How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?
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Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?
#2It says a lot about the progress of solar if the big worry is that it won't provide 100% of all energy by itself.
Even cheaper solar would be nice but I'm not sure why it would be better than a radical battery breakthrough or some cheap and cheerful fusion thing or some mix of different solutions.
Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?
#3My biggest concern with solar power (which, by the way, may be based on outdated information) is that the production of photovoltaic cells produce more greenhouse gasses than will be spared in the cell's operational lifetime.
To ask an actual question: is this still the case? (Was it ever?)
Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?
#4My biggest concern with solar power (which, by the way, may be based on outdated information) is that the production of photovoltaic cells produce more greenhouse gasses than will be spared in the cell's operational lifetime. To ask an actual question: is this still the case? (Was it ever?)
This is directly tied to EROEI. If the EROEI of a cell is greater than 1X, it will produce more energy that it took to manufacture it. In that case it's net-negative -- over time it replaces fossil fuels in a net sense.
Lately I've read EROEI numbers for solar PV from 10-15X.
So no, this is not true, and likely has not been true for a long time. It might have been true back when PV was kind of a lab curiosity and niche item.
Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?
#5My biggest concern with solar power (which, by the way, may be based on outdated information) is that the production of photovoltaic cells produce more greenhouse gasses than will be spared in the cell's operational lifetime. To ask an actual question: is this still the case? (Was it ever?)
According to this[0], solar panels are currently net energy producers, and are on track to get 'out of debt' by 2020.
[0] http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-04/solar-panels-n...
Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?
#6Storage is the /only/ way for solar to provide baseload power. Pumped water storage is vastly cheaper than batteries, and a better example of grid scale storage today. I should add that battery prices are coming down as volume increases (manufacturing learning curve), but not as fast as photovoltaic cells.
Elon Musk's goal with tesla is to boost battery production volume significantly to reduce the cost of batteries.
This is a really low quality article.
Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?
#7Storage is the /only/ way for solar to provide baseload power. Pumped water is vastly cheaper than batteries, and a better example of grid scale storage today. I should add that battery prices are coming down as volume increases (manufacturing learning curve), but not as fast as photovoltaic cells.
Elon Musk's goal with tesla is to boost battery production volume significantly to reduce the cost of batteries.
This is a really low quality article.
Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?
#8Installation has to get much cheaper. Installation is now more than the cost of the panels for most single family home installations. Home roofs are poor support surfaces.
Panels which are the roof have potential. The "solar shingle" vendors are making progress.[1]
[1] http://msdssearch.dow.com/PublishedLiteratureDOWCOM/dh_0944/...
Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?
#9There's an economics caveat to interpreting solar prices, which I think may have put a lot of people on the wrong track.
Suppose solar panels were priced such that, after accounting for installation costs and subsidies and everything else, solar was much cheaper than grid power and paid off quickly. Then pretty much everyone would want one, and the manufacturer would have a huge backorder. So the manufacturers wouldn't do that; instead, they'd price the panels a little higher, sell everything they could produce but not have the backorder, and invest the extra money into expanding their production capacity.
I think this is where we're currently at; solar power is in fact cheaper than grid power, it's just priced to support investment into expanding the manufacturing/installation capacity to properly take over.
Re: How cheap does solar power need to get before it takes over the world?
#10My biggest concern with solar power (which, by the way, may be based on outdated information) is that the production of photovoltaic cells produce more greenhouse gasses than will be spared in the cell's operational lifetime. To ask an actual question: is this still the case? (Was it ever?)
This is directly tied to EROEI. If the EROEI of a cell is greater than 1X, it will produce more energy that it took to manufacture it. In that case it's net-negative -- over time it replaces fossil fuels in a net sense. Lately I've read EROEI numbers for solar PV from 10-15X. So no, this is not true, and likely has not been true for a long time. It might have been true back when PV was kind of a lab curiosity and nic…
The interesting thing is the EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) for oil and gas has been falling for a century. I remember reading somewhere a claim that historical EROEI for crude oil.
Year EROEI
1920 125
1970 30
2010 15