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Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

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Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#191

Post by benterix »

AntiUSAbah wrote: post #178
delis-thumbs-7e wrote: post #30

It’s insane how they talk about AGI, like it was some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now. When I have become the javelin Olympic Champion, I will buy a vegan ice cream to everyone with a HN account.

We are throwing unheared amounts of money in AI and unseen compute. Progress is huge and fast and we barely started. If this progress and focus and resources doesn't lead to AI despite us already seeing a system which was unimaginable 6 years ago, we will never see AGI. And if you look at Boston Dynamics, Unitree and Generalist's progress on robotics, thats also CRAZY.

Not sure if you're being sincere or sarcastic but some of us have lived through several AI winters now. And the fact that such a phenomenon exists is because of this terrible amount of hype the topic gets whenever any progress is made.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#192

Post by BloondAndDoom »

freejazz wrote: post #171
karmasimida wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now. If you present GPT 5.5 to me 2 years ago, I will call it AGI.

And I've been told my job (litigation attorney) is about to be replaced for over 3 years now, has yet to come close.

People always over estimate the impact of technology because they dont Understand human aspect of many businesses. Will it eventually replaced or will the shape of these kind of work will be completely different in the future? That’s an easy yes, when is that future? That’s a big unknown, in my experience this kind of stuff takes at least a decade (and possibly more on this case) to make a big impact like replacing all of X.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#193

Post by bena »

a2128 wrote: post #151
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They redefined AGI to be an economical thing Huh. Source? I mean, typical OpenAI bullshit, but would love to know how they defined it.

Around the end of 2024, it was reported that OpenAI and Microsoft agreed that for the purposes of their exclusivity agreement, AGI will be achieved when their AI system generates $100 billion in profit: https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

So no human on Earth is intelligent by that metric.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#194

Post by murkt »

ambicapter wrote: post #158
CWwdcdk7h wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds really similar to Uber pitch about how they are going to have monopoly as soon as they replace those pesky drivers with own fleet of self driving cars. That was supposed to be their competitive edge against other taxi apps. In the end they sold ATG at end of 2020 :D

ATH?

Autonomous Thriving Hroup?

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#195

Post by gowld »

a2128 wrote: post #151
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They redefined AGI to be an economical thing Huh. Source? I mean, typical OpenAI bullshit, but would love to know how they defined it.

Around the end of 2024, it was reported that OpenAI and Microsoft agreed that for the purposes of their exclusivity agreement, AGI will be achieved when their AI system generates $100 billion in profit: https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

Companies that have created "AGI":

Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Samsung, Intel, Cisco, Pfizer, UnitedHealth , Procter & Gamble, Berkshire Hathaway, China Construction Bank, Wells Fargo, ...

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#196

Post by benterix »

binary0010 wrote: post #189
freejazz wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Marketing

I'm so confused why I was down voted for answering the question that was asked?

Because 1) your answer had nothing to do with the question, 2) you quoted a slogan that life verified as false.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#197

Post by AntiUSAbah »

mort96 wrote: post #186
AntiUSAbah wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are throwing unheared amounts of money in AI and unseen compute. Progress is huge and fast and we barely started. If this progress and focus and resources doesn't lead to AI despite us already seeing a system which was unimaginable 6 years ago, we will never see AGI. And if you look at Boston Dynamics, Unitree and Generalist's progress on robotics, thats also CRAZY.

If I'm reading you right, your opinion is essentially: "If building bigger and bigger statistical next word predictors won't lead to artificial general intelligence, we will never see artificial general intelligence" I don't know, maybe AGI is possible but there's more to intelligence than statistical next word prediction?

Its not a statistical next word predictor.

The 'predicting the next word' is the learning mechanism of the LLM which leads to a latent space which can encode higher level concepts.

Basically a LLM 'understands' that much as efficient as it has to be to be able to respond in a reasonable way.

A LLM doesn't predict german text or chinese language. It predicts the concept and than has a language layer outputting tokens.

And its not just LLMs which are progressing fast, voice synt and voice understanding jumped significantly, motion detection, skeletion movement, virtual world generation (see nvidias way of generating virutal worlds for their car training), protein folding etc.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#198

Post by kogasa240p »

lucaslazarus wrote: post #48
delis-thumbs-7e wrote: post #30

It’s insane how they talk about AGI, like it was some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now. When I have become the javelin Olympic Champion, I will buy a vegan ice cream to everyone with a HN account.

It’s pretty much a religious eschatology at this point

This, someone take Silicon Valley's adderal away.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#199

Post by freejazz »

BloondAndDoom wrote: post #192
freejazz wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I've been told my job (litigation attorney) is about to be replaced for over 3 years now, has yet to come close.

People always over estimate the impact of technology because they dont Understand human aspect of many businesses. Will it eventually replaced or will the shape of these kind of work will be completely different in the future? That’s an easy yes, when is that future? That’s a big unknown, in my experience this kind of stuff takes at least a decade (and possibly more on this case) to make a big impact like replacing a…

These models need orders of magnitude in change before they can be more helpful than just a "find me an example of [an extremely basic principle]" which most of the time it does not do right anyway.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#200

Post by alternatex »

lokar wrote: post #74
dinosor wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Microsoft will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI. I feel this looks like a nice thing to have given they remain the primary cloud provider. If Azure improves it's overall quality then I don't see why this ends up as a money printing press as long as OpenAI brings good models?

Does anyone expect azure quality to improve? Has it improved at all in the last 3 years? Does leadership at MS think it needs to improve? I doubt it

MS incentivizes feature quantity, and the leadership are employees like any other. Product improvements are not on the table unless the company starts promoting people based on it. Doesn't look this will start happening any time soon.
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