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Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

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Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#181

Post by kanzenryu2 »

heisenzombie wrote: post #157
aftbit wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh really? I didn't know that. If they cannot perform work, how can we detect them?

The OP might be making a more subtle point, but my understanding is they absolutely can do work. We can measure the deceleration of binary neutron stars with a rate predicted by the emission of gravitational waves. Deceleration == work. However, we can also measure things that don’t do work, for example, a static magnetic field does no work on a charged particle (it cannot change its kinetic energy) but look at the s…

I'm wrong on the work thing, but I don't think we can always regard deceleration as work, since that only works for Newtonian mechanics. Under GR there is an extra term in the equation allowing for acceleration without work.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#183

Post by SiempreViernes »

refibrillator wrote: post #167
idlewords wrote: post #6

The key claim in the paper ( https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.12310.pdf ) is that there are detectable changes in cosmic ray activity around 15 days before major seismic events. One posited mechanism is that stuff happens deep in the earth that affects the magnetic field first, and then kicks off some big earthquake. But they don't rule out loopier ideas (like sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that the…

> looking for precursor patterns in an ad hoc way, with no physical theory in mind A bit of skepticism is healthy but some of these threads are approaching downright dismissive. There's a long history of research in this area to be aware of, though I know the paper in question doesn't elaborate on it. Here's one physical theory for you, straight from NASA [1]. > In the ionosphere, the solar winds generate electrical…

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Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#184

Post by SiempreViernes »

refibrillator wrote: post #163
mjhay wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Geomagnetism is easily measurable and has been monitored for a long time. The central claim is that changes in cosmic ray frequencies can predict earthquakes. The proposed causal mechanism is changes in the geodynamo affecting the propagation of cosmic rays. The effect on cosmic rays is secondary to the changes in geomagnetism. Despite decades of people looking for evidence, changes in geomagnetism are not associated…

You're incorrect or confused on several aspects so let me break it down for you. Frequency of detection of secondary cosmic radiation is very sensitive to geomagnetic conditions. That is not up for dispute. The paper in question provides statistical evidence that "variations of secondary cosmic ray detection rates are periodically correlated with future global earthquake magnitude sum". The paper contains no claims a…

The linked article fails many test of credemtialing, but most egregious is the entirely fale presemtation of "Geo Cosmo Science and Research Center" (really this: https://www.geocosmo.net) as being a NASA lab.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#185

Post by magicalhippo »

idlewords wrote: post #170
anigbrowl wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing that troubles me in the paper is that the researchers appear to have gone looking for precursor patterns in an ad hoc way, with no physical theory in mind That seems like an extremely good thing to me. Looking for patterns and then figuring out causality later is a great way to solve real-world problems. Of course you can be led astray if your filters are too open, but if your work is rigorous and you still…

If you dredge through enough random data, you will always find a six sigma correlation (or five, or however many sigmas you want), kind of by definition. This is why experimenters like particle physicists or gravitational wave astronomers who have petabytes of raw data have to define their criteria in advance, instead of just going to town looking for patterns. I agree with you that if this observation proves to have…

It wasn't entirely clear to me, but seems they've taken care of the look-elsewhere effect[1]. If so, that's at least something, no?

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Look-elsewhere_effect

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#186

Post by blincoln »

avaldez_ wrote: post #132
blincoln wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least one of the videos linked from the references in that article is pretty dramatic, with frequent pulses of blue light from different locations near the ground.[1] If there is a link between cosmic radiation and earthquakes (and that's a very big "if"), could it be Cherenkov radiation caused by super-high-energy particles exceeding the speed of electromagnetic radiation in bedrock/soil/whatever (not C, obviousl…

I live in Chile, one of the most seismically active countries in the world, and been through several earthquakes. Those lights? Just transformers and power lines blowing up. In the 2010 earthquake [1] we had several >6 Mag. aftershocks for days and we didn't see more flashes after the first shaking, simply because there wasn't power anymore. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Chile_earthquake

Did you see anything like the number of blue flashes from transformers that are in that video? That was what I assumed at first as well, but it seems like far too many, unless there's something different about the way electrical grids are wired up in Mexico and Chile.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#188

Post by jtc331 »

anigbrowl wrote: post #160
idlewords wrote: post #6

The key claim in the paper ( https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.12310.pdf ) is that there are detectable changes in cosmic ray activity around 15 days before major seismic events. One posited mechanism is that stuff happens deep in the earth that affects the magnetic field first, and then kicks off some big earthquake. But they don't rule out loopier ideas (like sunspot activity driving changes in the Earth's dynamo that the…

One thing that troubles me in the paper is that the researchers appear to have gone looking for precursor patterns in an ad hoc way, with no physical theory in mind That seems like an extremely good thing to me. Looking for patterns and then figuring out causality later is a great way to solve real-world problems. Of course you can be led astray if your filters are too open, but if your work is rigorous and you still…

This is literally the definition of p-hacking, and no, it is not a good thing.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#189

Post by ChatGTP »

jxramos wrote: post #92
refibrillator wrote: post #90

Our understanding of the relationship between sun and earth has barely begun to sprout. Popular discourse tends to be dominated by Newtonian ideas, as if earth was simply a rock in empty space orbiting a massive fireball called the sun. We landed on the surface of the moon by using such approximations. But they fail to explain many observations that modern technology has opened our eyes to. For example, the coronal h…

> Why does the temperature of the sun’s atmosphere increase as you get further away from the surface? We still don’t know exactly. Kind of reminds me of the inner tip of the blue cone in the Bunsen burner which is supposed to be the hottest point of combustion rather than at the bottom of the flame, and the top of the flame is supposedly the coolest?

This always amazed me too. I guess we’re taught hot air rises but this does not apply to the way gas burns.

Honestly I feel like all knowledge is some type of best effort approximation and I think it’s important to stay skeptical and open minded. I think it’s also a fun way to live. Enjoy the mysteries.

Knowing all the things would be an insufferable bore.

Re: Surges of cosmic radiation from space directly linked to earthquakes

#190

Post by refibrillator »

SiempreViernes wrote: post #183
refibrillator wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> looking for precursor patterns in an ad hoc way, with no physical theory in mind A bit of skepticism is healthy but some of these threads are approaching downright dismissive. There's a long history of research in this area to be aware of, though I know the paper in question doesn't elaborate on it. Here's one physical theory for you, straight from NASA [1]. > In the ionosphere, the solar winds generate electrical…

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