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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#191

Post by threetonesun »

olalonde wrote: post #120
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#192

Post by SilverElfin »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #125
SilverElfin wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s defensible about Anthropic’s revenue? It seems like OpenAI and others are equivalent. Open weight models are catching up. Google has ads networks, video platforms, and so much more. I am skeptical that Anthropic and OpenAI can defend their dominance for long enough to make meaningful gaap accounted profits

Anthropic is profitable unlike OpenAI though. Sure they'll owe a lot of money for probably decades, but if they remain profitable moving forward, it will be worthwhile.

That profit figure is a pre IPO marketing claim, not an audited and GAAP accounted number. And there is already a lot written about how Anthropic exaggerated revenue compared to OpenAI.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/josipamajic/2026/03/25/openai-a...

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#193

Post by [deleted] »

deadbabe wrote: post #184
Xunjin wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

One thing I have come to realize, is that worrying about bubbles will keep you poor. If everyone is in the bubble and it pops, everyone is in the same boat, so you’re not really going to be poorer than your peers by comparison. If it’s not a bubble and you are wrong, you will fall way behind everyone else and just watch people get richer and richer doing the exact same thing you should have done. Also, just because s…

[deleted]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#195

Post by JumpCrisscross »

themafia wrote: post #189
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing S&P has not finalized a rule change yet.

Are you actually optimistic?

> Are you actually optimistic?

Not particularly. When I posted the request for comment to HN it got crickets [1].

Not enough people care about this. And the "safe" option has kind of shifted with the other index providers having moved first. That said, there were a lot of proposals and I'm not expecting all of them to be adopted.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48054324

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#196

Post by coliveira »

deadbabe wrote: post #184
Xunjin wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

One thing I have come to realize, is that worrying about bubbles will keep you poor. If everyone is in the bubble and it pops, everyone is in the same boat, so you’re not really going to be poorer than your peers by comparison. If it’s not a bubble and you are wrong, you will fall way behind everyone else and just watch people get richer and richer doing the exact same thing you should have done. Also, just because s…

Ask Warren Buffet how concerned he was of "missing" on bubbles... He got richer than pretty much everybody else by just avoiding bubbles and then buying assets at fire sale prices when they inevitably popped.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#197

Post by themafia »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #119
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

> they've produced the cheapest way

Were we struggling to do this before? Was the overall percentage reduction in costs? Was some other achievement held back because we couldn't accomplish this? What is now enabled?

> to get any payload into space.

A limited set of payloads into space. No vehicle can get "any payload" to space at a fixed price.

> The benefits are easy to miss,

You've listed a bunch of reasons to publish papers. What is the actual ground level change that's occurred? Are those antibiotics produced? Do they actually work just as predicted? Why is that first world problems are exclusively listed but basic problems like world hunger are never even approached?

> or wouldn't have within our lifetimes.

And your life, your actual life, benefits, how?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#198

Post by dools »

gruez wrote: post #170
taurath wrote: post #129

[flagged]

If you have evidence of corruption, present it. Otherwise it's just generic cynicism leading to a thought terminating cliche.

At this point in US regulatory oversight I would have a harder time finding evidence of no corruption.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#199

Post by fragmede »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

So the obvious thing to do, for someone that's got ~$3mm to play with, is to setup an ETF that is SP500 but with the old rules. If you can convince $40mm of other people's money to go into your not-specifically-Musk-less-but-just-happens-to-be ETF, they'd come out ahead.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#200

Post by hedora »

olalonde wrote: post #120
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

I do too, and pay $200/month, but anthropic’s margins on that revenue are negative.

What’s the long term plan? Make it up on margin? 100% tariffs on Chinese open weight models?

I don’t plan on pulling from my 401k for decades, so the long term plan is the part I care about.

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