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Why are lithium prices collapsing?

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Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#191

Post by newswasboring »

nindalf wrote: post #77
newswasboring wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Necessary gambling is what helps the market figure out the real long term availability of something. I have not seen any necessary gambling in my years in manufacturing. So in my view all speculation on commodities seem unnecessary.

> I have not seen any necessary gambling in my years in manufacturing. You need to manufacture a widget and it must cost no more than $5. You have a few inputs to your widget, some made with steel and some with plastic. If steel and plastic prices increase, your inputs cost more than $5 and you’re making a loss on every widget you sell. So you go to the futures market and take a bet that the input prices will increas…

> So you go to the futures market and take a bet that the input prices will increase. If you’re right, you win $, which makes your widget manufacturing profitable and you’re still in business.

This isn't remotely how manufacturing works. Manufacturers are focused on making the widget, for them the most important thing is that material is available, not a paper contract.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#192

Post by rhaway84773 »

simoncion wrote: post #142
aintgonnatakeit wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same thing happens with the gas stove threads. I can’t believe that actual people are that invested in burning hydrocarbons.

> I can’t believe that actual people are that invested in burning hydrocarbons. Yeah, it's weird, right? Why _are_ people so invested in burning natgas and coal and other hydrocarbons for large-scale power generation when a plethora of proven near-zero-emissions alternatives exist? From a climate-change perspective, banning natgas cookstoves is a few pennies saved on like a thousand dollar expenditure. It's similar t…

There will be no “real dent”. You have to make small changes along with big changes.

And banning natural gas piped infrastructure is an easy win.

1. No one is banning natural gas stoves. You can still use a natural gas stove. You just need to bring your own cylinder like most of the world and half the food YouTubers already do.

2. Natural gas stoves have significant indoor pollution impact. It’s a huge benefit even outside the climate change side.

3. Natural gas infrastructure is expensive, dangerous and unnecessary. Cities will benefit from the removal of all those pipes from under their streets even if climate change wasn’t a thing.

Banning gas hookups is such an obvious win (again, for those who want, gas stoves are still available with a cylinder), it’s remarkable to see the level of status quo bias that exists.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#193

Post by newswasboring »

CogitoCogito wrote: post #72
newswasboring wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you expect, you are one making a positive claim. That the speculation market is helpful.

I see. Your claim that it it is entirely negative is fine to make without any support whereas my claim that there are some situations that could be positive (only one suffices) is not okay even when support has been given (any mine that is opened or distribution center that is opened employs speculation). You are just making a bunch of claims with no support but “people I trust say so so the claims are true”. Now I r…

I am taking the null position here. That the speculation market doesn't help. If something isn't helping and is extracting value from the market its by definition detrimental. The onus is on you to provide the proof for positive positions, that the speculation market does help.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#194

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Reason077 wrote: post #163
nindalf wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I have not seen any necessary gambling in my years in manufacturing. You need to manufacture a widget and it must cost no more than $5. You have a few inputs to your widget, some made with steel and some with plastic. If steel and plastic prices increase, your inputs cost more than $5 and you’re making a loss on every widget you sell. So you go to the futures market and take a bet that the input prices will increas…

In this example, the use of futures contracts isn't really gambling. Quite the opposite: it's insurance!

> it's insurance

What’s the person on the other side of the trade up to?

This debate reminds me of the lead up to the Onion Futures Act, where moral outrage over speculation led to a ban and subsequent lack of insurance (and higher price volatility) for onion farmers. To the point that the son of the farmer who first lobbied for the ban returned to Congress to ask for its repeal.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#195

Post by newswasboring »

hutzlibu wrote: post #71
CogitoCogito wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All your arguments are anecdote and opinion.

To me it seems, you both are rather debating semantics. Of course it is "speculating" trying to estimate fuel prices, but this is not meant, when people condemn "gambling" on the stock market. What they mean is people with lots money investing wherever short term profits are possible and often gaming the market while doing so. So creating unexpected price changes for the actual industries needing those supplies and t…

> So creating unexpected price changes for the actual industries needing those supplies and they obviously don't like that.

Followed by

> But I couldn't draw a clear line between "necessary gambling" and "unnecessary gambling".

What? you literally just drew a very crisp line.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#196

Post by rhaway84773 »

simoncion wrote: post #172
kibwen wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Forget burning, even pumping gas to residences is itself a big source of emissions, because of how leaky the pipes are. Between two to seven percent of all gas put into the system is lost directly to the atmosphere, and it's a very potent greenhouse gas. One way or the other, it needs to go away. It's not performative, it's necessary for achieving long-term emissions goals, and it's low-hanging fruit.

> One way or the other, it needs to go away. Sure, agreed. > It's not performative... Right now it very much is because, as you say: > ...it's low-hanging fruit. As I said: > ...banning natgas cookstoves is a few pennies saved on like a thousand dollar expenditure. and > [Low-impact, high-visibility stuff like that is done because] it's way easier than making a real dent in the underlying problem If you'll pardon the…

Setting aside the validity of your claim that it’s just a “few Pennie’s on a thousand dollar expenditure (which I strongly disagree with…banning natural gas hookups would be worth it even if climate change wasn’t a problem).

Your argument basically boils down to “I’m in debt and need to start spending thousands of dollars less. Cutting out this completely unnecessary expenditure will only save me a few dollars so I shouldn’t cut out this completely unnecessary expense because it won’t save me all the thousands I need to save”.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#197

Post by marcusverus »

botanical wrote: post #151
api wrote: post #111

The space is saturated with anti-EV FUD.

> A legacy of the Pinochet era in Chile is the privatisation of minerals and water, which gives companies ownership of those resources in an area. While mining operations squeeze this already dry region even drier, communities lose their access to potable water, leaving them relying on tankers to deliver it. “We used to have a river before that now doesn’t exist. There isn’t a drop of water,” says Rivera. “And not on…

Your article is pretending that the water access issues are caused by lithium mining. This is a specious argument that only makes sense because they omitted the obviously pertinent fact that Chile is in the grip of a decade-long drought.

That's FUD, my dude.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#198

Post by ororroro »

CyberDildonics wrote: post #165
kibwen wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas stoves need to go away because getting rid of gas infrastructure in the long term will be a huge win, but the gas industry spends heavily on propaganda to convince people otherwise: https://youtube.com/watch?v=hX2aZUav-54

If gas infrastructure is the problem, why focus on gas stoves and not gas water heaters and furnaces?

You may have confused the debate with the legislation. In NYC all gas is out under Local Law 154 of 2021.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#199

Post by bluefirebrand »

vostok wrote: post #154
simoncion wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can’t believe that actual people are that invested in burning hydrocarbons. Yeah, it's weird, right? Why _are_ people so invested in burning natgas and coal and other hydrocarbons for large-scale power generation when a plethora of proven near-zero-emissions alternatives exist? From a climate-change perspective, banning natgas cookstoves is a few pennies saved on like a thousand dollar expenditure. It's similar t…

I don't have any statistics on this, but I feel like I see far fewer plastic bags littering the streets these days. That alone is a win for me personally.

Give it time and you'll be seeing plenty of the reusable bags littering instead

In theory they are supposed to be reusable but in practice I think they are going to wind up being single-use for most people. Maybe we'll start using them as garbage bags as they accumulate around the house.

Re: Why are lithium prices collapsing?

#200

Post by Mistletoe »

quags wrote: post #76

Has there been a commodity that has spiked in price due to true lack of supply and non new supplies were found? From peak oil, to copper , lithium and rare earth minerals predictions of we will run out during a price shock always seem to turn into a price collapse.

Ethereum after it switched to proof of stake, but it just started.

https://ultrasound.money/

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