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Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

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171–180 of 915 posts

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#171

It’s insane how they talk about AGI, like it was some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now. When I have become the javelin Olympic Champion, I will buy a vegan ice cream to everyone with a HN account.

> some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now. If you present GPT 5.5 to me 2 years ago, I will call it AGI.

And I've been told my job (litigation attorney) is about to be replaced for over 3 years now, has yet to come close.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#172
post #13

This agreement feels so friendly towards OpenAI that it's not obvious to me why Microsoft accepted this. I guess Microsoft just realized that the previous agreement was kneecapping OpenAI so much that the investment was at risk, especially with serious competition now coming from Anthropic?

I think MS wants OpenAI to fail so it can absorb it

MS put 10B for 50% if I remember correctly. OpenAI is worth many multiples of that.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#173

Microsoft Corp. will no longer pay revenue to OpenAI and said its partnership with the leading artificial intelligence firm will not be exclusive going forward. What does this mean that Microsoft will no longer pay revenue to OpenAI? How did the original deal work?

Wonder if this means Microsoft is actually going to be deploying Claude Code internally for usage?

That might help fix some of the bugs in Teams... :)

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#174

It’s insane how they talk about AGI, like it was some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now. When I have become the javelin Olympic Champion, I will buy a vegan ice cream to everyone with a HN account.

> some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now. If you present GPT 5.5 to me 2 years ago, I will call it AGI.

Some people thought SHRDLU was basically AGI after seeing its demo in 1970. The hype around such systems was so strong that Hubert Dreyfus felt the need to write an entire book arguing against this viewpoint (1972 What Computers Can't Do). All this demonstrates is that we need to be careful with various claims about computer intelligence.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now. If you present GPT 5.5 to me 2 years ago, I will call it AGI.

It performs at a usable level across a wide range of tasks. I'm not sure about two years ago, but ten years ago we would have called it an AGI. As opposed to "regular AI" where you have to assemble a training set for your specific problem, then train an AI on it before you can get your answers. Now our idea of what qualifies as AGI has shifted substantially. We keep looking at what we have and decide that that can't…

Just don't move the goal posts. AGI was already here the day ChatGPT came out:

https://www.noemamag.com/artificial-general-intelligence-is-...

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#177

Am I crazy, or was this press release fully rewritten in the past 10 minutes? The current version is around half the length of the old one, which did not frame it as a "simplification" "grounded in flexibility" but as a deeper partnership. It also had word salad about AGI, and said Azure retained exclusivity for API products but not other products, which the new statement seems to contradict. What was I looking at?

I noticed the exact same thing. I read the original, went back to read it again and it’s completely changed.

I think a stickied comment about this would be due. No idea if it's possible to call in @dang via at-name?

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#178

It’s insane how they talk about AGI, like it was some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now. When I have become the javelin Olympic Champion, I will buy a vegan ice cream to everyone with a HN account.

We are throwing unheared amounts of money in AI and unseen compute. Progress is huge and fast and we barely started.

If this progress and focus and resources doesn't lead to AI despite us already seeing a system which was unimaginable 6 years ago, we will never see AGI.

And if you look at Boston Dynamics, Unitree and Generalist's progress on robotics, thats also CRAZY.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any sufficiently complex LLM is indistinguishable from AGI

> Any sufficiently complex LLM is indistinguishable from AGI Isn't this tautology? We've de facto defined AGI as a "sufficiently complex LLM."

No, it’s just an example of something that’s indistinguishable from AGI. Of all the things that are or are indistinguishable from AGI, a sufficiently complex LLM is one. A sufficiently complex decision tree is probably another. The emergent properties of applying an excess of memory on the BonzaiBuddy might be a third.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#180
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything is personal preference, and perhaps I am more fiscally conservative because I grew up in poverty. But if I own 49% of a company and that company has more hype than product, hasn't found its market yet but is valued at trillions? I'm going to sell percentages of that to build my war chest for things that actually hit my bottom line. The "moonshot" has for all intents and purposes been achieved based on the…

Microsoft didn't sell anything. OpenAI created more shares and sold those to investors, so Microsoft's stake is getting diluted. And Microsoft only paid $10B for that stake for the most recognizable name brand for AI around the world. They don't need to "hedge their bets" it's already a humongous win. Why let Altman continue to call the shots and decrease Microsoft's ownership stake and ability to dictate how OpenAI…

do we know whether Microsoft could have been selling secondary shares as part of various funding rounds?

my impression is that many of these "investments" are structured IOUs for circular deals based on compute resources in exchange for LLM usage

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