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On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

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Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#191

Post by dreamcompiler »

dctoedt wrote: post #137
jeffrallen wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear is not: it needs grid power to be able to run.

> Nuclear is not: it needs grid power to be able to run. But the "grid power" needed to run the reactor's control systems, etc., can almost surely be generated by the reactor itself while it's online, right? A naval nuclear reactor needs external power only to get started; when the ship is in port, this will typically be shore power from the grid, and either in port or at sea the external power could come from the on…

> But the "grid power" needed to run the reactor's control systems, etc., can almost surely be generated by the reactor itself while it's online, right?

In theory, yes. But in practice, most nuclear power plants are required by law to trip offline if their local grid goes down or even experiences a minor disturbance [0]. Nuclear power plants always have onsite diesel generators to run pumps, operate control rods, and shut down the reactor if needed.

Nuclear plants are notoriously finicky about offsite power quality because they take a long time to ramp up and down and the consequences of e.g. losing cooling are potentially disastrous.

[0] http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2016/ph241/yang2/docs/bick...

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#192

Post by tshaddox »

londons_explore wrote: post #182
InitialLastName wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the last thing, AIUI from some research (confirmed as plausible by experience with similar systems): - The stream channels themselves are encrypted or scrambled in a way that is hard to unwind unless you have the keys (keeping non-SiriusXM radios from working) - Each radio has two important pieces of information: a decryption key from SiriusXM and a UUID (I'd guess 64bit, as that's a pretty standard size for hardw…

This may be the way SirusXM works, but it is far from optimal. The best scheme is to give the radios simple sequential (or near sequential) id's, and have the station transmit a bitmap of which id's are enabled/disabled. Then it's one bit per subscriber, and can be transmitted in a few seconds. That bitmap is authenticated by a public key stored in the radio. You might want to run length encode the bitmap if you assu…

Just a random thought regarding activation: they could also have a channel broadcasting all new activations, so that you could put your radio into an activation mode while you're finalizing your subscription. Or they could give you an activation code that you could enter manually somehow (it could just be a simple message signed with Sirius' private key).

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#193

Post by tshaddox »

InitialLastName wrote: post #178
tshaddox wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, I suspect power companies cannot generally shut off your power from their end. There's not a separate cable from the power plant to each individual home. There are really big cables that go most of the way from the power plant, then at each neighbhorhood or block they split off into smaller cables for individual homes. That's where the meter for each home is installed, and that's where the power company can turn…

On the last thing, AIUI from some research (confirmed as plausible by experience with similar systems): - The stream channels themselves are encrypted or scrambled in a way that is hard to unwind unless you have the keys (keeping non-SiriusXM radios from working) - Each radio has two important pieces of information: a decryption key from SiriusXM and a UUID (I'd guess 64bit, as that's a pretty standard size for hardw…

Yeah, they definitely must do decryption on the device, which means they must have some tamper-proof chip that has never been broken (as far as I can tell, there's no leaked decryption key). That's actually pretty surprising to me.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#194

Post by mint2 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #102
ahepp wrote: post #66

>Those that chose Griddy, chose higher risk, which comes with high potential rewards but also high potential losses When I lived in the poor part of town, "energy deregulation" companies were always coming around, aggressively trying to get me to sign up on the spot. They never talked about risk, they just told me I could sign here to save $100s on my power bill. I asked them about the details and they just lied thro…

> the idea of consumers responding to energy prices is nice, but has some pretty glaring issues I am a high-income New Yorker. If this were available to me, and if I could (a) set a cap past which I lose power or, preferably, (b) hedge by buying power call options, I’d take it. (Depending on the cost of (b).) That said, it’s a complicated financial product. We don’t sell derivatives, structured products and alternati…

I’m assuming Griddy didn’t allow users to set a cap. That should have been illegal even in an unregulated market.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#195

Post by ashtonkem »

twunde wrote: post #94
ahepp wrote: post #66

>Those that chose Griddy, chose higher risk, which comes with high potential rewards but also high potential losses When I lived in the poor part of town, "energy deregulation" companies were always coming around, aggressively trying to get me to sign up on the spot. They never talked about risk, they just told me I could sign here to save $100s on my power bill. I asked them about the details and they just lied thro…

TX is __slightly__ different in that its fully deregulated and there's simply more knowledge about REPs/ESCOs and their pricing (because they customers HAVE to choose a REP). Also in what other state do you see billboard ads for REPs? What is genuinely sad is that Griddy has a "price-lock" (ie a fixed rate) for the summer, which is exactly what you're talking about regarding tail risk. They just don't have it for the…

My understanding is that the energy markets started reacting to the polar vortex with days or weeks worth of warning, meaning that Griddy shouldn't have been that surprised that something was coming. Therefore it appears like Griddy was asleep at the helm, uninterested in doing anything about it, couldn't negotiate/hedge in time, or just internally confused.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#196

Post by InitialLastName »

tshaddox wrote: post #193
InitialLastName wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the last thing, AIUI from some research (confirmed as plausible by experience with similar systems): - The stream channels themselves are encrypted or scrambled in a way that is hard to unwind unless you have the keys (keeping non-SiriusXM radios from working) - Each radio has two important pieces of information: a decryption key from SiriusXM and a UUID (I'd guess 64bit, as that's a pretty standard size for hardw…

Yeah, they definitely must do decryption on the device, which means they must have some tamper-proof chip that has never been broken (as far as I can tell, there's no leaked decryption key). That's actually pretty surprising to me.

Well, now I've got to get a radio and have a look.

Looking at teardowns of the current Onyx radio [0], the NXP LPC4078FET180 has both a unique ID and some mechanisms to make it very difficult to read the programmed code externally. One option would be to store the key there, and use that mcu to run all the audio decryption, processing, device activation, and protocol updates (under the control of the TMX570 running the UI etc).

[0] https://fccid.io/RS2SXPL1/Internal-Photos/Onyx-Plus-Internal...

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#197

Post by soylentcola »

ashtonkem wrote: post #195
twunde wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TX is __slightly__ different in that its fully deregulated and there's simply more knowledge about REPs/ESCOs and their pricing (because they customers HAVE to choose a REP). Also in what other state do you see billboard ads for REPs? What is genuinely sad is that Griddy has a "price-lock" (ie a fixed rate) for the summer, which is exactly what you're talking about regarding tail risk. They just don't have it for the…

My understanding is that the energy markets started reacting to the polar vortex with days or weeks worth of warning, meaning that Griddy shouldn't have been that surprised that something was coming. Therefore it appears like Griddy was asleep at the helm, uninterested in doing anything about it, couldn't negotiate/hedge in time, or just internally confused.

Can't you say this for most things, though? People talked about the likelihood of a new contagious respiratory viral pandemic for years. Plans were drawn up, warnings were made, and the response was mostly "uh huh, that would suck for sure". Same could be said about anyone who's ever had their data lost to malware or hardware failure and didn't have a proper backup in place.

On some level I think it's human nature to underestimate some types of risk (and the nature of businesses to optimize for profit based on an understanding of this nature).

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#198

Post by cwhiz »

tehwebguy wrote: post #64
NovemberWhiskey wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Consented" in the sense of "agreed to a legal contract that permitted that outcome" or in the sense of "anticipated at the time they signed up to the contract that this was an outcome they would experience"?

I mean "consented" as far as a human being ever consents. If you ask me to give you a "high five" every day, but then suddenly one day you coat your hand with JB Weld before the high five without telling me and we have to be surgically separated that wasn't consent in any meaningful sense.

It’s always someone else’s fault. If you signed up for Griddy and didn’t know what you were getting into, that’s your fault. If you signed up for Griddy and knew the risks, that’s your fault. Either way, it’s your fault.

Griddy wasn’t some shady operation that hid the downside risks. Their customers were encouraged to monitor the real time rates and use electricity when it was cheap. The week before the storm Griddy was frantically trying to terminate accounts.

Is this entire country allergic to personal responsibility?

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#199

Post by teeray »

Most unexpected high costs like this are covered by some insurance product. Why is this an exception? For example: consumer bets that they will have an insane bill at some point, policy writer bets they won’t and a premium for this bet is established. Premiums can be adjusted by the $/KW threshold at which point the policy takes effect, and inevitably some deductible.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#200

Post by rfdave »

ArkanExplorer wrote: post #53
sokoloff wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no fundamental technical reason. It costs money to install the smart meters. It would cost more money to install control systems and automatic transfer switches, but even the smallest generator-backed (or multi-feed) datacenter has all the equipment technically needed to implement what you describe. Many large UPS units have everything as well. It's probably an additional $3-6K on top of the smart meter to bu…

Every second appliance has Wifi nowadays - but we need an industry standard that allows consumers to control usage based on price, perhaps by assigning specific appliances in your house to your energy retailer web account, and then allowing the retailer/grid operator to control when they are turned off and on (or to adjust their energy intensity) in return for a monthly discount. For example just by heating and cooli…

That's awesome. Now I have to buy all new appliances, with poorly implemented WiFi stacks, trash all my older, fully functional appliances (Oh, how environmentally friendly will that be?) to let my local power company save me $20/month. Sounds like a fantastic deal.
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