191–200 of 408 posts
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> [0] Another mantra: it's not. it's the best indicator so far.
It's also the same reasoning used by a Thanksgiving Turkey. The farmer has always come in and given the turkey food, so logically he will continue to do so. And it is true. Until it isn't. But the cost of that one day when it isn't is very high for the turkey.
SNL skit from the dot-com era: https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/152279877872567500... Does anyone have a solid understanding of how QE affects the economy? From what I've read, QE basically stays locked in the financial system as interbank cash. I think this can affect short term interest rates, and therefore affect lending(and money creation by the big banks), but otherwise that money doesn't really drive i…
>money creation by the big banks) How could this not cause inflation?
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Your strategy sounds like "pick winning stocks"? A strategy which has been show to produce (on average) worse returns than index investing. Index investing has produced a ~200% return in the past 15 years (from 2007 peak to now). Not sure what you mean by "a chance of seeing a profit in your lifetime".
No, it sounds like picking winning businesses. Big difference. Warren Buffet has said that he's a business picker, not a stock picker.
Look at a chart of the S&P 500 from 1920 to 2008 and you'll notice something rather curious: the stock market has gone parabolic ever since the financial crisis. What made this period so unique? Tremendously low interest rates coupled with quantitative easing dissuaded capital from financing the real economy and instead encouraged herding and levering up in the financial economy for returns. At ever dip, it was an op…
Every even modestly exponential curve has the same shape. https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=y+%3D+1.05%5Ex+from+1+t...
Sad to think that investing in the stock market, which I have only been able to financially over the last 5 years might have been much riskier than I might have previously thought. What I previously thought as "okay I just leave it in the stock market for a bit of time to recoup" is something I am now realizing would likely have to be 10+ years. It's kind of funny because I was getting shaky about having money in the…
I was pissed because I didn't invest in my portfolio to buy a house during the pandemic and missed out on pandemic gains - but checking how much money my portfolio lost, I made more money to keep those in cash.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Japan stock market JP225 didn't recover yet from 1990 crash.
Do Japanese people have to buy Japanese stocks just because it's the same country?
For a US centric view: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/032615/how-t...
I lived through the dot-com crash and got out safely after hearing something so ludicrous that I had to ask myself "How insane does this industry have to be for someone to think they can build a high growth internet company out of home cement delivery?" My memory may be playing tricks, but it was something like that. After 2008 I became interested with crashes throughout history. There are so many fascinating little…
Have you seen the movie Margin Call? There’s a great scene where the CEO of a Goldman-style bank is recapping the last 100+ years of global financial collapses and he mentions, “we just can’t help ourselves.” https://youtu.be/LtFyP0qy9XU One of the best banking movies I’ve ever seen. Jeremy Irons absolutely nails his role.
Look at a chart of the S&P 500 from 1920 to 2008 and you'll notice something rather curious: the stock market has gone parabolic ever since the financial crisis. What made this period so unique? Tremendously low interest rates coupled with quantitative easing dissuaded capital from financing the real economy and instead encouraged herding and levering up in the financial economy for returns. At ever dip, it was an op…
COVID is going on for two years now. What really changed is the Russia-Ukraine war, this goes with higher energy and higher food prices (most of the wheat and fertilizers come from that part of the world) that all that stuff trickles down, as they don't know how to fix the metrics now (i guess no one was prepared for such a turn of events...)
Most of the metrics for inflation are based on some technicalities (you can fix that, that's why we hadn't much of an inflation), but it can't cope with fundamentals like food and energy.