Right now, it seems like there are two specific groups of people that are upset with Apple: Freedom evangelists (e.g. EFF) and tech futurists (e.g. HN). They're saying, essentially:
"Apple does not have my permission to use my device to scan my iCloud uploads for CSAM"
and
"This is a slippery slope that could result in Apple enforcing thoughtcrimes"
Neither of these viewpoints are particularly agreeable to the general public in the US, as far as I can determine from my non-tech farming city. Once the fuss in tech dies down, I expect Apple will see a net increase in iCloud adoption — all the fuss we're generating is free advertising for their efforts to stop child porn, and the objections raised are too domain-specific to matter.
It's impossible to say for certain which of your outcomes will occur, but there's definitely two missing from your list. Corrected, it reads:
"Either there will be heads rolling at management, or Apple takes a permanent hit to consumer trust, or Apple sees no effect whatsoever on consumer trust, or Apple sees a permanent boost in consumer trust."
I expect it'll be "no effect", but if I had to pick a second guess, it would be "permanent boost", well offsetting any losses among the tech/free/lib crowd.