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Nvidia is the central bank of AI

economist.com

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Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#191

Post by kennywinker »

pilooch wrote: post #181
kennywinker wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model. I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards: 1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model,…

That's unless the code produced in the future is much more complex than today's.

Assuming it’s all going to be vibe coded garbage, yeah it will be much more complex. Like a toddler writing a symphony.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#192

Post by larodi »

kennywinker wrote: post #137
spott wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, but they would have to become insolvent in a way that makes compute lose value. The reason Nvidia is comfortable making these deals is because if OpenAI can’t use the compute, someone else can. Granted OpenAI going insolvent likely means a drop in the value of compute…

Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model. I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards: 1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model,…

They need the right harness and either your help it auto produces in time enough content to further improve.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#193

Post by usefulcat »

SleightOfHand wrote: post #149
kennywinker wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model. I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards: 1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model,…

You're not considering video which OpenAI opted out of when they retired Sora. Generative video requires significantly more computing power and energy than generative text. OpenAI is fucked, compute is still needed, it's just them that isn't.

There would also need to exist sufficient demand for video, which hasn’t happened yet.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#194

Post by neilwilson »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #129
neilwilson wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no such thing as fractional reserve banking. The multiplier is a myth. Quite why this persists when the Bank of England debunked it in 2014 [0] is anybody’s guess. Just another of those concepts that is neat, plausible and wrong. [0]: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/m...

> There is no such thing as fractional reserve banking Yes, there is. We just changed how we measure the fraction from a crude one like a reserve requirement (which takes zero account of asset quality or funding source) to finer and more-robust ones like capital and liquidity reqirements. Banks still have to hold reserves. And those required reserves constrain their lending and thus the amount of money they can creat…

They don’t constrain the quantity of lending. They only change the price.

Liability side controls don’t work.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#195

Post by chpatrick »

SleightOfHand wrote: post #149
kennywinker wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model. I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards: 1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model,…

You're not considering video which OpenAI opted out of when they retired Sora. Generative video requires significantly more computing power and energy than generative text. OpenAI is fucked, compute is still needed, it's just them that isn't.

Minimax H3 works pretty great and you can run it on a 3090.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#196

Post by overcast »

petcat wrote: post #27
overcast wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML is the foundation. Without them, none of this would exist.

I think we can go even further and say that IBM, Zeiss, several Japanese companies, and even the US Department of Energy are the actual foundation since ASML is largely just an integrator of many different technologies they license from elsewhere.

We can go even further, all of the mining companies! Or even further, and the dead stars that exploded!

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#197

Post by fragmede »

noir_lord wrote: post #72
thrownawaysz wrote: post #13

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

AMD would step in, they where behind nvidia but they've been closing that gap for a while and the 9070XT is the current value king (in this fucked up market) for mid-high gaming and you can actually buy them. Demand for Nvidia cards has outstripped supply even on the mid-high cards specifically because they do better with local models than AMD cards with the same VRAM do broadly. AI has completely broken the PC gamin…

Cryptocurrency mining had it broken before that. PC gaming's golden years are behind us, as AI, even if not LLMs, seems like it's not going away, so the gaming market is now the niche hobby while AI takes center stage.

RIP. My first gaming ~GPU~ (we called them 3d accelerators back then) was a Diamond Monster II with a 3dfx Voodoo 2 chip.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#198

Post by anu7df »

Cracks are starting to appear. Open Ai and Anthropic are publicly asking for slowdown in AI research. Translation: We see this technology not being any more useful than what it is now, no AGI is coming, and the first one to accept this and slow down the dollar burn rate will incur the wrath of the market. So let's say this big boogey man technology will end all life on earth and we all slow down together. Bonus points if we can lobby for this to be included in the national security bucket. Then US govt can bail us out. Yay!

If Nvidia is the bank, they should be starting to sweat a bit. It's not often companies ask for a voluntary slowdown.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#199

Post by vunderba »

kennywinker wrote: post #137
spott wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, but they would have to become insolvent in a way that makes compute lose value. The reason Nvidia is comfortable making these deals is because if OpenAI can’t use the compute, someone else can. Granted OpenAI going insolvent likely means a drop in the value of compute…

Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model. I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards: 1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model,…

> People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model...

It’s not quite as simple as that. Several studies have shown the opposite: models trained on more diverse knowledge tend to cross-pollinate across domains. So a more generalized model can actually perform better than a specialized one.

That’s why you’re not seeing tons of tiny models (one for Python, one for Pascal, one for Rust, etc).

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#200

Post by ares623 »

manlymuppet wrote: post #69

I've always found it interesting when corporations start acting like public institutions. When traditionally philosophical, social contract ideas apply to things like corporate governance. Or like here, where private structures get powerful and important enough to resemble government structures. The ideas we deal with when we discuss society and organization aren't exclusive to government, they relate to human nature…

The governments of today weren't formed out of "discussions of power"
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