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America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

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Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#181

Post by dwaltrip »

perl4ever wrote: post #155
dwaltrip wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have enough context for the numbers. Taken in context, the numbers paint a very expensive picture economically (trillions and trillions of dollars), as well as a grave tale of unnecessary suffering for many tens of millions of people, if not more.

Suffering is necessary; I don't subscribe to the belief that it's somehow due as the wages of original sin, but to suffer and die is the fate of every human being. Not tens of millions, but all of the billions that have ever existed; not one has ever escaped it. And money is an abstraction. You could eliminate trillions and trillions just by hacking the systems that keep track of who has how much. What I'm trying to…

Not all suffering is necessary. Much potential suffering that climate change may cause is understood and avoidable, if we take action.

If you want actual numbers and the relevant context, perhaps you could read the IPCC report.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#182

Post by kls »

kls wrote: post #87
shadowprofile77 wrote: post #76

Presumably I'll get downvoted for this but here it goes.. I know that news sites like to link anything they can to climate change in the global human-caused sense because it might create more clicks but how is this a "climate exodus" in that sense? It's more a case of people having built homes in a very flat, easily flooded place that has always been really, really shitty for living due to the dangers of extremely ba…

I live in the Keys (Summerland Key), so I think I have some skin the the game here. These is not and climate change exodus happening there is a real economic issue in the keys with workforce affordability, the average rent in the keys sits very near the average rent for San Francisco. A decent home for rent will run you between $3500 to $4000 a month. Meanwhile the average non-skilled job pays about $10 an hour in th…

Another article that just popped up in the local news:

https://www.flkeysnews.com/news/local/article234300792.html?...

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#183

Post by qqqwerty »

justsubmit wrote: post #165
qqqwerty wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminding folks that climate change will result in more frequent and extreme weather events after/during extreme weather events is not lying. If folks mis-interpret that to mean that the weather event in question was due to climate change, then that is their own fault.

> Reminding folks that climate change will result in more frequent and extreme weather events after/during extreme weather events is not lying. 1. That claim certainly isn't science, because it's neither reproducible nor falsifiable. 2. If it's not science, what is it?

I don't care if it fits your narrow definition of science. If a planet destroying meteor is hurtling towards earth, is that reproducible or falsifiable? Should we do nothing until you personally are convinced that it has been scientifically proven that it will destroy the planet.

If we convert our entire energy and transportation sectors to renewable energy and climate change turns out to be a hoax, we still get cleaner cities, cleaner air and a cleaner environment. That is a perfectly acceptable consolation prize considering the potential risks.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#184

Post by jfim »

BurningFrog wrote: post #171
CydeWeys wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious connection to the climate crisis is that global warming is causing ice to melt and thus sea levels to rise. Rising seas are catastrophic for buildings and infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas, which because of its geography Florida has more of than anywhere else in the US. The world is on the way to becoming uninhabitable for modern human civilization, and we're the cause. It happens that the majorit…

I looked it up, and current sea level rise is around 3mm/year, which adds up to a foot per century. More than I thought, but hardly a non outrunnable flood. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html

That page also mentions that the rate is accelerating, so the trend isn't linear. What may be a foot per century in a linear trend might be significantly more in an exponential trend.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#185

Post by EdwardDiego »

BurningFrog wrote: post #171
CydeWeys wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The obvious connection to the climate crisis is that global warming is causing ice to melt and thus sea levels to rise. Rising seas are catastrophic for buildings and infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas, which because of its geography Florida has more of than anywhere else in the US. The world is on the way to becoming uninhabitable for modern human civilization, and we're the cause. It happens that the majorit…

I looked it up, and current sea level rise is around 3mm/year, which adds up to a foot per century. More than I thought, but hardly a non outrunnable flood. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html

Did you ignore the rest of the link you posted by mistake?

> Higher sea levels mean that deadly and destructive storm surges push farther inland than they once did, which also means more frequent nuisance flooding. Disruptive and expensive, nuisance flooding is estimated to be from 300 percent to 900 percent more frequent within U.S. coastal communities than it was just 50 years ago.

The mean sea level rising isn't out-runnable, but the storm events can be.

And also:

> Sea level rise at specific locations may be more or less than the global average due to local factors such as land subsidence from natural processes and withdrawal of groundwater and fossil fuels, changes in regional ocean currents, and whether the land is still rebounding from the compressive weight of Ice Age glaciers.

Again, all from your own link.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#186

Post by EdwardDiego »

kls wrote: post #119
not_kurt_godel wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it was a freak anomaly and I assume I will never see that again in my lifetime. Why do you believe this? The earth's climate is indisputably changing. This means that different patterns will be established than what was normal in the past. There are good reasons to believe that increasing ocean temperatures and higher ocean levels are likely to increase hurricane frequency, intensity, and destructiveness. Although…

Because, I have for the past 44 years been in a hurricanes path on a pretty regular interval. It has not changes with the exception of a single year where I got hit by 4 of them. After that for the past 14 years it has returned to that interval where about once ever 8 years I either get winged or direct hit by a hurricane. Unfortunately the last one was a major hurricane. It's been 2 years so in about 6 I will get wi…

You've only lived through nearly 1.5 climatic periods: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate#Definition

The plural of anecdote isn't data.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#187

Post by SamReidHughes »

Waterluvian wrote: post #160
paul_f wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Homes on stilts are designed to survive major storm. Cat 1 and 2 hurricanes. What is a 1 year rebuild? Are you saying a major hurricane will make landfall everywhere, every year? Because that's what you are implying.

I wouldn't fixate on the numbers. The point of the anecdote is that because climate change means more storms more often, the cut-off point for habitability gets shifted.

It might go from 20 years to 19 years. Or even less. Construction technology will easily outpace changes in storm frequency.

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#188

Post by EdwardDiego »

not_kurt_godel wrote: post #116
kls wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

according to the charts you linked to Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes (the only ones a person really needs to worry about) look pretty steady to me. It is well know that storm seasons peak and trough, on a roughly 10 year cycle. I remember the old timers telling me that long before meteorology could predict the weekly weather with any form of accuracy. We peaked in 2005 and hit bottom in 13 we are close to a peak aga…

> it was a freak anomaly and I assume I will never see that again in my lifetime. Why do you believe this? The earth's climate is indisputably changing. This means that different patterns will be established than what was normal in the past. There are good reasons to believe that increasing ocean temperatures and higher ocean levels are likely to increase hurricane frequency, intensity, and destructiveness. Although…

> There are good reasons to believe that increasing ocean temperatures and higher ocean levels are likely to increase hurricane frequency, intensity, and destructiveness.

Actually, from my reading, it's a lot more complicated than that - I can't quite recall the scientific reasons why, but it's something to do with temperature gradients in the atmosphere, or wind patterns (I vaguely recall, very happy to be corrected) . But basically, the frequency of hurricanes overall might decrease, but the frequency of severe hurricanes will probably increase.

> For the 21st century, some models project no change or a small reduction in the frequency of hurricanes, while others show an increase in frequency. More recent work shows a trade-off between intensity and frequency – that as warmer oceans bolster hurricane intensity, fewer storms actually form. For the continental United States in the Atlantic Basin, models project a 45-87 percent increase in the frequency of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes despite a possible decrease in the total frequency of all storms.

https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes-and-climate-change/

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#189

Post by EdwardDiego »

geomark wrote: post #172
selectodude wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like Chicago is about as close to safe as it gets anywhere on earth.

You are joking, of course. A safe place would not have subzero temperatures during cold season. The world is full of much safer places where there are no weather extremes, earthquakes, or other natural disasters. Of course, you must also consider manmade disasters like overreaching government, civil unrest, and if there are oil reserves you risk invasion by other countries to liberate the population.

> A safe place would not have subzero temperatures during cold season

Given the long human history of surviving subzero temperatures, why do you say that?

Re: America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys

#190

Post by EdwardDiego »

Waterluvian wrote: post #160
paul_f wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Homes on stilts are designed to survive major storm. Cat 1 and 2 hurricanes. What is a 1 year rebuild? Are you saying a major hurricane will make landfall everywhere, every year? Because that's what you are implying.

I wouldn't fixate on the numbers. The point of the anecdote is that because climate change means more storms more often, the cut-off point for habitability gets shifted.

I posted this elsewhere, but:

https://www.c2es.org/content/hurricanes-and-climate-change/

> For the 21st century, some models project no change or a small reduction in the frequency of hurricanes, while others show an increase in frequency. More recent work shows a trade-off between intensity and frequency – that as warmer oceans bolster hurricane intensity, fewer storms actually form. For the continental United States in the Atlantic Basin, models project a 45-87 percent increase in the frequency of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes despite a possible decrease in the total frequency of all storms.

Which isn't exactly a great thing, but yeah, it's always more complicated.

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