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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#61
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. I doubt Ukraine will surrender as long as it can supply its forces with food, drinking water, and ammo. > As it stands the West can do nothing. The West can do a lot of things that it chooses not to do out of fear .…

Please elaborate on what else the West can do? No fly-zone is a non-starter

> Please elaborate on what else the West can do? No fly-zone is a non-starter

No fly-zones. It's pretty clear that falls into the category of something the West can do, but chooses not to out of fear. Because the West is afraid, Putin isn't.

Stepping down from that: have Zelensky invite the west to bomb certain Ukrainian roads and bridges in Ukrainian territory that the Russians are using, then do it. Maybe even be funny about it and post a notice of emergency demolition due to unsafe conditions on some Ukrainian DOT-equivalent site. Or supply the Ukrainians with advanced weaponry like anti-ship and cruise missiles (perhaps in-fact secretly operated by Western advisors) to attack Russian landing ships and supply lines.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#62
post #21
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we forget that Ukraine is not just Kyiv, it is slowly being swallowed up from all directions Except we haven’t forgotten, news orgs are reporting on things happening outside of Kyiv. Russia seems to have really overplayed their hand because they were barely able to take Kherson after like a week, and can’t even take bigger cities like Kharkiv, even with intense shelling. Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they su…

>Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they sure can’t do much against an enemy many times smaller than them. How long did it take for the US to take Afghanistan?

Differences are: USA never planned to invade and anexate (e.g. USA never bombed cities to terrorize people), and supply lines were waaaay worse for the USA.

Also, the terrain is very favourable to create a quagmire in Afghanistan (resistance can retreat to the mointains) while Ukraine is mainly open terrain.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#63
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The insurgency in Iraq was also a minority- most supported the US. I like to imagine that Russia will have a much more difficult time in Ukraine where they are almost universally despised.

> The insurgency in Iraq was also a minority- most supported the US Russians also think that most Ukrainians support Russia, it doesn't mean it's true. Same with believes that most Iraqis supported US.

Have you researched your assertion about Iraqi support for the US?

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/02/da...

> Petraeus: Ukraine is not only bigger but some 50 percent more populous than Iraq, and the Iraqi population included many millions—Kurds, Christians, Yezidis, Shabak, and many of the Shia—who broadly supported the coalition forces throughout our time there. Only a minority of the Iraqi population comprised or supported the Sunni extremists and insurgents and Iranian-supported Shia militia. Though they did, to be sure, prove to be very formidable enemies.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#64

I just have no confidence that we can really know anything for sure one way or another. The media so far (in the West) ranges from tangibly self-conscious to overt propaganda, much of which is proven false a day later. There is no harm in this in itself, propaganda is as much part of the war as any other part, I get that, but I at this point I wouldn't be surprised that Russia is doing much better than what is being…

What are some examples of "propaganda" that proved to be false a day later?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#65
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Zelenskyy should take: No eu/Nato membership (face it, he's months or years from qualifying anyways), and he leaves Donbask, and Crimea (for now), but does NOT agree to disband any military, and is allowed to secure his own borders. In otherwords he can still ramp up, then the west simply continues squeezing Putin and Russia for a year, or 3... then he can either go take back Crimea/Donbask regions, or perhap…

I think, they should do the exact opposite. Join EU on a quick path and call Putin's nuclear bluff. I'm not happy about it and can't sleep right for days anymore, because I fear a nuclear escalation. But I don't want to live in a world where such a situation could happen again and again. There are many slavic countries this fascist hungers for.

>call Putin's nuclear bluff.

And what do you think would be the outcome?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#66
post #38
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they sure can’t do much against an enemy many times smaller than them. How long did it take for the US to take Afghanistan?

Iraq was on the other side of the world from us, not next door, and we took that over in a matter of days.

Not to be too picky about the details, but it took about three weeks to finally get to Bagdad. The Ukrainian conflict has not been going quite that long.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#67

Here's my prediction: Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. As it stands the West can do nothing. In the case that NATO starts shooting, the sarcophagus over Chernobyl can be bombed (Putin can blame Ukrainians here). It seems to be that there's no way out…

> In the case that NATO starts shooting, the sarcophagus over Chernobyl can be bombed (Putin can blame Ukrainians here).

Bombing Chernobyl would make zero strategic sense.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#68
post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

What are you talking about? Zelenski just declined such an offer from russia.

Such is the interpretation by the Russian media of what Zelensky said in a recent interview with ABC.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/video/zelenskyy-interview-david-mu...

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#69
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. I doubt Ukraine will surrender as long as it can supply its forces with food, drinking water, and ammo. > As it stands the West can do nothing. The West can do a lot of things that it chooses not to do out of fear .…

Please elaborate on what else the West can do? No fly-zone is a non-starter

Bring back the old lend-lease program. It was basically a way to remain officially neutral while arming your allies.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#70

Here's my prediction: Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. As it stands the West can do nothing. In the case that NATO starts shooting, the sarcophagus over Chernobyl can be bombed (Putin can blame Ukrainians here). It seems to be that there's no way out…

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