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When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

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181–190 of 408 posts

Re: When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

#181
post #31
post #2

> Buying the dip isn’t some secret strategy. Time is the secret strategy. Ah yes, the good ol' "time in market beats timing the market". Of course, that assumes that markets trend upwards in the (very) long term. Which... if past performance is any indicator of future performance [0], the past 100 years provide a fairly compelling narrative. [0] Another mantra: it's not.

> [0] Another mantra: it's not. it's the best indicator so far.

It's also the same reasoning used by a Thanksgiving Turkey.

The farmer has always come in and given the turkey food, so logically he will continue to do so. And it is true. Until it isn't. But the cost of that one day when it isn't is very high for the turkey.

Re: When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

#182
post #10

Look at a chart of the S&P 500 from 1920 to 2008 and you'll notice something rather curious: the stock market has gone parabolic ever since the financial crisis. What made this period so unique? Tremendously low interest rates coupled with quantitative easing dissuaded capital from financing the real economy and instead encouraged herding and levering up in the financial economy for returns. At ever dip, it was an op…

I hope this is true but I also feel like we no longer follow any kind of logic after 2008, we totally detached from reality.

Re: When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spent what? I don't see economic growth as a reason to expand government spending, though many disagree. The economy was good, unemployment was low, rates were rising. USA was still spending it's treasure protecting Afghanistan poppy fields.

Right, so the theory is that in good times you put on the brakes so there is something in the tank you can spend during bad times. Spending can take many forms, but the traditional ones are lower interest rates and tax cuts. The issue is that we lowered taxes significantly in the middle of good times. It's like feeding ice cream to kids already on a sugar high. There is no room to lower taxes anymore as we are alread…

Biden raised taxes.

Decades of deficit spending demonstrate the feds can print adequate amounts of fiat currency, and issue debt, to continue to bail out the banksters, bail out foreign cruise line owners, and attempt to police the world and police outer space. USA could drop the federal personal income tax and continue on with the charade.

Re: When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

#184
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My grandfather had $3M invested in the market in 2007. Lost $1M at the bottom in 2008, but didn't do anything other than rebalance. Now worth $8M. Either you fret over every price move and likely buy/sell at the worst times, or you invest with a long-term vision and stop tracking the price moves everyday.

>>> Now worth $8M. That is the price. Worth and value are different than price. If that $8M now buys about the same amount of blueberries or house as $3M in 2007, then it kept pace. Except for paying the capital gains on $5M.

Are you suggesting in 15 years, the $ devalued by more than 250%?

Re: When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spent what? I don't see economic growth as a reason to expand government spending, though many disagree. The economy was good, unemployment was low, rates were rising. USA was still spending it's treasure protecting Afghanistan poppy fields.

Right, so the theory is that in good times you put on the brakes so there is something in the tank you can spend during bad times. Spending can take many forms, but the traditional ones are lower interest rates and tax cuts. The issue is that we lowered taxes significantly in the middle of good times. It's like feeding ice cream to kids already on a sugar high. There is no room to lower taxes anymore as we are alread…

Tax-cuts to the rich meant they had more money to invest in stock-market. And the tax-cuts to the corporations meant they made more profits which made them a more attractive target for stock-investors. Both effects meant the stock-market went higher and higher. And so here we are stock market doesn't seem to be going up because there are no new tax-cuts to the rich.

There is inflation which is bad for the poor people. But people have work and are getting paid. That increases demand which causes inflation. Would it be better if people did not have money to buy anything, which would cause prices to go down?

If supply-side could flex then inflation would not happen, but it can not because of pandemic which is still closing up China and Russia whose oil is out of the market for many would be buyers, and Ukraine whose wheat is not reaching world markets.

Trying to blame Biden and Fed for the inflation is Monday-morning-quarter-backing. For anybody who blames them I would like to say: Are you seriously asking us to believe that if you had been elected president of USA, or of Fed, things would be so much better now?

Re: When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

#186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea so buy land if you’re so paranoid about becoming Japan. It’s an island nation with a very unique history. Not a great counterpoint to current US and global economics.

The UK is at more or less the same price as it was in 2000. France same as 2008. Meanwhile SPY is up 2.75x in that period. The US seems to be the anomaly. Value doesn’t always go higher. Maybe the USA is special, maybe not.

SPY is differently weighted than for example FTSE. Most indexes do not factor in dividends, if you look at the total return data where dividends are reinvested you will see there are gains in Europe, but less than the US.

Re: When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the past 100 years provide a fairly compelling narrative. In the US. The Nikkei is down over 25% from its peak 32 years ago .

Yep. No one in the 1970s and early 1980s would believe that Japan would be in the position they're in now. Sounds a lot like people examining only post-WW2 markets in the United States during a period of historic national expansion and growth and thinking they'll continue on average. The next few decades have very different social and economic considerations of the past few decades, so...

Why though ? Their 70-80s boom was always going to be short lived, geographically they are resource poor as well.

The demographics of Japan weren’t a sudden change or surprise their population is always been heading in this direction , coupled with their strong anti immigration culture and barriers to entry. It was bound to happen sooner or later .

It is extremely unlikely any one company /market can keep ahead of every single tech /product evolution cycle and always be the best .

While it is hard to guess correctly when that will happen as it did in 90s , but it will always inevitable sooner or later .

——

The growth of U.S. economy post ww2 and importantly post Bretton woods have been phenomenal is very true, however were already a powerhouse , the preceding 300 hundred years have also been explosive growth catching one wave after after .

Largely thanks to immigration of some form or other .

Modern America has always been built on the backs and hard-work of immigration. First European settlers fleeing stagnant economies, actual slavery for a while, economic slavery? of poor driven by famine or lack of opportunity later like the Irish wave or Chinese etc, then those affected by various wars, and most recently top talent from most countries in the world .

It has always been exploitative even now it is , most immigrants legal or illegal are paid less than their peers for example

Illegal immigration is more well known on how they are paid less, even In legal work visas like say H1B changing companies is hard because out of work even for a week you to leave the country immediately, changing employers also affects the Permanent residency qualifications, so people on those visas move jobs less, on average get 10-20% less and have lesser negotiating power, companies know this and use those visas as cost saving technique.

Despite all the problems around immigration, U.S. still remains the country most open to immigration , few countries come close to the volume of immigration legal and illegal U.S. supports, and path to citizenship .

Japan is other end of the spectrum in terms of immigration, which for the economy is a big problem because of such aging population.

Re: When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

#188
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The GDP is itself exponential. A growth of +2% a year is an example of an exponential curve. Sure there are "limits to growth" (see Meadows et al.) but it's not clear whether those limits are reached yet.

GDP rising exponentially is also clearly unsustainable. We have IMO reached a paradigm shift in central bank policy after decades of low rates and low inflation. The recent past is not a good guide to the near future in markets.

The entirety of human history since prehistoric times to the present gives evidence contrary to your claim. Human societies have experienced exponential growth since forever, with only occasional brief temporary setbacks. Even the Black Death is a blip on the exponential curve of economic progress.

Re: When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

#189
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exponential curves in real assets are not sustainable.

The GDP is itself exponential. A growth of +2% a year is an example of an exponential curve. Sure there are "limits to growth" (see Meadows et al.) but it's not clear whether those limits are reached yet.

Unless we find a way to 'produce' (the P in GDP) without increasing entropy by digging up stuff (oil, metals, whatever) and then releasing them into our ecosystem once we're done with them, those limits seem to be pretty close though.

That's not just me thinking that. That's the Club of Rome, in the 70's.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

Their conclusion at the time:

"the most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity"

Re: When buying the dip doesn’t work: An analysis of the dot-com crash

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>> Now worth $8M. That is the price. Worth and value are different than price. If that $8M now buys about the same amount of blueberries or house as $3M in 2007, then it kept pace. Except for paying the capital gains on $5M.

Are you suggesting in 15 years, the $ devalued by more than 250%?

Something can't devalue by over 100% of itself.

If you're asking about inflation, it is usually measured as an increase in prices.

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