than you think. In 1905 people thought that most people would still be using horses in a century, that cars were just too expensive and niche, that horses were good enough. Horses were obsolete within 15 years of private automobiles being a thing - by 1920 more freight was hauled and more passenger-miles were travelled by internal combustion than horse, in the US.

EVs have been around for seven years, in a "real" form, give or take, their adoption rate is similar to that of the original gasoline automobiles when compared to horses.

I give it seven more years before they're dominant.

I'm also putting my money where my mouth is, and I've been buying up nice dirt cheap houses on busy, noisy, polluted roads. They'll be nice, not so cheap houses on less busy, quiet, clean roads in fifteen years.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#15

Post by pkorzeniewski »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #12

A cheap used economy car will still have the lowest cost per mile for a very long time.... When you factor purchase price into the equation gas vehicles win by a long ways since you need X years of EV economy cars on the market before you can get an X year old used EV. EV's will need to fill the same market segment as today's Chevy Aveos and Toyota Yarii (plural of Yaris?) for a decade or more before they're competit…

The main goal of the car industry (actually almost every industry, but car is one of the most expensive things people buy in their life, with the biggest impact on environment) is to make people buy new car every few years, even if the old one is perfectly fine - they want you to feel like you're missing something in life by driving the "old model". I'm probably biased, because I drive a 1998 Mercedes, but I could easily afford a brand new one, yet I can't find a reason good enough to justify this - sure, it would be nice to have the interior in perfect condition, made from better materials, but everything else is just a gimmick. My car has 200kkm on the clock and is absolutely reliable, cheap to maintain, comfortable, safe and a blast to drive. If people would choose quality cars and drive them until they fall apart, there would be 10x less cars produced each year.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#16

Post by steve19 »

madaxe_again wrote: post #14
dsfyu404ed wrote: post #12

A cheap used economy car will still have the lowest cost per mile for a very long time.... When you factor purchase price into the equation gas vehicles win by a long ways since you need X years of EV economy cars on the market before you can get an X year old used EV. EV's will need to fill the same market segment as today's Chevy Aveos and Toyota Yarii (plural of Yaris?) for a decade or more before they're competit…

You assume a constant price for gasoline, which is a bold assumption, given that the oil markets are currently gyrating wildly, and have been for some time - we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale, which will provide a big push towards EV adoption, and will drive people away from older vehicles which guzzle gas. No, it isn't going to be overnight, but lik…

> we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale

Do you really believe that in a short period of time gasoline is going to cost a few orders of magnitude more... that's 1,000x the current cost?

Post-fracking that's unlikely to happen. Prices may return to previous levels, but they won't move much more than that. Alternative energy will reduce demand for oil and therefor depress the price of oil, not the other way around.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#17

Post by madaxe_again »

steve19 wrote: post #16
madaxe_again wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assume a constant price for gasoline, which is a bold assumption, given that the oil markets are currently gyrating wildly, and have been for some time - we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale, which will provide a big push towards EV adoption, and will drive people away from older vehicles which guzzle gas. No, it isn't going to be overnight, but lik…

> we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale Do you really believe that in a short period of time gasoline is going to cost a few orders of magnitude more... that's 1,000x the current cost? Post-fracking that's unlikely to happen. Prices may return to previous levels, but they won't move much more than that. Alternative energy will reduce demand for oil and t…

Orders of magnitude doesn't mean 1000x - just 10x is enough.

As to fracking - the wheels have already fallen off, low oil prices forced a production hiatus, stop/start is inefficient and costly, and you need only look at the headlong rush in the UK that kinda petered out to get an idea of where fracking is going - nowhere.

The fossil sector is in big, big trouble - this chaotic oscillator will not stop until the market decouples from energy. The only question is whether they'll be allowed to collapse, or if we'll see state bailouts that keep them limping along.

As to reduced demand - that's also part of the problem. Oil prices are not purely demand driven, they have costs to meet, shareholders to appease, and massive capital investment needs that will not be met with a suppressed price, which will feed the death spiral they've been in for some five years now.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#18

Post by jblok »

madaxe_again wrote: post #14
dsfyu404ed wrote: post #12

A cheap used economy car will still have the lowest cost per mile for a very long time.... When you factor purchase price into the equation gas vehicles win by a long ways since you need X years of EV economy cars on the market before you can get an X year old used EV. EV's will need to fill the same market segment as today's Chevy Aveos and Toyota Yarii (plural of Yaris?) for a decade or more before they're competit…

You assume a constant price for gasoline, which is a bold assumption, given that the oil markets are currently gyrating wildly, and have been for some time - we're likely to see prices at the pump go up by orders of magnitude over a relatively short timescale, which will provide a big push towards EV adoption, and will drive people away from older vehicles which guzzle gas. No, it isn't going to be overnight, but lik…

Interesting idea buying property on busy roads, but why would they become less busy solely because of electric cars? Yes, they may be quieter and cleaner, but you still have the eyesore of a road, and the associated people that roads bring.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#19

Post by forgetsusername »

perbu wrote: post #11
PinguTS wrote: post #5

This article has lots of false assumptions. To phrase it positively, the article ignores a lot of facts. EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have a smaller number of parts, making them easier to assemble. At similar scale to gas vehicles, electric vehicles should indeed be lower cost to built. In addition, EVs have many fewer moving parts (in the engine and drivetrain in particular) than inte…

I think you're overestimating the battery capacity loss. There is a Dutch study which concludes the following: Based on 84 data points from the 85-kWh version of the Model S and six from 60-kWh cars, the study concludes that the Model S will retain about 94 percent of its capacity after 50,000 miles, with losses thereafter shrinking to about 1 percent per 30,000 miles. That means that after 100,000 miles, the typical…

>There is a Dutch study which concludes the following

You should probably link to the study.

>3 and 6 years is probably not very factual.

3 years might be early, but I have a hard time believing that Tesla has hit on some magic as far as batteries are concerned. The drain on anything I have at home is far more than what you state; my phone battery certainly isn't much good after 6 years.. But I have no idea. I guess we'll see as the current Teslas age.

Re: How Cheap Can Electric Vehicles Get?

#20

Post by danmaz74 »

perbu wrote: post #11
PinguTS wrote: post #5

This article has lots of false assumptions. To phrase it positively, the article ignores a lot of facts. EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have a smaller number of parts, making them easier to assemble. At similar scale to gas vehicles, electric vehicles should indeed be lower cost to built. In addition, EVs have many fewer moving parts (in the engine and drivetrain in particular) than inte…

I think you're overestimating the battery capacity loss. There is a Dutch study which concludes the following: Based on 84 data points from the 85-kWh version of the Model S and six from 60-kWh cars, the study concludes that the Model S will retain about 94 percent of its capacity after 50,000 miles, with losses thereafter shrinking to about 1 percent per 30,000 miles. That means that after 100,000 miles, the typical…

Very interesting data, I too thought that the battery would degrade much faster.
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