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Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

japantimes.co.jp

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Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#181

Post by l_davis »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #134
m3kw9 wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe check how many smokes they usually do. I know some people in western countries will smoke a pack a day.

I imagine they've already eliminated the really obvious explanations of that sort. IIRC, genetics and a high consumption of seafood, especially shell fish and other things high in iodine, seem to be likely factors. If you tolerate seafood well, that's potentially of interest. People could look into studies relevant to that angle.

If iodine is the reason, probably from seaweed rather than shellfish.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#182

Post by tsimionescu »

Reason077 wrote: post #102
paulddraper wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. The U.S. response is absurd. I went grocery shopping the other day, and despite clear evidence of panic (empty shelves, hurried shoppers, long lines), but not a single person wore a mask. Somehow, everyone is too scared to go to work, but not scared enough to wear a mask. We're on course for the worst depression in history because we don't…

Unfortunately there simply aren't enough masks produced in western countries. If governments directed factories to produce face masks, like they are currently doing for ventilators, then we could have enough. And I believe most people would actually wear them if they were widely available and governments directed it. It seems like that would cost less, and might also be more effective than shutting down half the econ…

If it were more effective, don't you think at least one country on earth would have thought of that?

Masks may be able to help a little, but odds are good that if you're in a bus with an infected person coughing or sneezing, you'll be infected with or without a (regular surgical-style) mask. Those masks are almost entirely designed to keep stuff in, not to keep them out of your nose/mouth/eyes.

The slightly reduced incidence of infection from direct contact would not at all affect the greatly increased incidence from much more frequent direct contact. Which is why no country is relying on it.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#183

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

tsimionescu wrote: post #182
Reason077 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately there simply aren't enough masks produced in western countries. If governments directed factories to produce face masks, like they are currently doing for ventilators, then we could have enough. And I believe most people would actually wear them if they were widely available and governments directed it. It seems like that would cost less, and might also be more effective than shutting down half the econ…

If it were more effective, don't you think at least one country on earth would have thought of that? Masks may be able to help a little, but odds are good that if you're in a bus with an infected person coughing or sneezing, you'll be infected with or without a (regular surgical-style) mask. Those masks are almost entirely designed to keep stuff in, not to keep them out of your nose/mouth/eyes. The slightly reduced i…

Many countries did think of that. In most of East Asia, including Japan, many factories have been diverted to mask production and delivering masks to the general public has been a key government priority.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#184

Post by l_davis »

Zarel wrote: post #175
baxtr wrote: post #6

Some days ago, I found this comment from someone living in Japan. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22605657

This is what I've heard from my friends living in Japan – people are sick, but the government is refusing to test them because they want to keep the numbers down so the Olympics don't get cancelled. But other threads further up pointed out that even with massive under-testing, it should be hard to cover up a COVID-19 outbreak if it spread exponentially as expected – there would be reports of hospitals being overloade…

I'm sure PM Abe is sweating bullets. Japan has been in an economic slump for decades. The Olympics and associated tourism was supposed to fix that (and Japan has seen a big increase in tourists in recent years as they gear up). And now this?

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#185

Post by tsimionescu »

l_davis wrote: post #180
zrail wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where would we find operation masks? s far as I can tell they’re still sold out literally everywhere.

I ordered cotton masks from Etsy. They are supposed to arrive by the end of the month. Select vendors in the US for speed. Amazon has lots of cotton masks, but they all seem to be shipped from China, which means they will take awhile to arrive. (Am assuming US buyers. Looks like Etsy vendors are all over though so you can probably find a vendor locally in many countries.) There are plenty of patterns for cotton masks…

3D printing cotton masks? Are there 3D printers that can work with plant fibers?

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#186

Post by tsimionescu »

bagacrap wrote: post #76
l_davis wrote: post #50

In Japan, people wear masks so they don't spread their germs. In the US, people want to wear masks to avoid other's germs. Totally different mindset. And in the US we are being discouraged from wearing masks because they don't block the virus from going in even though they could be keeping asymptomatic people from spreading. Well I feel duly embarrassed for not thinking that way earlier. Just ordered some cotton mask…

I do wish US politicians would tell people to go back to work, but wear operation masks.

Based on a hunch from the example of 1 country with an unusually low spread? Why would anyone assume that risk?

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#187

Post by pdr2020 »

product50 wrote: post #123
adev_ wrote: post #78

Not so surprising. You have also the same outliers with Hong Kong and Taiwan. - In Japan, people naturally respect social distancing. Touching someone is considered rude, everyone bows instead of shaking hands and nobody kiss. - Almost everybody wear mask when they are sick to avoid contaminating others. They do that since way before Cornavirus and on voluntary based. - Washing hands is common, being clean (bath cult…

Do you know these are the real reasons or are you just rehashing what you have read? This feels more like confirmation bias. Can't imagine the rest of first world countries are completely shut down and here Japan is just doing fine with 1000s of ppl picnicking etc. There has to be something else going on..

That's.. actually a very salient point.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#188

Post by tsimionescu »

jiofih wrote: post #120
bagacrap wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do wish US politicians would tell people to go back to work, but wear operation masks.

There are a lot of misconceptions about masks. They are not effective for protection if not paired with eye protection. Plus viruses and bacteria actually cling to it, and lay people not used to wearing one will end up touching it way too often (try it, you’ll immediately realize how hard it is to not touch it).

As the GP mentioned, the main reason for wearing masks is to avoid spreading your disease to others. Glasses are not necessary for this.

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#189

Post by tsimionescu »

ljw1001 wrote: post #158
_9ijd wrote: post #57

I’m here in japan and have been trying to find an answer to this for the past week. It has to be the masks.

There seems to be evidence (a lot) of asymptomatic people infecting others. If you only wear a mask when you feel ill, that doesn't seem like it could be the driver. Japanese people have the oldest population in part because they live longer. Maybe it's genetic?

> There seems to be evidence (a lot) of asymptomatic people infecting others.

I've usually seen the opposite in public policy articles (CDC, NIH). Do you have an article I could read?

Re: Why is Japan still a coronavirus outlier?

#190

Post by dragonwriter »

bagacrap wrote: post #76
l_davis wrote: post #50

In Japan, people wear masks so they don't spread their germs. In the US, people want to wear masks to avoid other's germs. Totally different mindset. And in the US we are being discouraged from wearing masks because they don't block the virus from going in even though they could be keeping asymptomatic people from spreading. Well I feel duly embarrassed for not thinking that way earlier. Just ordered some cotton mask…

I do wish US politicians would tell people to go back to work, but wear operation masks.

> I do wish US politicians would tell people to go back to work, but wear operation masks.

Surgical masks, as well as N95 respirators, are already in short supply for medical use. Encourage further non-medical use would exacerbate the supply shortage and hasten the rapidly-approaching catastrophic collapse of the healthcare system.

The current recommendation (and, increasingly frequently, mandatory order) that non-essential work that cannot be done remotely should be suspended is correct.

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