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Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

nytimes.com

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Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#181

Post by fr0sty »

NeedMoreTea wrote: post #26
jp555 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kinda like how whale oil was displaced by dug up hydrocarbons.

Whaling was still happily going until there was an international ban in the seventies or eighties. Despite hydrocarbons whale oil and other products were still used in a surprising range of things. Even now after the "ban" that catch is pushing up near 10,000 a year.

> Even now after the "ban" that catch is pushing up near 10,000 a year.

Not sure this is true. This site[0] puts the total 2018 catch at only 1553.

[0]https://iwc.int/total-catches

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#182

Post by DataWorker »

Jamwinner wrote: post #180
bilbo0s wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What was eye opening to me is that, if the GP is to be believed, is that people keep buying F150s? Clearly, not everyone believes in the idea of climate change. (In fact, if that factoid is correct, a plurality of automobile consumers don't? That's a "wow" moment for me.)

Emissions standards nerfed most sedans into distinctionless conveyance aplliances. Trucks have a looser standard, and are popular as a result of more power and easy customization. Also possibly (on average) the best built fullsize truck made for the last 100 years. Brand loyalty has been earned with the f series. I say that as a person who is not particularlly fond of fords.

Not to mention tax incentives. Many of those f150 are business write offs.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#183

Post by appleiigs »

mxschumacher wrote: post #132
lotsofpulp wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consumers hold the responsibility. Their choices on where to spend money determine what kind of producers can exist. They can only make the right choices if they have the right education and data though, and that requires the government to step in.

I agree. One huge caveat is advertising. Companies implant desire into human minds, a few implicit examples: -"If you buy this sports car, women will find you attractive and you will have more sex" - "Going on this beach vacation will make you happy" - "Getting this alcoholic beverage will allow you to have fun with your friends" It's extremely hard to avoid being influenced by ads, for me it's a moral reason to use…

There will always be advertising, fake news, scams... again it's on the consumer to make the difference by not only being aware but to change their behaviour.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#184

Post by Ancalagon »

netsharc wrote: post #159
mxschumacher wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe cognitive dissonance is extremely widespread. 100% of smokers know that what they are doing is extremely bad for their health. Everybody knows about the suffering the animal industry inflicts on billions of cows, chicken and pigs. The awareness of these problems does not seem to lead to widespread and lasting changes in behavior. The taste of a burger and the sensation of driving a powerful car seems to tru…

As someone who believes in climate change and still hasn't changed his lifestyle (I still like beef, I've flown a bit this year), I fully agree. And nowadays I and many people in this group are probably adopting the mindset of "well, we're all going to die and it's too late to change anything anyway!". Although actions like "paper straws please!" don't really have that huge of an effect anyway, it just fools social m…

I gotta fess up I am the same way you are. My one excuse is that it would literally be impossible for me to get food/get to work in any reasonable way without a car, and I would never see my family if I couldn't fly back home.

I also would like to stop eating meat, but I find my "addiction" to meat consumption to be unlike anything else. I could give up coffee and alcohol no sweat but meat is like a whole other level.

Realistically, it seems to me that much of the economy and the way cities and populations work and interact need to be redesigned from the ground up to have a much smaller footprint...

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#185

Post by Animats »

ben010783 wrote: post #178
mxschumacher wrote: post #100

Demand for oil&gas will continue to grow for a long time due to: - SUV/pick-up boom (America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series!) and more cars + trucks in countries like Brazil, India, China, Indonesia - crazy growth in air travel (look at order numbers of Airbus, see how many airports are under construction, see miles traveled via plane) - simultaneous shift away from coal+ nuclear, giving a huge boost t…

America's best-selling car in 2018 is the F150 series! American's are going crazy for SUVs and pickups, but the F150 has been the best-selling vehicle for decades. Pickups have outsold passenger vehicles for a long time.

Coming in 2021, the electric Ford F-150.[1] That should be a great truck. Empty pickups have poor weight distribution; not enough weight in back. With a giant battery pack under the pickup bed, traction is better.

[1] https://youtu.be/bXFHgoon7lg

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#186

Post by appleiigs »

clomond wrote: post #133
mxschumacher wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see what you mean. A more general question about capitalism can be considered here: Who holds responsibility, consumers or producers? Both? In my view, consumers who choose to lower their demand of fossil fuels (by using the bike instead of the car and reducing their vacationing on different continents) actually make a difference. If people stop consuming, companies go out of business. Investing on the other hand i…

I think this is pretty reductionist. My alternative viewpoint is that it is really one of choice and substitutes. For the last century, fossil fuels by in large had no generally viable substitutes. Now, substitutes are coming online to replace previously heavy fossil fuel uses (think, electric cars powered with renewable energy for getting around town or the emergence of plant based burgers to replace beef burgers ->…

There has always been choice and substitutes. The general public chooses to do what is cheapest and most convenient.

For transportation, they could take the bus or ride a bike.

A local electric utility offered green energy options for a premium cost. No one signed up.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#187

Post by Ancalagon »

I feel like there is literally no way for the average person to win this fight. I can't even avoid plastic and oil use in my day-to-day life because I live too far from the only farmers market in town, because its too expensive to live any closer. The only way I can see that I could "win" is by buying a large plot of land and essentially returning to living an 1800s style agricultural lifestyle, but even that would probably be too difficult because of the startup costs to buy the land, house, and equipment. I also don't feel that many politicians understand and are popular enough to combat these issues, what else are we supposed to do?

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#188

Post by leftyted »

jdjdjjsjs wrote: post #5
nabla9 wrote: post #2

This is incredibly good news for the developing world in the short- and medium term, but really bad news for the long term. Cheap energy boosts economic growth and well-being. Oil finds its comparative advantage relative to cheap solar. Globally liquid fuel production and consumption just goes up year after year https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/images/Fig6.png Reduced use of hydrocarbons in the west is nice but it's…

The idea that the developing world will benefit from cheap oil is ridiculous. The developing world is the one suffering from the impacts of global warming. Several countries in Africa are suffering from wars worsened by climate change driven migrations. Countries like India have a mix of cities running out of water, cities flooded by water and cities drowning in pollution which is almost certainly gonna erase years o…

The idea that people in the developing world won't benefit from fossil fuels is a horrible lie. All of the claims you made (regarding flooding, wars, etc) are unfalsifiable, two-points-make-a-line gibberish.

Carbon emissions may very well be a valid concern, but that concern is not obviously more valid than people dying of privation, a condition that we know for sure is solved by economic development (which, to date, requires fossil fuels).

The idea of someone typing on some website about how people in the developing world shouldn't burn fossil fuels to lift themselves out of poverty is appalling. "How dare you" -- or something.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#189

Post by Robotbeat »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #165
bluedevil2k wrote: post #8

I think it's naive to think that humans will leave any oil in the ground despite climate change and any changes we enact to counteract it. We should work from an assumption that all the oil in the ground is going to be dug up and burned. It's too much money for some of these countries to ignore - the article mentions Guyana, a poor country that now has a way to print money. It also mentiones Venezuela, the country wi…

Not much interest in whale oil as a fuel anymore. When people find a replacement, they switch to it. The hope (prayer) is that renewable prices will fall to a tiny fraction of oil exploration/extraction/distribution costs that the idea of using it as a mass fuel is quaint. It's likely to happen, too -- just not clear if it'll happen fast enough.

That's because its use is banned. Until 1972, sperm oil was a very common additive in auto transmissions without an equivalent replacement. After the ban of its use, reliability of transmissions dropped by an order of magnitude: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sperm_oil#Applications

It took banning whaling and putting the sperm whale on the endangered species list and banning the sale of sperm oil to stop its usage. I have a feeling fossil fuels will be the same. Even if many countries no longer use coal for primary electricity production, fossil fuel use will continue at far-too-high rates until there's effectively a global ban on net CO2 emissions.

Re: Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

#190

Post by pmart123 »

mxschumacher wrote: post #138
clomond wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is pretty reductionist. My alternative viewpoint is that it is really one of choice and substitutes. For the last century, fossil fuels by in large had no generally viable substitutes. Now, substitutes are coming online to replace previously heavy fossil fuel uses (think, electric cars powered with renewable energy for getting around town or the emergence of plant based burgers to replace beef burgers ->…

the stock market is a secondary market, so buying the shares doesn't inject capital into the company itself. I suppose you could make an argument that investing in the primary market gives you more power/moral responsibility. The extremely high valuations of Beyond meat and Tesla show you that many investors are willing to shower these companies in money. As unbelievable amounts of capital are moving into solar and w…

Well, it does in some ways. It makes it easier to pay employees in stock, which could be seen as an operating expense. A company could issue equity for financing at high prices like Shopify and Twilio did recently. Debt to equity is also used as a leverage characteristic.
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