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Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

theguardian.com

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Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#181

Post by joe_mamba »

ahartmetz wrote: post #26
joe_mamba wrote: post #5

I think Ferrari, Lambo, Rolls Royce, Bugatti, Zonda etc. will do just fine with selling luxury ICEs with many cylinders that go vroom to rich people. In fact they'll probably do better as global wealth gap increases. It's the Audis, BMWs, Mercedes, etc of Europe they'll probably end up the way of Philips, Blaupunkt, Alcatel, Grundig, Nokia, Thomson, Gigaset, SAgem, etc. meaning selling off their consumer civilian ope…

No way that European car companies give up that easily. I bet you didn't know that VW is currently the #1 EV seller in Europe and #1 car seller in China (with a small but increasing fraction of EVs there, though): https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw... https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw...

Same VW models in China cost about 50% less than in EU.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#182

Post by rsynnott »

tahoeskibum wrote: post #2

Weird headline: Japanese carmakers are doing the same error, while Tesla (an American company) is the one of the leading electric carmakers... I'd just replace it with Legacy Carmakers (e.g. Ford, GM, Toyota and so on).

The third-biggest BEV maker is VW AG, a legacy car brand. Likely soon the second, given their hefty (33% last year) growth vs Tesla’s modest shrinkage; unless something changes they’ll overtake in a year or so.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#183

Post by maxerickson »

ericmay wrote: post #159
hypeatei wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sure if $37k is a lot for a car 37k with 20% down payment means you borrow $29k at say, a 4.79% interest rate for 60 months so... $556/month. I know we're on HN with high salaried tech workers but c'mon, that's a lot of money and doesn't even include insurance. That and their base model 3 is RWD which makes it a non-starter for anyone who drives in snow/ice. The AWD model starts at $47k.

A Honda CRV Hybrid for example starts at $35k (Accord Hybrid is 34k) and that's a pretty common vehicle here in Ohio. We could debate the capabilities and such and what you get for your money, but I'm just not in an agreement that $37k is a lot of money for a car. I've owned a base model 3 RWD and live in Ohio where we regularly get all of the weather, sometimes the same day even. I would rather drive that than an AW…

Well, speaking as someone who is moderately price sensitive, I'm probably going to shop for a used car.

I'm not sure people are reading my comments above as making 2 comparisons. I used "decent hybrids" as a group of cars that are roughly comparable to the Model 3, but more convenient in areas where chargers are sparse (in northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, you pretty much have to plan your route to the available chargers).

And then I noted that there are cars that are available for quite a lot less, so anyone that is price sensitive probably isn't going to be shopping for a new electric vehicle that costs nearly $40k.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#184

Post by rsynnott »

xp84 wrote: post #43
tpm wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On long-term support and parts availability perhaps - I seriously doubt most of Chinese models bought now will have parts readily available in 5+ years. VW (and their other brands) and BMW have good new EVs coming to market now, while Toyota is waking up too. They will survive I think. Stellantis though, not sure about them. And many Chinese carmakers will be gone too.

If Stellantis dies it won’t be because of insufficient EV zeal. It’ll be because they mostly make garbage cars no one wants. Saw this funny video about the top 10 cars with the most still-unsold inventory of their 2024(!) MY: https://youtu.be/R20QEyrQ2FE?si=cou6HgknYQOc8zbt

Stellantis, the company which owns all the brands which make you go “wait, they still exist?!” when you see one.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#185

Post by rsynnott »

joe_mamba wrote: post #181
ahartmetz wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No way that European car companies give up that easily. I bet you didn't know that VW is currently the #1 EV seller in Europe and #1 car seller in China (with a small but increasing fraction of EVs there, though): https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw... https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw...

Same VW models in China cost about 50% less than in EU.

Which should in itself tell you that VW can compete on price if it has to.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#186

Post by oompydoompy74 »

M0r13n wrote: post #82

I've had a rough time with the last two EVs I've owned. I bought a Honda e in 2020 because of its retro-future charm, but ended up being disappointed by several things: - the range was miserable - the software quality was bad - no OTA updates ever (despite Honda's promises) - slow charging - poor public charging infrastructure in Germany I should have known that a 35 kW battery wouldn't deliver great range or chargin…

Might I suggest choosing an EV that has more range?

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#187

Post by joe_mamba »

rsynnott wrote: post #185
joe_mamba wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same VW models in China cost about 50% less than in EU.

Which should in itself tell you that VW can compete on price if it has to.

I never said they can't sell in China. My question with this was if they can maintain the same levels of profitability they enjoyed during the ICE glory days, as a lot of EU economies are dependent on the profitability of the auto sector. If profits slump, then so will the lives of a lot of working class Europeans. Keep in mind the auto sector used the be the biggest R&D spender in EU.

Some companies accept a profit loss in some markets compensated by the profit gains in others in the interest of capturing a growing market so this might distort VW's success in China.

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#188

Post by rsynnott »

PreciousH wrote: post #18

no one is willing to admit the EV tech isn't just there yet to fully replace gas powered cars?

They just have to replace most use cases. There will come a point, not too far away, where battery progress makes them cheaper to purchase than petrol cars (for many use cases the point may already have come where TCO is lower, and Trump’s oil crisis will only speed the arrival of that point for more use cases.)

Re: Western carmakers' retreat from electric risks dooming them to irrelevance

#190

Post by rsynnott »

sirjaz wrote: post #91

But what about Hydrogen? Many ICE companies would be better to focus on that. It would allow legacy vehicles to stay on the road, and fix the range anxiety in places like the US which is way bigger than all of the EU and bigger than the populated parts of China.

People have been trying hydrogen. It’s generally a bit of a disaster.

And increasingly I think that is being quietly admitted. It has a weird afterlife in buses (where the range potential is interesting for long-range intercity routes), but even there, at this point, it’s marginal. The Irish transport authority placed an order a few years back for 800 BEV buses… and three hydrogen buses, for instance. A decade ago, BEV buses and hydrogen buses were both basically experimental. Today BEV buses are ordered by the thousand; hydrogen buses are still experimental.

(Also I expect hydrogen _trains_ to hang around as a concept for a while, and it _may_ actually be viable there where adding overhead lines is not.)

> It would allow legacy vehicles to stay on the road

How? Hydrogen cars _are electric cars_; they just have a fuel cell instead of a battery. If you’re imagining that they have, er, a four stroke engine that they burn hydrogen in or something, yeah, that’s not a thing.

I suppose if you wanted to get _really_ weird you could have a hydrogen turbine car? But again, that’s nothing like current petrol cars tech (and would be horribly inefficient relative to the fuel cell ones).

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