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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#191

Post by parasubvert »

bhouston wrote: post #48
parasubvert wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin isn’t likely to be banned. Might as well ban World of Warcraft gold while you’re at it. Clearly it has value as a speculative vehicle and as a systemic risk hedge (like Gold). Whether it can become a true currency is still debatable. Its infrastructure feels more like selling stock or bonds today.

It is not a currency. It is an asset like gold for sure. I think because it is deflationary in nature, it will stay an asset. Currencies need inflation to encourage spending.

100x this. I still don't quite get the logic behind hard money.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#192

Post by yownie »

panarky wrote: post #173
mvind wrote: post #137

One point as a researcher working in a central bank and studying state-of-the art macroeconomic theory, is the absolute conviction that some crypto holders have that society is rotten to the core and that the financial industry (and for that matter the broader well established large cap economy) is a malfunctioning/rotten machine only benefiting the 1%. I mean reading journals on monetary policy transmission, central…

1) This is a clickbait headline. TFA doesn't say there's a 50% chance of a collapse tonight. It says there's a 50% chance of collapse at some point in the next year. 2) TFA also says the reason Bitcoin futures are contango (6 month contract costs more than 3 month contract) on the Chicago Merc is because of counterparty risk with Bitcoin exchanges. But it also says there's zero counterparty risk with the Chicago Merc…

>3) We should immediately discount stories about cryptoassets from any site that can't manage to set up a TLS cert.

100% this

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#193

Post by ffggvv »

anm89 wrote: post #180
ffggvv wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i bought bitcoin and understood block chains in 2013. just because someone disagrees with you doesn’t mean they are dumb. and maybe sometimes you’re the one that doesn’t know what you’re talking about

You seem to be lacking an understanding of the most basic principles of bitcoin, ie permissionless decentralization backed by proof of work which would not function with existing SQL databases.

no im saying the actual practical use. keeping track of who owns what can be accomplished way better with a centralized database.

the only thing novel is that its decentralized and inefficient but the average user really doesnt care about that.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#194

Post by eimrine »

Tepix wrote: post #78
eimrine wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What probability to meet a dinosaur walking next to your house? It is 50%, either you will meet it or not.

If you accept bets, I'm sure the odds won't be 50/50 as they are here.

"«Dear fellows», Nasreddin said calmly, «before twenty years are up, either I, or Timur, or my donkey will die»."

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#195

Post by 74d-fe6-2c6 »

I'm convinced Bitcoin won't collapse any time soon. Quite the opposite. It seems like it is being systematically established as a pseudonymous and transnational wealth storage by very powerful and wealthy people all around the world. I own about 0.3 BTC and intend to sell at €100k per BTC.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#196

Post by Closi »

bhouston wrote: post #75
Closi wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with belief is that the Bitcoin price only raises when you find new people who believe in it to put more money into it. As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable. And once price stability is reached, because the price isn't appreciating anymore, people will want to start spending their earnings. And as BTC in particular isn't actuall…

The stock market continues to go up even though its adoption is already widespread. The reason is that governments continue to print USD, and other currencies, which they get invested, re-loaded out, etc. I expect that this can continue in Bitcoin as well for quite some time if there continues to be a shared belief in its intrinsic value.

A shared belief in intrinsic value? What's the calculation then that results in the current bitcoin price without referring to it's existing or historical price?

The stock market goes up because you are looking at a market index of the biggest companies, which are growing bigger as markets concentrate. The difference is if you have a share for a year, it earns you a return separate to what happens to the price of the stock (i.e. a dividend), and this is the intrinsic value (i.e. you can do a fundamental analysis of the stock to reach a price). If you hold onto a Bitcoin for a year it might be worth more, but only because the market is pricing it differently, not because of any fundamentals. This is why it does not have intrinsic value.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#197

Post by Closi »

thebean11 wrote: post #123
Closi wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with belief is that the Bitcoin price only raises when you find new people who believe in it to put more money into it. As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable. And once price stability is reached, because the price isn't appreciating anymore, people will want to start spending their earnings. And as BTC in particular isn't actuall…

This doesn't sound right to me. It seems like your analysis assumes that BTC has already become a store of value, and people are putting excess income into it, like gold. In that future, why wouldn't there be buyers? There aren't new people earning money and investing excess income? People need to turn gold into fiat in order to spend it. Those are people with excess wealth and not enough income. There will always be…

More specifically, I'm assuming that they are a speculative instrument where people are expecting positive growth (i.e. that bitcoins become more valuable over time).

The supply of new people earning money who will want to invest income into Bitcoin has to be finite. Growth can't continue forever because you always need to find someone new who is willing to pay more than you did for a bitcoin/satoshi to keep the price growing, and there isn't an infinite supply of people with an infinite supply of money.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#198

Post by Closi »

Tepix wrote: post #54
Closi wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with belief is that the Bitcoin price only raises when you find new people who believe in it to put more money into it. As soon as the BTC market reaches maximum penetration and no new buyers can be found, Bitcoin becomes price stable. And once price stability is reached, because the price isn't appreciating anymore, people will want to start spending their earnings. And as BTC in particular isn't actuall…

You're not taking inflation into account.

Inflation isn't the driving force here.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#199

Post by Closi »

megameter wrote: post #187
mvind wrote: post #137

One point as a researcher working in a central bank and studying state-of-the art macroeconomic theory, is the absolute conviction that some crypto holders have that society is rotten to the core and that the financial industry (and for that matter the broader well established large cap economy) is a malfunctioning/rotten machine only benefiting the 1%. I mean reading journals on monetary policy transmission, central…

I do think everyone saying "this can't go on forever" is correct, but lacks the imagination to describe the possible scenarios, and instead points to the speculation and energy/capital consumption as a given. But it's not a bubble in the usual sense - the miners and speculators are encouraging each other, giving pricing a rising base and profitable peaks over the course of multiple market cycles. That base will keep…

> as mining network consolidates and it gets harder to acquire more power, it becomes urgent to support the price by finding other sources of value to attach to the chain being mined.

The amount of power used to mine a bitcoin will always raise in the long run so that the power costs approximately the same as a bitcoin at industrial electricity prices, less a contribution to the mining capital (e.g. the ASIC miner) and margin.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#200

Post by anm89 »

nostrademons wrote: post #151

Makes sense. Most of the folks who have been in Bitcoin 6+ years have observed multiple crashes, exchanges going bust, Bitcoins vanishing into the ether (no pun intended), and people being unable to recover their assets. People hold Bitcoin as insurance against the dollar collapsing. It makes no sense to assume that both Bitcoin and dollars will be circulating currencies: currency is a winner-take-all market, the mos…

> currency is a winner-take-all market

You are aware of other currencies,let's say the Euro, right?

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