Earlier quoted context omitted.
second
aaaa, the green color is new-ish account? Nice! I was wondering about that for a while now :-D Not to actually google yet it but still :-)
omg holy shit HN still uses tags
President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia
181–190 of 372 posts
Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia
#182I really hope the russian/kreml/putin war against Ukraine will end in a epic failure for them. I also hope that frozen russian assets in west can be confiscated to build up Ukraine again, russia has to be accountable and pay for all madness and horrific things they have done.
Oh yeah, super good idea. We had fantastic experience with humiliated nations before. It worked so well for Germany after WW1 /s FACT: the end of this war must be positive for the Russian people, no matter whether Russia loses or wins the military operation. Putin came to power because the West didnt help the former Soviet republics. If Russia is left alone humiliated again then we will have the next anti-western sys…
People deserve the government they have.
Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia
#183Russia has no military capabilities to feed and transport so many soldiers, let alone train them, officers are already in Ukraine and probably already dead. It's basically cannon fodder.
> It's basically cannon fodder.
Yep, same as Luhansk and Donetsk "volunteers", with WWI vintage rifles and 1960s tanks. This hasn't worked since WWI, or even before (the humiliations against China) so I'm curious how they see this playing out.
Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia
#184A few months ago analysts were warning of impending collapse of Russia's troops due to poor supplies and poor morale. Russian cheerleaders on HN were doubting it as Western propaganda saying it had been declared for months and not materialized. Well it materialized in the collapse of the Kharkiv front over a week so there's that. In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. The Russian problem is bad s…
> In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter Oh it matters. More poorly trained and equipped cannon fodder means more dead and more prisoners. The influx of caskets into previously less impacted areas in Russia might start to impact the general population more - that's how the USSR had to pull out of Afghanistan.
Not quite. Russia has already lost several multiples of the total losses it experienced in Afghanistan as the USSR (many of which were Ukranian btw). The USSR had a lot more troops vs. Russia's current situation which is really a smaller peacetime army (pre mobilization).
The reason they had to leave Afghanistan was it simply too expensive due to the cost and the sanctions and they couldn't afford to do it. Which IS what is happening in Ukraine too.
Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
If I had to guess (and I'm really hoping that I'm wrong) I'd say that RUS will use small tactical nuclear weapons on UA which will trigger NATO response. Either direct on indirect but with such impact that it will not matter so RUS will escalate the conflict with NATO. China is a question but I'd say that noone is benefiting from WW3 apart from perhaps military industry. So I don't really believe China will be too ha…
> I'd say that noone is benefiting from WW3 apart from perhaps military industry. What do you mean? If nuclear escalation happens and WW3 is triggered there is absolutely no world for the military industry to benefit from. Weapons will be required, of course, so production will continue but there would be no semblance of economy or governments as we know them now. Nukes flying are world-ending, at least the human wor…
World war by itself would benefit military industry directly. That's not saying that they wish for WW3 in any means as the destruction (or crippling) of society would be huge and it would take many years to recover.
WW3 does not necessarily mean nukes at all. I personally think - based on how Russian generals used the military funding to enrich themselves - that most of the Russian nukes are not operational. They might have some low-yield "tactical" nukes (something like nuclear grenades). And I seriously doubt that US would use theirs since as soon as you use nukes, everyone will and after that there is no winner anymore.
Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia
#186Is there any scenario from this point onwards, any at all that results in Russia coming out stronger once the smoke clears? Because I can't see any. Seems to me like the Russian govt are now in a situation where they have no choice but to see this thing through just to try and save face.
If they could conquer Ukraine and effectively quell unrest, the Federation could be said to have come out stronger. That is very unlikely though, with the Ukrainian army getting effective support. If they manage to hold the land bridge to Krim and negotiate a cease-fire, it can be argued that they had limited success in their objectives. But at a huge economic and humanitarian cost. And in a nuclear war, nobody wins.…
> If they could conquer Ukraine and effectively quell unrest, the Federation could be said to have come out stronger
Even that is doubtful. They have lost tens of thousands of their best troops, tons of expensive equipment, and destroyed their economy short (sanctions and blackmail) and long term (nobody would trust them again as a reliable supplier, so their exports of raw materials economy will suffer).
Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
The "exit ramp" is that they withdraw from Ukraine, or at the very very least they withdraw to the lines that existed before 2022. I'm really not sure what else people who say this mean.
What I mean is that we need to use diplomacy to allow Russia a way to enter negotiations and stop the war while keeping a modicum of face. There is absolutely no chance Russia just leaves Ukraine on their own while saying "we have lost, we were bad and will now behave as you wish" so there would be little point insisting on that. If what we want is a come back to pre-invasion frontiers we need to give them a way to s…
You're still not really saying what you mean in practical terms, but I assume that means ceding parts of Ukraine in a peace deal. This will never happen.
The alternative isn't escalation, it's what we've seen to date: a long, grinding war.
Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia
#188A few months ago analysts were warning of impending collapse of Russia's troops due to poor supplies and poor morale. Russian cheerleaders on HN were doubting it as Western propaganda saying it had been declared for months and not materialized. Well it materialized in the collapse of the Kharkiv front over a week so there's that. In all, I don't think the mobilization is likely to matter. The Russian problem is bad s…
I mostly agree with you, but Kharkiv collapse was not that big. While Russia abandoned a lot of equipment there, they managed to withdraw most of it and the vast majority of troops. It looks like after the initial Ukrainian breakthrough Russian generals managed to convince Putin to abandon most of Kharkiv and focus on Donbas instead.
At Bakhmut Russia did made small but meaningful progress with Ukrainian sources reporting the situation as difficult or even very difficult. And Bakhmut is the last Ukrainian line in Donbas that was heavily fortified during the last 8 years, after Bahmut any defensive positions will be much weaker.
And Lyman are far from being liberated. Ukrainians forces made a progress threatening to surround Russian forces there, but the situation is rather unclear there. As for Lysychansk there were sporadic reports about small Ukrainian units nearby, but nothing more.
What is clear is that without significantly increased heavy weapon support for Ukraine the war can drag for years. And it looks like West is not going to do it for various reasons. I mean I understand the fear to give ATACMS, but I just do not understand why not extended range GMLRS and heavy artillery.
Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
Doesn't Ukraine have a lot more to lose over time? Russia can just flatten the terrain, or ultimately nuke. The reverse isn't possible.
Nukes are a possibility, but MAD has stopped us all using them for many years so far. As far as conventional arms go: Russia has quite a few planes, tanks, and artillery; however, so long as the USA wills it, the Ukraine will have more anti-air missiles, more anti-tank munitions, and more long-range rockets. In any long-range fight, being able to locate your enemy is key; the pentagons ability to identify the locatio…
> In any long-range fight, being able to locate your enemy is key; the pentagons ability to identify the location of Russian positions appears to be unsurpassed.
Just what Russians are waiting. HIMARS flying over Ukrainian border into Russia and Balarus. Get some other allies involved, declare it a WW3 as pretext to invade Baltics.
Re: President Putin has announced a partial mobilization in Russia
#190Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nein. Germany will block it. See, its very convenient to have a weak east europe.
Their automotive industry and demography are on catastrophic crossroads, ~100 mln of people and the land between Germany and Russia are just such convenient resources.
Their automotive industry depends on east europe, and is a massive source of pollution and clocked cars. Some countries tried banning old german cars but obviously the eu “threatened” them with “sanctions”. So its not just the resources they are after but also their pockets and health. Just here on this forum you can see many express disdain at east europeans, more than any other group of people, instead of acting like actual allies. Perhaps poland’s idea of germany paying its debt to east europe is not such a bad idea and should be taken care of in full force once this war is over.