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After the AI Crash

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Re: After the AI Crash

#191

Post by orbital-decay »

zero_shift wrote: post #104
mosura wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once AI is achieved it will not be a question of “adaptation” but “acceptance”. You are in denial. If you don’t like this the answer was what the Unabomber proposed the whole time.

> the answer was what the Unabomber proposed the whole time. The Unabomber (Theodore Kaczynski) killed 3 people and injured 23 others across 16 bombings between 1978 and 1995 It's absolutely incredible to see this talked about as a "reasonable" position on AI taking jobs. edit: updated as it is not clear if Mosura is being serious or exaggerating for rhetoric

Late 19th early 20th century job replacement by engine-powered machinery led to the rise of ideologies, two world wars, and reshaping of the entire world. If AI replacement would actually reach even 10% of its promised potential, you'll see far more violence than you are ready to see. That's simply unavoidable in this case.

Re: After the AI Crash

#192

Post by _dwt »

palmotea wrote: post #122
Kuyawa wrote: post #14

AI investment will crash but AI itself (the technology) will continue thriving, learning, improving and there is absolutely no way to stop it. The only reading on the crystal ball is if US companies fail, China will take the lead by leaps and bounds, so the only solution is to keep pushing the cart until the wheels come off or we all cross the finish line, together.

> AI investment will crash but AI itself (the technology) will continue thriving, learning, improving and there is absolutely no way to stop it. No, there's is a way to stop it. As obvious counterexample: go all Butlerian Jihad: death sentence for anyone caught "making a machine in the likeness of a human mind." It's doable with a few laws and treaties. I'm not saying that's the only way it could be stopped, it's jus…

HN consistently, IMO, underrates the degree to which technology adoption is “political” rather than inevitable. I was going to write a long jokey bit here but instead; counter examples - nuclear power, eugenics, the AC vs DC wars during electrification, the great firewall of China…

Re: After the AI Crash

#193

Post by unknownfuture »

neonstatic wrote: post #156
cmiles8 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not financial advice, but: Honestly it’s pretty hard and I wouldn’t recommend it. Shorting stocks and getting into bonds / default swaps but the system is broadly rigged against small players doing well here. Ie in the Big Short see everything that was needed for two guys to bet with their own money. It’s likely to be bumpy for all but stay the course with diversified strategy. The .com bust and 2008 are just blips a…

> Not financial advice, but: Honestly it’s pretty hard and I wouldn’t recommend it. Shorting stocks and getting into bonds / default swaps but the system is broadly rigged against small players doing well here. Ie in the Big Short see everything that was needed for two guys to bet with their own money. Do you base your knowledge on anything other than a very mediocre movie? If an "investor" believes the market will s…

The problem is the old saw about the market staying irrational.

You can't time the market reliably. Ultimately the base advice remains sound even if it's couched in a bit of conspiracy: diversify and allocate your assets based on your risk profile, as informed by your retirement timeline.

Re: After the AI Crash

#194

Post by MichaelZuo »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #128
cmiles8 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not financial advice, but: Honestly it’s pretty hard and I wouldn’t recommend it. Shorting stocks and getting into bonds / default swaps but the system is broadly rigged against small players doing well here. Ie in the Big Short see everything that was needed for two guys to bet with their own money. It’s likely to be bumpy for all but stay the course with diversified strategy. The .com bust and 2008 are just blips a…

Heck, it's pretty rigged against big guys too. The subprime bubble was not something that only Michael Burry knew about -- it was a front page story on the Economist several times years before the crash. There were lots of big guys that bet against the bubble, but bet too early and weren't able to keep up with margin calls etc.

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” - John Maynard Keynes

Re: After the AI Crash

#195

Post by wanda »

dspillett wrote: post #25
_override wrote: post #8

When it comes to the AI crash honestly my biggest concern is what is going to happen to the job market during and the years following the crash. Not sure how things are in the rest of the world, but as someone in their early 30s working in the IT industry in Sweden I’ve never seen the market this competitive before, even for mid level and senior roles, and it worries me what the future of employment is going to look…

> what the future of employment is going to look like As an already slightly outdated senior dev in the UK rapidly approaching 50 and not wanting to touch generative AI / agentic dev… … I'm increasingly looking forward to waiting tables, being a hospital porter, or anything else away from tech! I'm thinking that if I get out soon, I might beat most of the rush and be safely employed before many of the rest of you are…

Similar boat to you, but I already got out a couple of years ago in anticipation of the direction AI would take things.

Honestly, I've never been happier — that might technically say more about how far from happy I was before, rather than the extent to which I am happy now. But the main point is that I am not less happy.

I still work on side-projects but it's strictly for leisure or occasionally some freelance stuff for long-standing relationships — just pocket money and nothing I'd lament being rid of.

Re: After the AI Crash

#196

Post by pigpop »

toasty228 wrote: post #110
ekidd wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're unlikely to ever be priced out of tokens, at least if you'd be willing to settle for a model closer to Sonnet 4.5. That level of model certainly isn't as efficient as Fable 5, but it can crank out CRUD apps and other consulting mainstays quite well, with some supervision. To give you an example of model in this class, the DeepSeek V4 Flash preview is a 284B A13B model, with a native quantization mixing 4 bit a…

> You can easily run it on an RTX Pro 6000 Sure, and people can just build their own dropbox for like $250 too. How many people will bother though

Software brained developers can't comprehend the idea of capital expenditures required to operate a business. Too spoiled by cheap laptops, free software and coffee shop wifi.

Re: After the AI Crash

#197

Post by goatlover »

palmotea wrote: post #122
Kuyawa wrote: post #14

AI investment will crash but AI itself (the technology) will continue thriving, learning, improving and there is absolutely no way to stop it. The only reading on the crystal ball is if US companies fail, China will take the lead by leaps and bounds, so the only solution is to keep pushing the cart until the wheels come off or we all cross the finish line, together.

> AI investment will crash but AI itself (the technology) will continue thriving, learning, improving and there is absolutely no way to stop it. No, there's is a way to stop it. As obvious counterexample: go all Butlerian Jihad: death sentence for anyone caught "making a machine in the likeness of a human mind." It's doable with a few laws and treaties. I'm not saying that's the only way it could be stopped, it's jus…

It's techno determinism which assumes a libertarian view of markets where politics and culture don't matter.

Re: After the AI Crash

#198

Post by goatlover »

charlie90 wrote: post #187
watwut wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 80-100% unemployed This would mean that there are no AI companies at all, because there is no one to buy their products. So, they have nowhere to get money for whatever they want to sell.

money is just an abstraction over value, it is not value itself. if AGI is achieved, the AI labs will just use AGI to produce what they need instead of trading for it, which would include full vertical integration on all products.

They will still need land, energy and resources. They will also be subject to the wrath of voters and angry unemployed mobs.

Re: After the AI Crash

#199

Post by goatlover »

Marha01 wrote: post #86
zero_shift wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We already have human intelligence. Creating new humans is easy (and fun) The only reason to emulate human intelligence is to capture it, exploit it, and reduce the negotiating power of those who have it naturally. Anyone who wants this is not a friend of human beings

> Creating new humans is easy (and fun) This could not be further from the truth. Creating a new educated, competent human takes ~25 years, and significant costs and resources. AGI can be just copy-pasted at essentially no cost. Even a robot that is mass-produced for tens of thousands of dollars is still much less expensive and takes much less time to make than a competent human.

Except there's already billions of humans with millions becoming competent humans every year. Also the machine analogy breaks down in some ways for biological organisms. It's messier, more complex and organisms weren't designed for a purpose. There is no software humans are running. That's just a metaphor for whatever the brain & nervous system (throughout the body) does.

Re: After the AI Crash

#200

Post by ritcgab »

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #30
_override wrote: post #8

When it comes to the AI crash honestly my biggest concern is what is going to happen to the job market during and the years following the crash. Not sure how things are in the rest of the world, but as someone in their early 30s working in the IT industry in Sweden I’ve never seen the market this competitive before, even for mid level and senior roles, and it worries me what the future of employment is going to look…

> what is going to happen to the job market during and the years following the crash Junior programmers will be in demand again. Someone will have to fix the mountains of vibe coded technical debt.

It is senior programmers that will be in demand again, but at junior price.
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