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Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

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Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we still treat (or want to) Russia as a rational actor. People clearly do not treat Russia as a rational actor, given that everyone seems to assume Russia permanently ends European dependency on its fuel by blowing up their own equipment in NATO territory is the primary actual real go-to theory to be taken seriously. I'm not trying to dismiss your speculations about mafioso-style thinking. I mean, assuming all of t…

> Russia permanently ends European dependency on its fuel I'm dubious to the max that the pipelines can't be repaired fairly quickly.

The article indicates not easy or quick.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#182
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It didn't happen in international waters. It happened in Danish, Swedish and Finnish waters. Denmark is in NATO.

And everyone in NATO is doing their best to ignore it, because they know where war leads. People ignore acts of war all the time to keep the peace where nuclear arms are involved. NS1 and NS2 aren't shipping any gas, and notionally are "Russian": dramatic but no change in the status quo. Blowing a pipeline between two NATO members which is shipping gas and imperils their population is very different: NATO can't ignor…

[deleted]

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean the smoking gun here is a statement from Biden back in February that they will take steps to stop it. Official statement: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases... > As I have made clear, we will not hesitate to take further steps if Russia continues to escalate. Interview quotes: > "If Russia invades... again, then there will be longer Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it." > When a…

> "the smoking gun" That's not a smoking gun.

Here's some helicopters flying over the exact explosion locations on sept 2nd: https://twitter.com/BNNBreaking/status/1574804363280719876

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think that Sweden and Denmark surveil every single dinghy and fishing boat and yacht and ferry? That if a tugboat stops for 3 or 4 or 8 hours along the 2400km stretches of the Nord Stream pipelines, the coast guards will swoop in with helicopters and snipers. Yeah, no. No, that would not have happened.

No, but they definitely have the possibility after the event to replay recordings from their very nice naval radar systems to see if there was a surface vessel doing something in those locations. Also, I understand the depth of the pipeline is 80-100 meters so you need divers experienced with hypoxic trimix (or an ROV) and you need to be able to carry a 50-100 kg payload in addition to all the diving kit. Just to qua…

I'm one training short of hypoxic trimix (after a regular trimix course). I think you seriously over-estimate the complexity: open-water course is 3 days, advanced open-water is 2 days, nitrox is ... half a day?, basic tech diving (advanced nitrox + decompression procedures) is 7 days (50-100 dives minimum iirc), trimix is another 7 to 10 days.

Loads of people I know did all that without any difficulty and without leaving their day job. They weren't in the navy either.

The most advanced thing that I see here is how do you trigger the explosion underwater, plus of course getting the explosives somewhere.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#185
post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

One must build elaborate, implausible motivations for everyone in order to maintain the "It's definitely Russia" theory when there are more plausible, direct motivations to hand in the "Anyone but Russia" theory.

Who stands to benefit from permanently ending European dependence on Russian fuel?

Norway? To conclude Norway (it's not Norway, but for example), one can simply point at the loss of a competitor. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.

To conclude a German opposition group, one can simply point at the effect of the loss of the pipelines. Scholz government cannot heat Germans this winter, opposition gets to criticize the sitting government for over-reliance on Russia and such fragile infrastructure. Opposition wins the election. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.

To conclude any one of the Baltic States (or Poland), one can simply point at the effect of the end of European dependence on Russian energy. It removes the most persistent barrier to implementing harsher sanctions, and a weaker Russia is less likely to invade them for a generation or two. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.

Poland, for its part, has the added lucrative benefit of being the sole endpoint of the sole working trans-Baltic pipeline. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.

To conclude anyone at all who support Ukraine, one can simply point that it weakens Russia's war effort, hastening an end to the war and making Russia more vulnerable to sanctions. No weird 4D chess, no weird contorted motives. Direct, simple.

To conclude Russia or Putin, one must explain how losing potential access to hundreds of billions of Euros benefits Russia or Putin. (Hint: it doesn't). Requires weird 4D chess, weird contorted motives. Not direct. Not simple.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#186
post #108
post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

I had your exact same reaction, except with the US at the top of the suspects list (or non-governmental agents whose interests align with the US, of which there are plenty). The #1 reason I'm still leaning Russia nevertheless is because of an outside factor: Russia isn't screaming bloody murder about it . If 3/4th of their pipelines had gone up and nobody in the Russian government was involved, Lavrov would already b…

But if the Russians were screaming bloody murder, this would no doubt be used to accuse them. So:

Russians screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it.

Russians aren't screaming bloody murder => see? Russians are the ones who did it.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#187
post #164
post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

Diving down 60-80 meters in the baltic ocean is quite advanced technical diving if you are just going to go down there and up again. Doing any kind of work (which increase breathing) at those depths is a massive step in complexity. We are talking about cold water diving, at hypoxic gas depths, with usually low visibility. The dive would require several hours of decompression in the middle of a shipping lane. The dens…

As someone with diving experience I laughed at parent comment's "anyone with scuba gear" assertion too - a classic example of "I'm an expert at everything because I'm a smart programmer who makes $200k a year" arrogance that is endemic here - but you're right next to them.

- The timing of the explosions doesn't require "multiple coordinated teams." It requires timers. Or, as is common with naval mines, an acoustic arming/triggering signal.

- Commercial diving happens several times deeper than 80m. Hundreds of meters, in fact.

- Saturation diving techniques mean a crew could be brought to the working depth inside the ship's chamber, transferred to a diving bell, dropped down to the pipeline, do their work, go back into the bell, be brought up into the ship, transferred into the ship's decompression chamber, and decompress.

- You're assuming such an operation would be based from the surface. If a nation-state was involved, who says they arrived or departed by surface ship? The Jimmy Carter is for exactly this sort of stuff. It was practically a sport for the USSR and US to tap undersea communications cables. We had the capability to do that without being undetected (including from systems that are designed to detect faults and tampering, but also deal with the cable armoring, as well as avoid very high voltages used to power in-line amplifiers) more than fifty years ago...but you think slapping some explosives on the side of a pipe is technically challenging to a nation-state, or even a commercial diving company that does oilfield work?

- You assume that explosives were planted by divers, and not, say, a submersible (see: Jimmy Carter) or ROV. In fact, you're assuming explosives were planted, and someone didn't use a smart torpedo of some sort.

One thing, though: I agree with others that it seems unlikely Russia would do this to themselves when, you know, they can just not supply gas into the pipeline.

One possibility: after Russia threatened using nuclear devices, both pipelines were blown up was either done to send a message - or as direct punishment for the fairly unprecedented threat to use nuclear weapons.

It also has the side effect of taking any 'heat' off EU politicians to cave if energy prices soar and/or if people freeze in their homes. Russian gas is for the moment very much off the table. If those pipelines can be repaired, it won't happen overnight, or cheaply.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#188
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is the only actor that makes any sense to me, especially after Blinken's statement yesterday (~ "it was in nobody's interest, but would you look at the benefits!"). Combine that with the US naval activity in the exact area around the time, and also the "anti"-mine "drills" they did there earlier this year. The US knows that none of their vassals will ever openly accuse them, and for the Western media it was Ru…

Sabotaging their allies' key infrastructure would be an absolutely crazy amount of risk for the US. Even if they think there is a 99% chance they'd not get caught, that is a 1% chance of completely destroying relations their with Germany, Scandinavia, the EU, and probably the entire world. And all of that risk for the very marginal benefit of disabling some pipelines that weren't going to be used anytime soon any way…

> And all of that risk for the very marginal benefit of disabling some pipelines that weren't going to be used anytime soon any way?

To ensure they weren't going to be used anytime soon.

> Even if they think there is a 99% chance they'd not get caught, that is a 1% chance of completely destroying relations their with Germany, Scandinavia, the EU, and probably the entire world.

1. The US has a history of taking insane risks with clandestine submarine ops. Much worse risks than this; they did much that could have provoked the Soviet Union during the Cold War, when both sides were threatening each other with nukes.

2. If Germany/Scandinavia/EU/etc did find irrefutable proof that the US did it, they would probably bury that proof and pretend they never saw it. It isn't in their interest to break from NATO even if America did this and they know it.

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#189
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you somewhat underestimate the difficulty of blowing this up. You have to find it first. Diving to 80 metres is _not_ child's play! Then locating the pipe with possibly poor visibility. Finally it's a big chunk of metal and concrete, you'd need the kind of explosives you can't just buy at your local corner store. I'd imagine Baltic traffic is well monitored, especially now, so if you don't want to be caught,…

USA did look there some something sus https://twitter.com/inteldoge/status/1573450988744331274?s=4...

If the US Navy were up to "something sus" they probably wouldn't have their ADS-B transceivers on...

Re: Nord Stream: Tie-ins and hyperbaric welding

#190
post #67

Everyone seems to know it was Russia and is just casting out ideas to find a plausible motivation. I find that completely baffling. For opportunity, consider that while setting up the pipeline needs a weird high-pressure residence and special training, blowing it up takes a fishing boat, scuba gear and underwater explosives. The equipment and training is cheap and available. So, those with opportunity is almost anyon…

? who else would've done it? Stop pretending. 'Maybe not russia??' is an exciting idea, but this is not a Tom Clancy novel and no such groups in Europe exists. Especially that would have the resources to carry out an attack like this. The destruction of the pipeline happens simultaneous as Russia is in a direct conflict with Ukraine/Europe and is constantly flying drones at Norwegian oil platforms.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33006231
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