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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#181

Post by s1artibartfast »

jessriedel wrote: post #43
rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

To be clear, Metaculus is a prediction aggregation platform, not a prediction market. There's no money at stake, only reputation. https://www.metaculus.com/about/ It's well recognized, including my Metaculus users and admin, that money can provide a powerful incentive for accuracy which they do not use (presumably because this would be a very different, more legally encumbered platform). However, they attempt to make…

IT looks to me like there is some money to be made:

https://polymarket.com/market/will-nato-expand-in-2022

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#182

Post by aaronchall »

flir wrote: post #154
jjulius wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There was also a report that Russia had summoned foreign ambassadors in Moscow to complain about foreign volunteers traveling to Ukraine to fight against Russia. I am absolutely dying laughing at the absurdity of such a complaint (if true), lol.

I hope every single ambassador said "they're on holiday".

I was thinking this every time I read the news back when Putin was saying this.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#183

Post by mockingbirdy »

nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

I'm part of a team that does (very small-scale compared to the big NGOs) logistics (food, clothing, baby stuff, hygiene, everything) and provides/mediates shelter in the North East of Germany and sending food, first aid kits and medical supplies to the borders/directly to Ukraine with the supplies and support of the people of the city I'm living in (I'm managing one of the provisional warehouses). We have bus companies driving people and other things.

If you'd like to work together, I'd love to talk. Petrol has become pretty expensive, so pooling resources makes a lot of sense.

95% of everything is logistics. Fully agree with the quote.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#184

Post by blibble »

brimble wrote: post #129
tyrfing wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's really never been a scenario where Ukraine wins unconditionally. Russia has started backing off on their terms - it's not going well for them either. What makes a negotiated settlement very likely at this point is that Russia has started to make serious concessions and reduced their demands primarily to territorial claims.

If Russia can get them to give up NATO and EU ambitions, and get them to start supplying water to Crimea, they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means (as they already tried once, and as Belarus has gone). Conceding on that, at this point, is just delaying the Russian takeover somewhat. If Russia can't get that out of them, I expect them to demand such large territorial concessions that what…

> they can sit back and wait until they can claim Ukraine by other means

when will this be exactly?

Putin was living on borrowed time due to the move away from fossil fuels

and his main customers are now willing to pay more explictly not to use his exports

their military ambitions are now finished, permanently

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#185

Post by JamesBarney »

ppvfy wrote: post #130
2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you researched your assertion about Iraqi support for the US? https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/02/da... > Petraeus: Ukraine is not only bigger but some 50 percent more populous than Iraq, and the Iraqi population included many millions—Kurds, Christians, Yezidis, Shabak, and many of the Shia—who broadly supported the coalition forces throughout our time there. Only a minority of the Iraqi p…

I'm not sure David Petraeus is an impartial source regarding the Iraq war, but even in that interview he avoids the claim that the majority of the Iraqi population supported the US invasion. Instead, he says that supporters of the insurgency are in the minority (you can dislike the invasion and occupation of your country by the US without supporting the Sunni insurgency or the Shia militia) and that "many millions" s…

Going into Iraq was probably a bad call from the perspective of US interests, and the cause was definitely bullshit.

But Saddam Hussein's popularity doesn't even compare to Zelensky's.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#186

Post by signatoremo »

otherme123 wrote: post #146
tada131 wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But Soviet losses were incomparably bigger than Finland. Is this war the case?

IMHO war isn't a scale of bodies. Each side has a strategic objective(s), and winning/losing should be measured against that. Case in point: Vietnam. uSA and allies lost between 1/3 and 1/2 lifes than the North. And the USA loses were small (60.000 in a total of 1.5 million deaths). But it was a total defeat of the USA because none of the strategic objectives were achieved. Ukraine: strategic objectives are being an…

The most important objective was achieved — preventing the expansion of the communism block to other countries. Vietnam today is a market economy, the country is communist in name only.

Also, please try to Vietnam. The US is very favorably perceived, more than China or Russia, although probably below European countries.

In the sense, the US lost the war, but won in the end, at a very steep price, of course

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#187

Post by ClumsyPilot »

stefan_ wrote: post #112
mattmanser wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/ukraine-soldie... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/zaporizhzhia-n...

Still with the power plant? There was a live YouTube stream of Oleg from Vladivostok shelling at whatever. Do you think the guy making $50 a month to die for Putin knows what the hell he is shooting at?

I am not sure if this makes it better or worse - that the army is full of imbecils in charge of deadly weapons, who have no idea how much danger they put everyone in.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#188

Post by pacetherace »

pmoriarty wrote: post #153
otherme123 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a saying in falling Germany in 1944: "each day our victories are closer to Germany than the previous day". You can follow the bombings, for example: if Kyiv is being shelled (and reported in Russian media), it's not under Russian control. If the shelling last for days, the city is holding. If some city was being shelled, but there are no more news about it, but the news are a nearby and further city is bein…

"It seems the Russian invasion is crawling" During WW2, the siege of Leningrad lasted 872 days. Ukraine has only been under attack for 13 days.

Exactly! Once the bombardment is over, the waiting part, which is the most horrible part of the siege will begin.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#189

Post by ClumsyPilot »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #151
imwillofficial wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was not shelled, there was a small firefight involving a training building outside the reactor complex. Shelling means artillery. No artillery was involved. You did not “see the reactor get shelled live.”

Not only did the reactor get shelled, and not only did I see it live, but I was so amazed at the Russians’ stupidity that I took screenshots: https://imgur.com/a/6T7p9BD Those gigantic streaks in the lower right are shells from tanks. They certainly aren’t tracers from rifles.

Could you elaborate why or how you determined/believe that they are tank shots, for the rest of us?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#190

Post by weregiraffe »

pixl97 wrote: post #177
pmoriarty wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It seems the Russian invasion is crawling" During WW2, the siege of Leningrad lasted 872 days. Ukraine has only been under attack for 13 days.

This isn't WWII. The cost of war these days is insanely high and depends on a constant stream of materials. Losses also occur at a much faster rate. 800 days of drones flying over you with IR scopes means you'd run out of people to shoot at much sooner. Instead you see things like the US does where you gain air superiority, take out all command and control via decapitation attacks, and then remove all the armor from…

> Losses also occur at a much faster rate.

USSR in WWII was losing on average about 5000 (five thousand) soldiers per day. So no.

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