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If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

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Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#21

Post by daragao »

mooreds wrote: post #10
daragao wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surviving through the 2000 one must have been a hard one, although it picked up fast ;) What were the signs? What could you see at the time that made sense to you that was something wrong? Or at the time you never felt anything was wrong, business was just really good. After the disaster happens everyone has good theories about the causes, but before no one really remembers to look to obvious signs which transcend ho…

Ha, hindsight is 20/20, as they say. I guess I would say that the voracious hiring, the dependency on other startups for revenue, the grand plans(an office in Londow and one in Singapore!), the hiring of high level executives that didn't seem to add value, the grand renovation (we had a custom built climbing wall in our building... was just got show), and later, the hamhandedness of the layoffs were all signs. Of cou…

Exactly... I'm looking for the rhymes! :D

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#22

Post by daragao »

kls wrote: post #11
daragao wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surviving through the 2000 one must have been a hard one, although it picked up fast ;) What were the signs? What could you see at the time that made sense to you that was something wrong? Or at the time you never felt anything was wrong, business was just really good. After the disaster happens everyone has good theories about the causes, but before no one really remembers to look to obvious signs which transcend ho…

I knew it was a bubble when they where doing 2 week Flash bootcamps (the big front end tech at the time) and the people coming out of them where commanding 90-100k with no experience. I will say the latest front end coding boot camps are looking a lot like the late 90's to me. I protected myself by signing on with a profitable startup in a market that was slightly more rescission proof than other markets.

That's what I feel, the frontend development movement is a very weird place right now, I like it but also fear it.

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#23

Post by daragao »

abcampbell wrote: post #16
mooreds wrote: post #2

Save money. 6 months expenses is a good rule of thumb. Network (which really means just keep in touch with folks you have worked with or met). At your current employment situation, keep your ear to the ground. You don't need to move to a big company (they have layoffs too) but you want to be aware of what is happening. Ask your boss questions about the business, and do your own research too. If your company is "defau…

Honestly, I started www.snow.ventures back in October to be an answer to this question. You have to seek diversification, one way to do it is to short the system so that people can feel safe in their particular idiosyncratic exposure. That's what we do.

wow! still haven't understood how your business works, but really going to read up the blog. you seem to be getting ready for winter alright! :)

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#24

Post by daragao »

gregatragenet3 wrote: post #13

Make yourself a rainy day fund, 6-12 months of living expenses. Make sacrafices to make that happen. This puts you in a position of power when you do have to look for a new job, you don't have to be desperate to take the first crappy low-paying thing that comes along. Never consider equity 'compensation' at non-public companies. If the job didn't include the equity would you accept? If not, pass or negotiate more cas…

traveling during the bad times seems like the perfect plan

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#25

Post by davismwfl »

Saving money is never a bad thing and is solid advice. But honestly I think it is a little basic for what you are asking.

Having lived through the dot come bust and other economic failures I have found that making sure you stay valuable and relevant are the most important factors. Someone pointed out making sure you are valuable to your current employer by taking on the parts of code that everyone dreads. That is good, so is just making sure you are a team player and are pulling your weight and pitching in wherever you can to make sure things stay on track. In the past, I jumped on a support desk, or stayed late to stuff mailings with sales staff etc. When people see you are willing to help make the team successful even outside your defined role and that you are showing loyalty most good people will return the favor. BTW -- all the things I did when times were less then ideal was what made being an entrepreneur easier, because sometimes you just have to suck it up and clean the bathroom before a client visit, or after depending on the situation.

If you have interest in starting your own thing, there is nothing wrong with doing so. Minimize current expenses, pay off as much of your debt possible while you are a FTE and save some cash up. While you are still working start your side business and take some time to get it right. Starting a business in a downturn is many times quite successful because many businesses look to outsource projects, minimize new head count etc.

One last point, many times enterprises use downturns in the startup sector to snap up talent that they have been squeezed out of getting. So usually enterprise hiring remains pretty robust for the first 12-18 months that I have seen. And this time around if there is a bubble in the startup side, enterprises are sitting on some of the largest cash reserves that I can remember seeing, so who knows how that will work out.

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#26

Post by abcampbell »

mooreds wrote: post #20
abcampbell wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, I started www.snow.ventures back in October to be an answer to this question. You have to seek diversification, one way to do it is to short the system so that people can feel safe in their particular idiosyncratic exposure. That's what we do.

That's a really cool idea. So you allow tech employees to hedge their career risk? Is that different than Lloyd's of London insuring Michael Flatley's dance legs ( http://money.howstuffworks.com/personal-finance/financial-pl... )? I visited your website but from a brief perusal it wasn't clear exactly what you can hedge, other than "particular systemic and market risks".

Well, you can think of your life portfolio being a combination of idiosyncratic risk (the particular business or unique exposures you have) and systemic risk (exposure to the broader system).

For example, way too many people were piling into SF real estate, right at the time when they felt the most rich from their employee stock options. http://www.snow.ventures/blog/2016/1/13/stopbuyingsfrealesta...

We have a systemic hedge product, and are working on building out the capabilities to create unique portfolios to hedge idiosyncratic risks.

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#27

Post by jjoe »

saddestcatever wrote: post #19
jjoe wrote: post #6

It's almost always too late to protect yourself when the bubble has popped. So prepare for the next pop. The only way to protect yourself is to build your own business. But not just any kind of business; a business that can absorb the chocks of cyclical troughs in an economy. What do people always need? * Drinking water * Food * Health * Shelter Pick one or two.

We're talking about a tech bubble here, not the apocalypse!

The listing is not what one should stock up on in their underground bunker. But rather things you can build a business around so you're OK no matter what the economy's doing.

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#28

Post by bbcbasic »

jjoe wrote: post #27
saddestcatever wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're talking about a tech bubble here, not the apocalypse!

The listing is not what one should stock up on in their underground bunker. But rather things you can build a business around so you're OK no matter what the economy's doing.

Foreclosures, debt collection, company administration, auctions ...

Re: If we are in a tech bubble, how can I protect myself?

#29

Post by mooreds »

abcampbell wrote: post #26
mooreds wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a really cool idea. So you allow tech employees to hedge their career risk? Is that different than Lloyd's of London insuring Michael Flatley's dance legs ( http://money.howstuffworks.com/personal-finance/financial-pl... )? I visited your website but from a brief perusal it wasn't clear exactly what you can hedge, other than "particular systemic and market risks".

Well, you can think of your life portfolio being a combination of idiosyncratic risk (the particular business or unique exposures you have) and systemic risk (exposure to the broader system). For example, way too many people were piling into SF real estate, right at the time when they felt the most rich from their employee stock options. http://www.snow.ventures/blog/2016/1/13/stopbuyingsfrealesta... We have a system…

Ah. At what level is the broader economic system that your systemic hedge helps? A city? A county? Anywhere within a reasonable car commute? The state? The country (which, for some Europeans, is all within a reasonable car commute)?

From your website, looks like the systemic hedge is focused on SV right now, which makes total sense. Bet once you get it nailed there, there's plenty of blue ocean in the other tech hubs.

Also, I bet you've seen this, but this book really opened my eyes to the fact that your expected lifetime income was another asset to think about diversifying: http://www.amazon.ca/Are-You-Stock-Bond-Financial/dp/0133115...

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