What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
1–10 of 31 posts
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#2I hate it that so little is being done to prevent the damage that will be caused by a CME. I think it's very likely that a CME will hit the earth within the next 100 years. If that will happen, western society will probably collapse. The only reason we can feed everyone right now is because we automated lots of things. The whole food chain is ran by machines, none of which will still be working after a CME. We won't be able to purchase anything because our electronic payment systems won't work, many of us will lose our jobs (because the computers are broken) and so on. Fixing all of that would probably take years, and in the mean time we would see looting, famine (and huge starvation), violence, etc.
Personally I'm trying to be prepared for a CME by at least having a food stash for a couple of months, plus all the other necessities. I wish governments would be doing more as well.
What do you guys think? Am I wrong here or is this problem just not being taken serious enough?
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#3I hate it that so little is being done to prevent the damage that will be caused by a CME. I think it's very likely that a CME will hit the earth within the next 100 years. If that will happen, western society will probably collapse. The only reason we can feed everyone right now is because we automated lots of things. The whole food chain is ran by machines, none of which will still be working after a CME. We won't…
I mean we barely try to combat climate change, which is actually happening in front of our faces. To expect the government to direct knowledge or funds towards something that may happen just seems... extremely unlikely at best. And honestly, I don't disagree. I think we have a lot of problems that are present that we need to take care of. If these aren't mutually exclusive then we should definitely be trying to take all of it serious, but if they are, well then we should focus on the problems that are happening now. But I guess it's all relative.. does a dirt-poor person care about a something that could cause world-hunger in 30 years? I'd guess they are more worried about feeding themselves now. Is an ultra-wealthy mogul worried? Who knows, but I would assume they have less life-or-death problems occupying their thinking space, that maybe they are considering what may wipe out humanity in 100 years.
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#4I hate it that so little is being done to prevent the damage that will be caused by a CME. I think it's very likely that a CME will hit the earth within the next 100 years. If that will happen, western society will probably collapse. The only reason we can feed everyone right now is because we automated lots of things. The whole food chain is ran by machines, none of which will still be working after a CME. We won't…
I don't really know the physics of this, but it seems CMEs only really effect power supply, not electronics in general. So we are taking massive damage to power infrastructure, but that can be repaired, and there are already mitigation plans in place.
I'm probably missing something?
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#5David Roodman at GiveWell has an excellent series looking into geomagnetic storms, and published the last of four posts today: http://blog.givewell.org/2015/08/21/coming-down-to-earth-wha...
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#6I wish no one would link to anything from Gawker
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#7I hate it that so little is being done to prevent the damage that will be caused by a CME. I think it's very likely that a CME will hit the earth within the next 100 years. If that will happen, western society will probably collapse. The only reason we can feed everyone right now is because we automated lots of things. The whole food chain is ran by machines, none of which will still be working after a CME. We won't…
This is not just an issue with regard to CMEs. An electromagnetic pulse from a nuclear weapon could do catastrophic damage. One Second After[1] was written in an attempt to help bring attention to the devastation that a single, well-placed nuke could do off the coast of the US.
I think people don't take is seriously, like many things in our society, because when you look at it closely, you begin to realize our entire society is a house of cards. There are so many places that are vulnerable that even thinking about it becomes overwhelming.
1. http://www.amazon.com/One-Second-After-William-Forstchen/dp/...
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#8I hate it that so little is being done to prevent the damage that will be caused by a CME. I think it's very likely that a CME will hit the earth within the next 100 years. If that will happen, western society will probably collapse. The only reason we can feed everyone right now is because we automated lots of things. The whole food chain is ran by machines, none of which will still be working after a CME. We won't…
I don't really know the physics of this, but it seems CMEs only really effect power supply, not electronics in general. So we are taking massive damage to power infrastructure, but that can be repaired, and there are already mitigation plans in place. I'm probably missing something?
No, I think Avalaxy is confusing CMEs and EMPs (he's concerned about tractors, trucks, sundry battery-powered computers, and hugely inductive industrial machinery) and he's extrapolating wildly from his own inability to think outside the box (e.g. how checks / offline card processing work, how computer experts might be useful in a world where a good chunk of computing infrastructure suddenly gets fried, etc).
A big CME could be hella destructive and having a backup stash of supplies is a fine idea. That $2T damage estimate doesn't sound crazy if we assume that the heads-up from astronomers gets ignored and real-time distribution management isn't capable of shutting things down in time (both possible AFAIK). But even in that scenario...
> western society will probably collapse
No.
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#9I hate it that so little is being done to prevent the damage that will be caused by a CME. I think it's very likely that a CME will hit the earth within the next 100 years. If that will happen, western society will probably collapse. The only reason we can feed everyone right now is because we automated lots of things. The whole food chain is ran by machines, none of which will still be working after a CME. We won't…
Well, we'll have months to prepare, and at worst case, all we need to do is to cut our power supply for a couple of days.
Yes, we need watch systems. Luckily we do have them, and they are getting even more precise with time. We got very luck that it didn't strike us sooner.
Also, yes, the entire planet disconnecting for a few days is indeed a tragedy. But not at the dimension you (and the article) are describing.
Re: What would happen if a massive solar storm hit the earth?
#10I hate it that so little is being done to prevent the damage that will be caused by a CME. I think it's very likely that a CME will hit the earth within the next 100 years. If that will happen, western society will probably collapse. The only reason we can feed everyone right now is because we automated lots of things. The whole food chain is ran by machines, none of which will still be working after a CME. We won't…
Well, we'll have months to prepare, and at worst case, all we need to do is to cut our power supply for a couple of days. Yes, we need watch systems. Luckily we do have them, and they are getting even more precise with time. We got very luck that it didn't strike us sooner. Also, yes, the entire planet disconnecting for a few days is indeed a tragedy. But not at the dimension you (and the article) are describing.
> Yes, we need watch systems. Luckily we do have them.
For those who haven't seen, distribution management is actually pretty cool. Balancing power on the grid is a real-time task and it's not as trivial as you might think. There are three phases of AC, different voltages, and different frequencies (think slightly-different so that they drift with respect to each other...). Generators are potentially out of phase with respect to each other and ramping up/down throughout the day. Loads ramp up/down too, noticeably shift in response to things like TV programs coming on, and change their inductive/resistive profile. This is all managed in super-nifty control centers:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vX0G9F42puY
These guys already take TV shows and wind forecasts into account during grid planning but a CME is going to throw them for a loop? Doesn't seem likely.