Live data from Hacker News

On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

astanway.medium.com

61–70 of 223 posts

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you do if you're away from home one day, and you get a text message that electricity prices have increased 100x? Can you cut power to your house?

Step 1 would likely be to use your smartphone app to set your Internet enabled thermostat down to its lowest setting, probably 55F. High enough that the pipes don't freeze, but low enough to save energy. Probably not cooking anything either unless you have a gas grill. Definitely not plugging in the electric car. If this happens during the middle of summer then you turn the A/C off and hope the house can coast for th…

I’ll note that I don’t have electric heat or central air. My electric is utilization is pretty low.

When I signed up I looked at the data for pricing and there wasn’t a time period in the data where I didn’t save. Now obviously that’s sort of the point of tail risk.

I’ve been looking for our regulators caps but haven’t found them yet.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#62
This article reeks of the author (and author's customers who read this blog) trying to justify away their internal guilt. Author is trying to paint a picture that "there is so much complexity this isn't easy to fix and no clear party to blame".

Nonsense. There should be a price ceiling to consumers during natural disasters like this and regulations powerful enough to mitigate them more effectively.

People are not able to make rational financial decisions when reducing power consumption means your 11 year old child could freeze to death. I think the death count from exposure (freezing to death) in TX during that period is now 4, and I expect that will climb as we get a more full picture.

Meanwhile, many office buildings and rich neighborhoods had relatively uninterrupted power. What resulted in this class-stratification of power availability?

An energy exec was recorded on a call saying that the storm was "very good for them" in reference to the high profits made during the storm. Should these companies be allowed to rake in cash on one side of the system while passing thousands of dollars bills to their consumers on the other side to profit off human misery and misfortune?

On the other side, other energy companies skimped on winterization, leading to their gas lines freezing. Does anyone think "not being able to price gouge during the 4 most profitable days this year" is sufficient market-punishment to change behavior of these actors?

ERCOT and the energy players built a system that killed several people and made hundreds of thousands miserable. Author says "ERCOT is not evil", but I disagree: intent is irrelevant if greed motivated lack or risk management results in this scale of death, misery and destruction. Everyone working to make energy a "free market" in Texas has a share of the blood on their hands from building a system that led to this outcome. There should be a thorough investigation and several people deserve to end up in prison as a result. But, being that this occurred in "free market" loving Texas, I won't be holding my breath.

Perfect example of why basic human needs should not be run as a for-profit "free market".

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#63

In the UK energy supplier Octopus has an "agile" tariff which is similar to griddy (we are increasingly getting negative prices here). However, it has a 35p/kWh price cap (2-3x average rates). I don't understand why Griddy didn't do something similar. Even a $1/kWh price cap would have really helped them.

In the UK, consumer and contract law mean that it is not possible, afaik, to have 'open-ended' contracts. I.e. a party to a contract must always be able to determine how much entering into the contract is going to cost them and/or they must be be able to leave with a capped and known worst-case. That's why there are always caps or capped increases.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#64

There are some interesting details here but let's be suuuper clear, nobody in the residential sector consented to a 12,000% increase in power costs or a $5,000 - $16,000 power bill this month. I think the article tries extremely hard to forgive everyone involved aside from the residents who have now been completely devastated by this. The only real acknowledgement that residents have truly suffered something they did…

"Consented" in the sense of "agreed to a legal contract that permitted that outcome" or in the sense of "anticipated at the time they signed up to the contract that this was an outcome they would experience"?

I mean "consented" as far as a human being ever consents. If you ask me to give you a "high five" every day, but then suddenly one day you coat your hand with JB Weld before the high five without telling me and we have to be surgically separated that wasn't consent in any meaningful sense.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that's kind of ridiculous. Like picking pennies up in front of a steamroller. Granted, if the cost savings were enough, a homeowner could install a battery/genset backup with the savings and have that automatically switch over when prices got nuts, but that's not within the abilities or even mindset of most people.

> Granted, if the cost savings were enough They probably are enough over long periods, or retailers wouldn't be profitable. However that assumes you hedge properly. If you treat your savings from "good times" as extra cash to spend you're going to get burned to the ground by the bad times. It also means you have to be extremely reactive, now you need a setup to quickly cutoff electricity if wholesale prices skyrocket…

> If you treat your savings from "good times" as extra cash to spend you're going to get burned to the ground by the bad times.

Exactly, though to give a lot of customers of these plans credit, they don't have the extra cash. Griddy's own marketing says that "96% of the time," the wholesale rate is well under the average retail per-kWh rate.

This is yet another one of those hidden costs of how being lower-income is very expensive, both in actual money, and in time. Vanishingly few people have the time to be as on the ball as they'd need to for plans like this to work. And you can automate it, but that costs money many of these customers don't have.

I have no problems with plans like this existing; my issue is we set people up to fail by danging the large-print number being a very small value, while not warning people of how catastrophically it can go--and has gone--very wrong.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#66
>Those that chose Griddy, chose higher risk, which comes with high potential rewards but also high potential losses

When I lived in the poor part of town, "energy deregulation" companies were always coming around, aggressively trying to get me to sign up on the spot.

They never talked about risk, they just told me I could sign here to save $100s on my power bill. I asked them about the details and they just lied through their teeth.

This was in MI, not TX. Maybe Griddy is different. I suspect they farm out signup to the same type of contractors.

I think the idea of consumers responding to energy prices is nice, but has some pretty glaring issues.

How many consumers are aware of hourly energy prices? How many on deregulated plans even understand that they pay more when usage is high?

Can they react fast enough to changing prices? Leaving a light on during vacation should cost you some money, but it shouldn't wipe out your 401k.

This article seems to suggest the answer is a fully automated smart home, with some kind of AI to intelligently manage your power usage. Sounds awesome, but I don't think that's ever going to be a reality outside the valley.

At the end of the day, it still comes down to losing power or losing 5 figures of cash that you probably don't have. Most people aren't in a position to be "homo economicus" when it comes to heating their home in a blizzard. It doesn't solve their problem to give them a choice between losing power, or going bankrupt. Many will choose to lose power, and die running their car in the garage just the same as if they had a blackout.

If price sensitivity causes someone to set the AC on 80 the hottest day of the year, that's great. But expecting consumers to handle tail risk is a silly idea.

I suspect you could get 99% of the effect by only passing a small price window to consumers, and managing the tail risk collectively.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#67

It strikes me that Texas is suffering the same sort of problems that companies that switch to just-in-time delivery do. When everything is working they're more efficient and can out-compete their neighbors, but since they're running with little to no safety margin it only takes one incident to cause immediate disruption to the line. Of course when the consequence of a disruption is you miss your production targets fo…

Companies that do just in time in fact are careful to manage their supply chain for this. I know my company orders steel 3-6 months in advance, in part because this eventually reaches all the way back to the miners digging the ore. They now can plan their work to ensure they don't have to pay overtime to meet our orders (compare to when we figured out the best price of the year and ordered a 1 year supply for delivery next week) which keeps costs down.

Insurance is a major part of any market, and insurance is very good to managing unusual events or externalities that matter.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#68
post #2

If you're feeding power back into the grid are you getting paid at these rates?

I have solar on my house and in IL we get paid via "net metering": https://www.citizensutilityboard.org/illinois-net-metering/ . The idea is you size a system for your annual energy consumption, and then you don't pay for electricity for the year. If you sold the power back for real-time pricing you'd need a much larger system than your annual consumption. Net metering basically lets you sell the power back at a reta…

From what I understand there is a lot of variation in providers. As I understand SDGE's Net Metering policy(https://www.sdge.com/residential/solar/getting-started-with-...), you sell back power at retail prices only for the current month's billing cycle. Excess energy created within a billing cycle is "true-upped" at wholesale prices which can be applied to other month's billing cycles.

I would also be curious in how the Texas case works. Especially if the grid is down, would it be able to accept the energy you are producing?

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#69
post #57

It strikes me that Texas is suffering the same sort of problems that companies that switch to just-in-time delivery do. When everything is working they're more efficient and can out-compete their neighbors, but since they're running with little to no safety margin it only takes one incident to cause immediate disruption to the line. Of course when the consequence of a disruption is you miss your production targets fo…

See also: hospitals running at close full capacity in a normal year[1], and then a pandemic comes along. [1]: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-26/...

Perhaps, but health care is so heavily managed nobody can call it a market. Most communities have a limit on how many hospital beds that are allowed which means that there isn't even an opportunity to do much better.

Re: On power markets, snow storms, and $16k power bills

#70
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That means you're not on the market. You just have a more complicated fixed rate plan.

I understand that -- but it seems like the main point of the article is: > I believe we ultimately need some degree of real time price exposure for consumers if we are to induce these kinds of widespread energy efficiency investments, because it can and does encourage significant reductions in individual electricity consumption during times of peak grid demand, which is good for the grid and good for the planet. And…

But also as you pointed out that doesn't really help in cases like last week because you're not being directly affected by this market shift.

In fact your plan was probably counterproductive since the cheapest power to you came when it was most expensive to the operator--over night.

Post reply on HN