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Most of the US economy is in a recession

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Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#191

Post by lovich »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #163
lovich wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What did your response have to do with your quote? We can have the most growth ever as a civilization and still have the common person lose out. The Industrial Revolution also famously had a lot of people pushed into impoverished situations while robber barons or the highland clearing lords won out, despite the GDP of those respective countries increasing.

> What did your response have to do with your quote? The notion that growth can be unequal is not something that has changed. The anomaly was the post-WWII eventide regime. That doesn't mean there is anything natural about unequal growth. But if we want to return to that previous mode, we have to first understand what it was. And what it was was anomalous.

So what was your point?

Someone called out that the common joe was doing worse off, you responded that gdp is higher than ever.

Are you making the claim that this is an acceptable state? Or are you making another claim?

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#192

Post by mcdeltat »

donavanm wrote: post #102
dzonga wrote: post #80

that's pretty obvious to everyone in the US what's not obvious to most people - is how e.g other countries that are already struggling will get into deeper depths e.g UK where cost of energy was super high. UK is not bombing Iran, but their economy will cry more than the US what's not obvious is how a few oil Barrons will make so much money in the next few weeks e.g those in Texas - their great grand-children will ne…

> if you're in the UK, Middle East, Australia (food is about to become more expensive & tricky) Australias not in a terrible position. We produce ~50% of our NPK fertilizers used, and this is down primarily because were importing more from places with cheaper/distant environmental impact. Conversely, IIRC, UK and Ineos just shut down their significant last fertilizer plant and the north sea fields is its own thing. S…

The cynic in me thinks we will be squeezed anyway because australian leaders apparently love to sell off everything to the global market with little concern for the residents. Why squeeze just domestic or just global when you can do both and collect even more profit?

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#193

Post by AngryData »

YinglingHeavy wrote: post #157
SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems. You've got it the wrong way around. People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy; Which for most people is "not good", doesn't match the formal economic metrics and definitions of a "recession". Constant layoffs, horrible job market, even worse housing market, and the lingering inflation. The other half of this is of cours…

Less: "its a bubble" More: "labor market and consumer spending is less meaningful than ever before" The masses are unable to truly internalize the latter.

Less meaningful, or less represented? If you sell your foundation out beneath yourself, the entire structure might come down. No matter how valuable it is to sell that rebar out of the concrete now, or how many additions that money allows you to add on top, it is likely not a sound strategy long term.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#194

Post by XorNot »

nradov wrote: post #141
XorNot wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Delivery services are more efficient then having the same customer base all drive to the restaurant. Unless it's in walking distance, one driver can service many people using a lot less resources.

So what? Regardless of mythical "efficiency" calculations, consumers are wasting actual dollars on conveniences that they can't really afford.

The original comment was lamenting people not buying their own cars and driving to pickup food.

Which is again, incredibly inefficient on every possible level and actually pretty damn expensive.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#195

Post by XorNot »

ghaff wrote: post #186
nradov wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess we all starved to death 20 years ago when there were no smartphone food delivery apps.

Lots of us got pizzas delivered now and then especially in college and, if you lived somewhere like NYC, maybe Chinese. But this idea that you'd starve without food delivery in general is simply odd.

Who is saying people would starve? Holy strawman batman!

But if people are going to get judgy about food delivery then they can rather put the effort in to explore why they feel that way.

But there's nothing efficient about hundreds of people making short distance car trips to restaurants, which is what was proposed as an alternative that is somehow "better".

And when you factor US style urban construction in, it's pretty likely a lot of people also don't have walkable access to local outlets anyway.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#196

Post by bulbar »

Auracle wrote: post #187
SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems. You've got it the wrong way around. People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy; Which for most people is "not good", doesn't match the formal economic metrics and definitions of a "recession". Constant layoffs, horrible job market, even worse housing market, and the lingering inflation. The other half of this is of cours…

Question - has any previous bubble been so thoroughly called out as a bubble? The dotcom and 2008 real estate ones sure weren’t. Some people did, but not “everyone.”

Could be thanks to the Internet and that most of the adults today use Internet and have experienced a bubble before.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#197

Post by ludicrousdispla »

YinglingHeavy wrote: post #157
SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems. You've got it the wrong way around. People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy; Which for most people is "not good", doesn't match the formal economic metrics and definitions of a "recession". Constant layoffs, horrible job market, even worse housing market, and the lingering inflation. The other half of this is of cours…

Less: "its a bubble" More: "labor market and consumer spending is less meaningful than ever before" The masses are unable to truly internalize the latter.

I recently learned that in the US there are now more private equity/VC funds than there are McDonald's locations, which may indicate that the majority of consumer spending is irrelevant to the top 'n'%

https://www.thedailyupside.com/advisor/investing-strategies/...

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#198

Post by JumpCrisscross »

lovich wrote: post #191
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What did your response have to do with your quote? The notion that growth can be unequal is not something that has changed. The anomaly was the post-WWII eventide regime. That doesn't mean there is anything natural about unequal growth. But if we want to return to that previous mode, we have to first understand what it was. And what it was was anomalous.

So what was your point? Someone called out that the common joe was doing worse off, you responded that gdp is higher than ever. Are you making the claim that this is an acceptable state? Or are you making another claim?

> What specifically has changed?

>> Realizing that GDP growth can be achieved while average joe on Main Street is struggling

Me: that’s not new. That didn’t change.

> that this is an acceptable state?

If we’re in a Cat 3 hurricane and someone complains about it being Cat 5, pointing out that’s wrong isn’t pro-hurricane.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#199

Post by brandensilva »

dzonga wrote: post #80

that's pretty obvious to everyone in the US what's not obvious to most people - is how e.g other countries that are already struggling will get into deeper depths e.g UK where cost of energy was super high. UK is not bombing Iran, but their economy will cry more than the US what's not obvious is how a few oil Barrons will make so much money in the next few weeks e.g those in Texas - their great grand-children will ne…

Even banks are backing out of AI data centers as the risk is too great. Tells you right away that they know the risk exceeds even their willingness to finance the wealthiest ambitions.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#200

Post by no-name-here »

gruez wrote: post #60
ekjhgkejhgk wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What specifically has changed?

Probably referring to the "2 quarters of negative GDP" rule that was seemingly revoked under Biden.

That was never such a "rule"; that was 1 of 4 considerations from a 1974 NY Times opinion piece, and those 4 considerations were in turn a simplification of the overall recession considerations, as the combined 4 items were intended to be more understandable by the general public than the actual items.

Where had you heard that there was such a "rule"?

(And as others pointed out, it's a private organization, not the government, that has set and evaluates recession criteria.)

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