31–40 of 408 posts
> Buying the dip isn’t some secret strategy. Time is the secret strategy. Ah yes, the good ol' "time in market beats timing the market". Of course, that assumes that markets trend upwards in the (very) long term. Which... if past performance is any indicator of future performance [0], the past 100 years provide a fairly compelling narrative. [0] Another mantra: it's not.
it's the best indicator so far.
> Buying the dip isn’t some secret strategy. Time is the secret strategy. There is a Dutch guy out there with some rotted tulips who begs to differ.
Index investing will work, if you live for a long time. The problems are, we do not live infinitely, and the average person does not have the stomach to see their investment going down for years, unless that investment is small enough to tolerate (in which case it is not enough to make a big difference, for most people). What I think will work - not claiming that it will actually work - based on history: Invest in co…
Index investing has produced a ~200% return in the past 15 years (from 2007 peak to now). Not sure what you mean by "a chance of seeing a profit in your lifetime".
The Federal Reserve has taken on $9 trillion onto their balance sheet to flood the economy with money. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren... They’ve lowered short-term interest rates to effectively 0 and kept them there for quite a number of years. Federal and State governments have flooded the economy with stimulus. There is so much money that has been injected into the economy that it is n…
I honestly think that’s not the main reason we have inflation now. Since every country in the world is seeing similar inflation I would think it’s supply side and not something any central bank can fight. I’ve always been Keynesian, but it faces the same problem as everything else, you need to be able to predict the future to do it well.
It's not the Feds fault, it's the pandemic.
Sad to think that investing in the stock market, which I have only been able to financially over the last 5 years might have been much riskier than I might have previously thought. What I previously thought as "okay I just leave it in the stock market for a bit of time to recoup" is something I am now realizing would likely have to be 10+ years. It's kind of funny because I was getting shaky about having money in the…
Either you fret over every price move and likely buy/sell at the worst times, or you invest with a long-term vision and stop tracking the price moves everyday.
I lived through the dot-com crash and got out safely after hearing something so ludicrous that I had to ask myself "How insane does this industry have to be for someone to think they can build a high growth internet company out of home cement delivery?" My memory may be playing tricks, but it was something like that. After 2008 I became interested with crashes throughout history. There are so many fascinating little…
There’s a great scene where the CEO of a Goldman-style bank is recapping the last 100+ years of global financial collapses and he mentions, “we just can’t help ourselves.”
One of the best banking movies I’ve ever seen. Jeremy Irons absolutely nails his role.
Index investing will work, if you live for a long time. The problems are, we do not live infinitely, and the average person does not have the stomach to see their investment going down for years, unless that investment is small enough to tolerate (in which case it is not enough to make a big difference, for most people). What I think will work - not claiming that it will actually work - based on history: Invest in co…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I honestly think that’s not the main reason we have inflation now. Since every country in the world is seeing similar inflation I would think it’s supply side and not something any central bank can fight. I’ve always been Keynesian, but it faces the same problem as everything else, you need to be able to predict the future to do it well.
Fed balance sheet is about $9 trillion. This article gives details on $5 trillion in government stimulus. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/03/11/us/how-covid-... To put those numbers in perspective, the market cap of the entire S&P 500 is about $40 trillion. I hear what you’re saying about supply-side inflation but you don’t think flooding the economy with so much unearned money might be driving up demand a b…
No different today. Massively expand the money supply and you (eventually) get inflation. Add in a few supply issues and you amplify the problem. But I agree with you that without the massive monetary expansion, the supply issues would be minor blips.