Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't really know the physics of this, but it seems CMEs only really effect power supply, not electronics in general. So we are taking massive damage to power infrastructure, but that can be repaired, and there are already mitigation plans in place. I'm probably missing something?
No, I think Avalaxy is confusing CMEs and EMPs (he's concerned about tractors, trucks, sundry battery-powered computers, and hugely inductive industrial machinery) and he's extrapolating wildly from his own inability to think outside the box (e.g. how checks / offline card processing work, how computer experts might be useful in a world where a good chunk of computing infrastructure suddenly gets fried, etc). A big C…
What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
21–30 of 31 posts
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#22I hate it that so little is being done to prevent the damage that will be caused by a CME. I think it's very likely that a CME will hit the earth within the next 100 years. If that will happen, western society will probably collapse. The only reason we can feed everyone right now is because we automated lots of things. The whole food chain is ran by machines, none of which will still be working after a CME. We won't…
What do you guys think? It depends on if you believe the following (from the article): Regions with high percentages of at-risk capacity could experience long-duration outages extending for several years. If that happens, then I agree with you when you say "we would see looting, famine (and huge starvation), violence, etc". Take a big city like NYC. Without electricity there is no water, no sewage treatment. Within a…
As for how to get water to people, you could use trucks to deliver water tanks. You could also have small scale electricity production through solar and wind and mobile electricity generators.
It'd require considerable effort to pull off, but we would have options.
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#23How would home installation solar panels be affected by this? Would they be ruined as well?
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#24I hate it that so little is being done to prevent the damage that will be caused by a CME. I think it's very likely that a CME will hit the earth within the next 100 years. If that will happen, western society will probably collapse. The only reason we can feed everyone right now is because we automated lots of things. The whole food chain is ran by machines, none of which will still be working after a CME. We won't…
What do you guys think? It depends on if you believe the following (from the article): Regions with high percentages of at-risk capacity could experience long-duration outages extending for several years. If that happens, then I agree with you when you say "we would see looting, famine (and huge starvation), violence, etc". Take a big city like NYC. Without electricity there is no water, no sewage treatment. Within a…
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, we'll have months to prepare, and at worst case, all we need to do is to cut our power supply for a couple of days. Yes, we need watch systems. Luckily we do have them, and they are getting even more precise with time. We got very luck that it didn't strike us sooner. Also, yes, the entire planet disconnecting for a few days is indeed a tragedy. But not at the dimension you (and the article) are describing.
> Yes, we need watch systems. Luckily we do have them. For those who haven't seen, distribution management is actually pretty cool. Balancing power on the grid is a real-time task and it's not as trivial as you might think. There are three phases of AC, different voltages, and different frequencies (think slightly-different so that they drift with respect to each other...). Generators are potentially out of phase wit…
http://i.imgur.com/3QuJjRY.jpg
Because ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_(computing)#/media/Fi...
The clip is from three years ago, though. So there's hope!
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#26Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Fixing all of that would probably take years, and in the mean time we would see looting, famine (and huge starvation), violence, etc. Things get fixed much faster than you think. The tramway in Hiroshima was running again within a week after the bomb destroyed the whole center, for example. Scientists said that trees would not grow there in 100 years, yet the city ended up looking like a normal city within 30 years…
It doesn't take that long for people to become frustrated at a lack of services they depend day to day on thoughtlessly. Also energy delivery systems that traverse state lines are not a city tramway. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_blackout_of_1977
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#27I hate it that so little is being done to prevent the damage that will be caused by a CME. I think it's very likely that a CME will hit the earth within the next 100 years. If that will happen, western society will probably collapse. The only reason we can feed everyone right now is because we automated lots of things. The whole food chain is ran by machines, none of which will still be working after a CME. We won't…
The article is unspecific about the short-term vs long-term effects. Assuming a perfect world where there's a 12hrs notice and everyone is informed, we unplug all devices and shut down the power grid. We plug them back a day later, whenever we notice the ground current isn't steong anymore. Would we still have a lot of damage?
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, I think Avalaxy is confusing CMEs and EMPs (he's concerned about tractors, trucks, sundry battery-powered computers, and hugely inductive industrial machinery) and he's extrapolating wildly from his own inability to think outside the box (e.g. how checks / offline card processing work, how computer experts might be useful in a world where a good chunk of computing infrastructure suddenly gets fried, etc). A big C…
I always understood that CMEs cause EMPs, so that's what I was talking about.
Google keyword: Faraday's Law of Induction
Kirchoff's Voltage Law (sum of voltages around a loop is zero) breaks when there's a changing magnetic field poking through the loop. The amount it breaks by is V=A*dB/dt where V is "extra" voltage, A is area of the loop, and dB/dt is change in magnetic field with time.
An EMP creates a shockwave of enormous dB/dt. Even loops with small A can induct enough voltage to fry sensitive electronics.
A CME has dB/dT of 5mT/min (linked article). Fridge magnets are ~5mT (wikipedia) so you could make a local field with similar dB/dt by walking very slowly towards your computer while carrying a fridge magnet. Of course, unlike fridge magnet vs computer, CMEs are damaging because A is massive (distribution infrastructure is a big loop) so even though dB/dt is tiny they can fry power lines.
That is, unless real-time distribution management notices voltages starting to go haywire and shuts them down because a CME isn't instantaneous and hard to anticipate like an EMP. Or circuit breakers do their job because voltage / km is relatively small. Or inductive loads (anything with a motor or transformer in the circuit) protect themselves from what essentially looks like just another voltage spike (they happen all the time because every time you shut off a poorly designed inductive load it kicks a high voltage back onto the line). Or TVS diodes do the same for sensitive electronics somehow connected without a transformer...
tl;dr a CME is not like an EMP. Same physics equation but with very different numbers.
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
> CMEs and EMPs I'm confused how an EMP and a CME differ. Aren't they both magnetic disturbances that affect electronics due to the fact that electromagnetism is one and the same?
Perhaps there's a difference in intensity and duration. Wikipedia indicates[0] that an EMP could generate 50kV/m electric fields lasting ~1μs, a second component similar to lightning lasting ~1s (electric field intensity not listed), and a third, long-term component that lasts hundreds of seconds. CMEs, it appears, only generate the third, long-lasting type of electric disturbance. According to NASA[1], these have el…
Claims a 1km copper wire with 10mm has a resistance of ~0.2Ohms. But I don't think it's ok to use normal resistance for pulses that last on the order of microseconds. I imagine capacitance and inductance play a very significant role.
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#30I hate it that so little is being done to prevent the damage that will be caused by a CME. I think it's very likely that a CME will hit the earth within the next 100 years. If that will happen, western society will probably collapse. The only reason we can feed everyone right now is because we automated lots of things. The whole food chain is ran by machines, none of which will still be working after a CME. We won't…
> Fixing all of that would probably take years, and in the mean time we would see looting, famine (and huge starvation), violence, etc. Things get fixed much faster than you think. The tramway in Hiroshima was running again within a week after the bomb destroyed the whole center, for example. Scientists said that trees would not grow there in 100 years, yet the city ended up looking like a normal city within 30 years…
Because things were working other places.
Example 1: your town catches on fire and every building burns. Everybody leaves your town, or people from other towns bring you supplies.
Example 2: Every town catches on fire and every building burns. There is no where to go. People from other towns are in the same situation.
You run into the bootstrap problem. Everybody needs the resources to get going again, but there will not be enough resources to get everybody going at once. If you don't get the resources to get going quickly you might die of starvation or exposure, so you're willing to fight for them. Who gets the resources?