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How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

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Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#21

Post by eru »

paulsutter wrote: post #6

Storage is the /only/ way for solar to provide baseload power. Pumped water storage is vastly cheaper than batteries, and a better example of grid scale storage today. I should add that battery prices are coming down as volume increases (manufacturing learning curve), but not as fast as photovoltaic cells. Elon Musk's goal with tesla is to boost battery production volume significantly to reduce the cost of batteries.…

Pumped water storage is awesome where you have the geography to support it.

Alas, that's not everywhere.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#22

Post by eru »

losvedir wrote: post #17
jimrandomh wrote: post #9

There's an economics caveat to interpreting solar prices, which I think may have put a lot of people on the wrong track. Suppose solar panels were priced such that, after accounting for installation costs and subsidies and everything else, solar was much cheaper than grid power and paid off quickly. Then pretty much everyone would want one, and the manufacturer would have a huge backorder. So the manufacturers wouldn…

> Suppose solar panels were priced such that, after accounting for installation costs and subsidies and everything else, solar was much cheaper than grid power and paid off quickly. Then pretty much everyone would want one, and the manufacturer would have a huge backorder. So the manufacturers wouldn't do that; instead, they'd price the panels a little higher, sell everything they could produce but not have the backo…

Manufacturers will sell as expensive as they can get away with. Of course, there's decent competition in this market to counteract that.

jimrandomh's scheme would require a significant amount of collusion between all major producers.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#23

Post by foota »

losvedir wrote: post #17
jimrandomh wrote: post #9

There's an economics caveat to interpreting solar prices, which I think may have put a lot of people on the wrong track. Suppose solar panels were priced such that, after accounting for installation costs and subsidies and everything else, solar was much cheaper than grid power and paid off quickly. Then pretty much everyone would want one, and the manufacturer would have a huge backorder. So the manufacturers wouldn…

> Suppose solar panels were priced such that, after accounting for installation costs and subsidies and everything else, solar was much cheaper than grid power and paid off quickly. Then pretty much everyone would want one, and the manufacturer would have a huge backorder. So the manufacturers wouldn't do that; instead, they'd price the panels a little higher, sell everything they could produce but not have the backo…

It could depend on a lot of things. If at a price of $100 you have 10 buyers, and at $200 you have 8 buyers, you'll clearly sell at $200.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#24

Post by icefox »

martinald wrote: post #11

I think the issue is that OK, say we managed to get to 100% electricity being solar when the sun is shining. You'd still have the time the sun is not shining, which would likely be more expensive than before (a gas powered plant would only be running half the time - effectively doubling its capital/construction cost per kWh). So you'd definitely have an improvement on some levels but I'm not sure that would really he…

Of course if the more solar we get combined with cheap computing a market will emerge where there are two prices of electricity. Car charging will probably be first where they turn on/off depending on the solar output. Refrigerators and AC could follow.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#26

Post by AlexC04 »

I think the biggest impediment to widescale solar adoption is legeslative.

If you follow hackernews, you'll regularly see articles about places like Florida (and possibly Nevada if memory serves) where solar could easily power homes, but disingenuous legislative instruments and manipulativly worded ballot initiatives are housed to effectively block solar adoption.

This is an example of the top result in Google news http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/fre...

Not the greatest example I've seen, but again, if you follow HN you've seen variations on this story dozens of times.

Lobbyists protect big utilities instead of facilitate solar.

It's tragic to think how much further along we could be.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#27

Post by WaylonKenning »

martinald wrote: post #11

I think the issue is that OK, say we managed to get to 100% electricity being solar when the sun is shining. You'd still have the time the sun is not shining, which would likely be more expensive than before (a gas powered plant would only be running half the time - effectively doubling its capital/construction cost per kWh). So you'd definitely have an improvement on some levels but I'm not sure that would really he…

Everyone seems a bit obsessed by batteries as a storage method, when we have more traditional methods:

- Pumped-storage hydroelectricity - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricit.... Sure it's not suitable everywhere.

- There's always Molten Salt as well - http://www.solarreserve.com/en/technology/molten-salt-energy....

Also, solar isn't the be all and end all of renewable energy generation. Wind, Solar, Hydro, and Geothermal all have different strengths and weaknesses, and flexibility of generation is important.

But above all, I think security of supply is probably the number 1 requirement (unless you're a big fan of load shedding - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolling_blackout), and therefore, we'll still need energy sources that are reliable.

I predict a move away from coal towards natural gas. Sure it's not perfect, but it's not the worst either.

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#29

Post by laurencerowe »

icefox wrote: post #24
martinald wrote: post #11

I think the issue is that OK, say we managed to get to 100% electricity being solar when the sun is shining. You'd still have the time the sun is not shining, which would likely be more expensive than before (a gas powered plant would only be running half the time - effectively doubling its capital/construction cost per kWh). So you'd definitely have an improvement on some levels but I'm not sure that would really he…

Of course if the more solar we get combined with cheap computing a market will emerge where there are two prices of electricity. Car charging will probably be first where they turn on/off depending on the solar output. Refrigerators and AC could follow.

In the UK we have Economy 7 which offers lower rates at night. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_7.

It's generally used in homes with 'storage heaters' which heat up overnight and release heat during the day while you're out at work. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storage_heater

Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?

#30

Post by dredmorbius »

coredog64 wrote: post #14

There's another large effect that is left out of this story. As solar gets cheaper, and as we get more of it, it reduces the marginal pressure on fossil fuel production. That, in turn, makes fossil fuels cheaper and forces solar to get cheaper still to compete.

Solar doesn't much compete with petroleum. Its main effect is to reduce prices for coal. You'd expect that this might start to affect the profitability of coal companies eventualy....

For solar to affect petroleum, whose primary use is transport, we'll need to solve the storage problem. Tesla notwithstanding that has not happened. Electric vehicle sales were 0.66% of unit auto sales in 2015, and actually represented a sharp numeric decrease from 2014.

(The dollar volume is higher given the higher price of electrics, but it's unit sales you want to watch.)

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