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The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

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191–200 of 496 posts

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#191

Regarding LLMs we're in a race to the bottom. Chinese models perform similarly with much higher efficiency; refer to kimi-k2 and plenty of others. ClopenAI is extremely overvalued, and AGI is not around the corner because among 20T+ tokens trained on it still generates 0 novel output. Try asking for ASP.NET Core .MapOpenAPI() instead of the pre .net9 swashbuckle version. You get nothing. It's not in the training data…

They perform similarly on benchmarks, which can be fudged to arbitrarily high numbers by just including the Q&A into the training data at a certain frequency or post-training on it. I have not been impressed with any of the DeepSeek models in real-world use.

General data: hundreds of billions of tokens per week are running through Deepseek, Qwen, GLM models solely by those users going through OpenRouter. People aren't doing that for laughs, or "non-real-world use", that's all for work and/or prod. If you look at the market share graph, at the start of the year the big 3 OpenAI/Anthropic/Google had 72% market share on there. Now it's 45%. And this isn't just because of Grok, before that got big they'd already slowly fallen to 58%.

Anecdata: our product is using a number of these models in production.

[0] https://openrouter.ai/rankings

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

A sufficiently large profit margin is what constitutes AGI? What a fucking joke.

The real AGI was the money we siphoned along the way.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#193
post #97

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI ... I think it's funny and telling that they've used the word "declare" where what they are really doing is "claim". These guys think they are prophets.

> These guys think they are prophets. You say this somewhat jokingly, but I think they 100% believe something along those lines.

>> Whether you are an enterprise developer or BigTech in the US you are on average making twice the median income in your area. There is usually no reason for you not to be stacking cash.

Accidental misquote?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

C#/.NET are nice. Azure/Microsoft Cloud not so nice. Idk, maybe I have some bias due to familiarity, but I find the GCP admin and tools to be so much more intuitive than the Azure (and AWS too, for that matter) counterparts.

Oh dear lord, GCP could be the intuitive one?! I have not used anything else but, dear lord, that's shocking and not at all surprising at the same time.

Yeah this is not the case at all lol. I actually find Azure to be far more intuitive after suffering through AWS and a little GCP. It certainly seems more stable in US regions than AWS.

One thing I will say is the Azure documentation is some of the most cumbersome to navigate I've ever experienced, there is a dearth of information in there, you just have to know how to find it.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

This is exactly why they will have an “expert panel” to make that determination. They wouldn’t make something up

Yeah, they wouldn't make something up, the expert panel would.

Because everyone knows that once you call a group of people an expert panel, that automatically means they can't be biased /s

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#196
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

> they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle Who is this "they" you speak of? It's true the definition has changed, but not in the direction you seem to think. Before this boom cycle the standard for "AI" was the Turing test. There is no doubt we have comprehensively passed that now.

Is there, really?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#197

> Microsoft holds an investment in OpenAI Group PBC valued at approximately $135 billion, representing roughly 27 percent on an as-converted diluted basis It seems like Microsoft stock is then the most straightforward way to invest in OpenAI pre-IPO. This also confirms the $500 billion valuation making OpenAI the most valuable private startup in the world. Now many of the main AI companies have decent ownership by pu…

Microsoft is worth $4T, so if you buy one MSFT share only ~3% of that is invested in OpenAI. Even if OpenAI outperforms everyone's expectations (which at this point are already sky high), a tiny swing in some other Microsoft division will completely erase your gains.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. As a proxy, you can look at storage. The human brain is estimated at 3.2Pb of storage. The cost of disk space drops by half every 2-3 years. As of this writing, the cost is about $10 / Tb [0]. If we assume about 3 halvings, by 2030 that cost will be around $2.50 / Tb, which means that to purchase a computer roughly the storage size of a human brain, it will cost just under $6k. The $6k price point means that (hi…

Moore's law also started coming to an end a few years ago.

Not even close [0]:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law#/media/File:Moor...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law#/media/File:The_...

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#199

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

When there is no generally accepted definition for a word, it's easy to claim you've obtained it.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think "we" have accidentally cracked language from a computational perspective. The embedding of knowledge is incidental and we're far away from anything that "Generally Intelligent", let alone Advanced in that. LLMs do tend to make documented knowledge very searchable which is nice. But if you use these models everyday to do work of some kind that becomes pretty obvious that they aren't nearly as intelligent as th…

They're about as smart as a person who's kind of decent at every field. If you're a pro, it's pretty clear when it's BSing. But if you're not, the answers are often close enough. And just like humans, they can be very confidently wrong. When any person tells us something, we assume there's some degree of imperfection in their statements. If a nurse at a hospital tells you the doctor's office is 3 doors down on the ri…

> They're about as smart as a person who's kind of decent at every field. If you're a pro, it's pretty clear when it's BSing. But if you're not, the answers are often close enough.

No they are not smart at all. Not even a little. They cannot reason about anything except that their training data overwhelmingly agrees or disagrees with their output nor can they learn and adept. They are just text compression and rearrangement machines. Brilliant and extremely useful tooling but if you use them enough it becomes painfully obvious.

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