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Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

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Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#191
post #163
post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm almost certain you're not arguing that "dollars generated per person" is the only valid measure of the success of a government Sure, it isn't the only measure of success, but if this number is very low then that is (I would argue) a measure of failure. "Dollars generated per person" = tax-revenues per person is very similar to GDP-per-capita. And a high GDP-per-capita means you can spend on healthcare, earthquake…

I'm trying to be very careful to avoid responding to things you're not actually saying. This would be more fun to discuss over some beers. Trying to tiptoe away from Godwin, I'll agree the use of moral/amoral is worth the quibble. Certainly it's people who have morals, and institutions that have, at best, ethics or principles. I'm not trying to argue that governments are moral, although they do take on responsibiliti…

Cool, yeah, beer is awesome. Appreciate the discussion.

Another way to express what I'm saying is this:

Individuals do lots of things that aren't directly for profit, like open source or art or helping out a friend. But over the long term they need to create more wealth (apples, chairs, computers, etc.) than they consume.

Groups of various kinds (companies, etc.) do lots of things that aren't for profit, like throwing birthday parties for their members or having their people sponsor charity runs for research. Yet they too need to have wealth creation exceed wealth consumption to survive in the long run.

Municipalities and local governments -- ditto. Municipalities provide services in exchange for property taxes, and they can/do go bankrupt. We're seeing that happen to CA cities now.

Now, a federal government is definitely special in some key ways: it can order guys with guns to your house and coordinates national defense. But you can still model this as a municipality that is competing with other national governments for your tax dollars. Immigration is in part about getting a better deal from country A and moving from country B.

This is not how we've been raised to think about government. Many on the broad political right are sort of emotional about the federal government's defense efforts; many on the broad political left are sort of emotional about the federal government's non-defense efforts. And in our current world it is kind of unpatriotic to just think of them as a service provider: "are they keeping the peace at low cost? are they pursuing the right strategy for long term health?".

There are macroeconomic arguments as well about whether the "government is or should be modeled as a company", but really you do get at a good point in that the idea that government is just a service provider cuts against the grain of American thought, both left and right.

However, it is an interesting line of analysis that is gaining in currency. See for example KP's "USA Inc.", which looks at the USA as if it was a company:

images.businessweek.com/mz/11/10/1110_mz_49meekerusainc.pdf

While physical proximity will always mean banding together for common defense (so long as we are corporeal beings!), I'd argue that the internet makes migration-to-a-better-service-provider a much more feasible option. Facebook facilitates transnationalism: your friends are sometimes nearby, sometimes on other continents, but they often aren't your neighbors. Skype and all these telecommuting tools allow you to work remotely as well.

Moving doesn't have the same cost that it used to. Making the cost of migration plummet could be very important.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its a bit presumptuous to say that Tesla is so different. Sure, they are attractive at the moment because of unique niche they are filling. If BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Acura, etc all sold an all-electric vehicle with similar range, Tesla's differentiation becomes much less unique, and normal competitive factors come into play (scale, marketing, etc).

It's a bit presumptious to say that Apple is any different. Sure they are attractive at the moment because of the unique niche they are filling. If Sony, HP, Dell, Acer, Gateway, Lenovo, etc all sold a laptop with similar specs, Apple's differentiation becomes much less unique, and normal competitive factors come into play (scale, marketing, etc). So tell me, does that still hold water?

Yes, because that's a really awful analogy.

BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Porsche, etc. These companies/brands are producing great products. You can compare Chrysler to Gateway and get away with it maybe. But there are a lot of innovative car companies out there who are out in front of what people want -- and are actually making money doing it.

It doesn't take a startup to build the next big thing. Take Apple, for instance..

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#193
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many people are in your district, why don't they think you're electable, and why can't they donate a dollar if they do?

Approx 700k people in most congressional districts. I've actually ran in and won an election at the local level back when I lived in massachusetts. So I'm familiar with the process. Are you? How do you get your message out to that many people without money? How do you beat an established incumbent with a ton of relationships and a warchest? Knocking on doors doesn't do it at that level. If you're feeling idealistic,…

It would probably physically kill me to run for office, actually, heh. I wish I could do it. I hate that I'm a complete hypocrite on this, but my actual goal is to make career politicians obsolete, and that's not something a single person can do anyways.

But to answer your questions, you don't. You lose the first round. The first round is about becoming a credible threat as a nobody. You spend that first round, however, building up relationships: it's about no longer being a political nobody. Then you maintain those relationships for the next few years until it's time to campaign again, and then you leverage them into money and votes.

Besides, I don't actually want people like me in office. I'm a philosopher who doesn't like Plato; why would I endorse a philosopher king.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#194

Tesla Motors is in great shape. I've been following the company for a while and recently drove the Model S. Amazing car in almost every way. What struck me was that it's not an incremental improvement but really a radical (might I say disruptive) improvement in terms of ride quality (super quiet), handling (low center of gravity with skateboard powertrain), electronics (17" touchscreen), cargo space (heard of the fru…

I agree 100%, which is why I doubled down on TSLA a couple of weeks ago. I've told a few people to buy, but they don't seem to want to listen. It seems obvious to me...

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its a bit presumptuous to say that Tesla is so different. Sure, they are attractive at the moment because of unique niche they are filling. If BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Acura, etc all sold an all-electric vehicle with similar range, Tesla's differentiation becomes much less unique, and normal competitive factors come into play (scale, marketing, etc).

It's a bit presumptious to say that Apple is any different. Sure they are attractive at the moment because of the unique niche they are filling. If Sony, HP, Dell, Acer, Gateway, Lenovo, etc all sold a laptop with similar specs, Apple's differentiation becomes much less unique, and normal competitive factors come into play (scale, marketing, etc). So tell me, does that still hold water?

Tesla carries the banner for upper-scale electric vehicles. If you substitute the electric motor with a petrol engine, are they still so distinctive? If the big luxury/sporty brands entered the electric car market in full-force (several models, full advertising campaign) with cars of similar performance to Tesla, Tesla would struggle mightily to stand out.

BTW, I am rooting for Tesla. I would love a Model S.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its a bit presumptuous to say that Tesla is so different. Sure, they are attractive at the moment because of unique niche they are filling. If BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Acura, etc all sold an all-electric vehicle with similar range, Tesla's differentiation becomes much less unique, and normal competitive factors come into play (scale, marketing, etc).

It's a bit presumptious to say that Apple is any different. Sure they are attractive at the moment because of the unique niche they are filling. If Sony, HP, Dell, Acer, Gateway, Lenovo, etc all sold a laptop with similar specs, Apple's differentiation becomes much less unique, and normal competitive factors come into play (scale, marketing, etc). So tell me, does that still hold water?

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is like saying that Sony can make an mp3 player, so the iPod isn't competitive in that market. Or that a 5GB iPod won't hold enough music, so it's just an expensive toy. Within 5-10 years the battery problem will improve, especially if there is demand. This is technology, not automotive development. We're not in Detroit anymore. They're in a different class. Tesla is set up to do it right from the start at a muc…

Its a bit presumptuous to say that Tesla is so different. Sure, they are attractive at the moment because of unique niche they are filling. If BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Lexus, Acura, etc all sold an all-electric vehicle with similar range, Tesla's differentiation becomes much less unique, and normal competitive factors come into play (scale, marketing, etc).

This is a trivial statement. It's an obvious truism that if other manufacturers produced vehicles like Tesla's, then Tesla's vehicles would no longer be unique. What other companies COULD produce is irrelevant - Tesla is making something drastically different from them. You don't agree that engineering an extremely novel product makes a company "different"?

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#198
post #155
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue it is possible to believe both that Tesla is a great company and that Romney was generally right in that many of the green investments have indeed been losers (Solyndra, A123, Beacon Power, Abound Solar, ...). Lest we forget, Romney is/was a pretty great investor and entrepreneur himself, just like Elon Musk. It's unfortunate that Romney included Tesla in his list of green losers - he did start this fig…

> The government is not just any old company or investor, the government has guns and can compel action in a way that others cannot. As such it is very powerful to have as a investor and very dangerous to have as a competitor. Too dangerous. I get what you're saying but I really wish people would quit bandying about the "government has guns" line. I'm one of the zillions working in the USG and I can tell you that the…

  Or we could quit acting like starting a business in the  
  U.S. is really just like starting a business in a country 
  run by a junta
The US is obviously a much better place to start a business than a Latin American dictatorship. However, the question is whether it's a more stable environment than, say, Singapore. Here are a few links that I know weigh heavily on the minds of people who think like me; you might believe we should weigh them less, but these are governmental decisions that arguably do increase the unpredictability of doing business in the US.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/chryslers-holdout-len...

  In a long document filed Sunday evening, Chrysler asked a 
  judge to approve a sale of most of its assets and some of 
  its liabilities for $2 billion to an entity formed by Fiat, 
  the United Auto Workers’ retirement trust and the United 
  States and Canadian governments.

  But in Monday’s objection, a group of debt holders advised 
  by the law firm White & Case criticized the proposal as too 
  rushed, arguing that it was unreasonable to rule on the 
  merits of the sale on “15 hours’ notice.”

  Moreover, they said the sale was really a reorganization 
  plan in disguise — one that flouts the basic rules about 
  which creditors get priority under the federal bankruptcy 
  code. The proposed sale attempts to put social goals ahead 
  of bankruptcy law, and should not be approved, the 
  objection said.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline#Keystone_XL

  The Keystone XL extension was proposed in 2008.[6] The 
  application was filed in September 2008 and the National 
  Energy Board of Canada started hearings in September 2009.
  [16] On March 11, 2010 the Canadian National Energy Board 
  approved the project.[2][3][17] The South Dakota Public 
  Utilities Commission granted a permit on February 19, 2010.
  [18]

  On July 21, 2010, the Environmental Protection Agency said 
  the draft environmental impact study for Keystone XL was 
  inadequate and should be revised...
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/14/science/earth/14coal.html?...

  The Environmental Protection Agency revoked the permit for 
  one of the nation’s largest mountaintop-removal coal mining   
  projects on Thursday, saying the mine would have done 
  unacceptable damage to rivers, wildlife and communities in 
  West Virginia. It was the first time the agency had 
  rescinded a valid clean water permit for a coal mine...

  Environmentalists welcomed Thursday’s decision. But the 
  mining company and politicians in West Virginia expressed 
  fury, saying the action was an unprecedented federal 
  intrusion, an economic catastrophe for the state and a 
  dangerous precedent for all regulated industries.
http://mobihealthnews.com/6932/interview-the-iphone-medical-...

  Did MIMvista ever make it into the AppStore?

  Mobile MIM was available at the launch of the App Store. 
  The app was free and included sample patients for people to  
  try it out for themselves.

  Why did MIMvista remove the app from the store? (or was it 
  forced out?)

  In August of 2008, we submitted our first 510(k). ...  To 
  be honest, this dramatically new direction for our 
  company, and the speed at which it occurred, left us ill-
  prepared for the scope of the regulatory process that would 
  unfold. Within only a few weeks of submitting, we were 
  contacted by the FDA and told that our app could not be on 
  the app store (despite the fact that it was both free and 
  labeled as “not intended for diagnostic use”) because it 
  served as marketing for a device that was not cleared for 
  marketing. We promptly removed it.

  Then, over the next few months, we discovered that our 
  proposed device raised more questions than we had 
  anticipated. In order to make their determination, the FDA 
  wanted more information than we had provided. The process 
  stalled out as we reviewed what we would have to do next. 
  This 510(k) was declared not substantially equivalent (NSE) 
  because of insufficient data.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/story...

  The Consumer Product Safety Commission on Wednesday sued 
  the maker of the popular magnetic desk toy Buckyballs to 
  stop the sale of the product because of the risks posed to 
  children...
  
  Responding to a request for comment, the company sent a 
  press release headlined, "CPSC: Thank you for trying to 
  drive a $50 million New York-based consumer product company 
  out of business." Buckyballs and Buckycubes are Maxfield & 
  Oberton's sole products; 2.5 million sets have been sold 
  since 2009.
One can go on in this vein. These stories did happen. You may or may not agree that they are happening at an increasing rate; you may or may not agree that this increase is statistically significant. But the perception is indeed that the US is becoming a much more unpredictable place to do business.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#199
post #88

Tesla Motors is in great shape. I've been following the company for a while and recently drove the Model S. Amazing car in almost every way. What struck me was that it's not an incremental improvement but really a radical (might I say disruptive) improvement in terms of ride quality (super quiet), handling (low center of gravity with skateboard powertrain), electronics (17" touchscreen), cargo space (heard of the fru…

Great comment, thank you. I'd just like to add that the "frunk" isn't new -- I've been stashing my gym bag in my Porsche 911's frunk for years (it's a rear-engined car). Edit: While I absolutely live the Model S, I can assure you that exceeding stalwarts of the 5-series category, like the BMW M5, will not be as easy to disrupt as the market the Model S aims for.

And the VW Beetle - 1938 that one started up

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about the car that can use the infrastructure that already exists? All this talk about new transportation fuels imho always sidesteps the fact that gasoline will never run out . Petroleum will, but producing gasoline out of other sources is something that we already know how to do, and have done in industrial scale in the past. Fischer-Tropsch is cost-effective from coal at some point below $150 oil price. If you…

From what I understand, alternative gasolines tend to come from plants that we would otherwise be eating. I believe a more sustainable system would be one that doesn't use something we're already using for an area as vital as our food. Hydrogen, as an example, isn't something we ingest; and the output, so they claim, is water. Also, coal is probably the most bad-for-the-environment, dangerous and radioactive thing we…

That's true for ethanol (which was a terrible idea), but you can also get gas from coal gasification[1] as your parent noted [2]

[1] - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_gasification [2] - Fischer-Tropsch - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer-Tropsch_process

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