US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level • Hacker News Board

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#181

Post by annywhey » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:34 PM UTC

tathougies wrote: post #145

xevb3k wrote: post #25

This is something that seems to happen in most countries when they reach a certain stage of development (see Japan, Korea). I think it related to the general availability of contraception and that the work involved in caring for children has increased, while the number of carers has decreased. The trend toward migration means grandparents are often not nearby to help care for kids. This coupled with the fact that in…

> fathers often still don’t involve themselves in childcare. Are people really living in marriages where the husband does nothing? This is a genuine question. My family is Indian, and I grew up in America, but from what I remember, my mom and dad spent most of their time taking care of my brother and I, whether that be by cooking, paying bills, cleaning the house, taking care of the car, driving us around, etc. Our g…

The stereotypical American setup is: Man helps by going to job, paying bills, doing "male-coded" household work(handyman, auto maintenance, etc.). Woman does "female-coded" equivalents(cooking, cleaning, shopping).

In my own family the actual way it worked out was that both of them indulged their fixations and muddled through the rest without much discipline or mutual encouragement. This was imperfect but mostly worked for me up until my teen years, at that point I was neither something to indulge in or make plans with, unless one of them had concocted a story involving me - and then I was obliged to go along with it. That was not great for my psyche.

And I presume in more dysfunctional families they end up getting into an argument about everything, or one is an abuser and gets away with doing less.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#182

Post by koolba » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:34 PM UTC

jdavis703 wrote: post #46

coldtea wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Student loans, housing costs, job prospects, healthcare, childcare. People are making a rational decision to avoid children they can’t afford. Well, people in the US made way more children when they made very few money, and lived 10 together in tiny houses and apartments. And they still do in the developing world. So it can't be just costs.

Unfortunately many areas have outlawed living 10 together in tiny houses and apartments. Boarding houses have become illegal, and their modern equivalent of micro apartments are in danger of becoming illegal [0]. To add a personal story, when I was college we had about 20-30 people living in a medium sized single family home. We were mostly students, but there were a couple of kids, and a grandmother too. Our neighbo…

> To add a personal story, when I was college we had about 20-30 people living in a medium sized single family home.

How many bed rooms and how did the actual sleeping work?

A "standard" 3-bedroom house would have 7-8 people in it per room (assuming you use the family room as a bedroom too) which means either bunk beds or wall to wall sleeping bags? Also 30 people sharing two bathrooms doesn't sound fun.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#183

Post by martinpw » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:35 PM UTC

ghostcluster wrote: post #66

0xB31B1B wrote: post #5

Student loans, housing costs, job prospects, healthcare, childcare. People are making a rational decision to avoid children they can’t afford. We as a society need to re-examine the causes of rising costs of essentials so reproduction is no longer financially infeasible.

It's not just a US issue. Fertility drops below replacement rate all across the world in urban settings with modern economies, from Germany to Japan to China, even trending in sub saharan Africa https://www.ageing.ox.ac.uk/blog/Is-fertility-stalling-in-su...

That article is not particularly reassuring. Although the rate is declining in sub-saharan africa, it is very slow and seems to be stalling out. The example of Niger is particularly concerning:

[...] the shrinking arable land beset by frequent drought, is supporting a rapidly expanding population. [...] expected to grow from some 16 million today to 55 million in 2050, reaching 140 million by the end of the century

A 10x increase in population, decreasing farmland, and then add the effects of climate change on top...

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#184

Post by Karawebnetwork » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:35 PM UTC

jotm wrote: post #119

Karawebnetwork wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you have nothing in your life and none of your achievements will outlast you, the prospect of having children is more interesting. There's also the whole "not being aware contraception exists because you couldn't go to school" thing.

"not being aware contraception exists even if you went to school" haha

"going to school but not paying attention because you work two jobs and take care of your siblings"

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#185

Post by aurailious » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:36 PM UTC

Andre_Wanglin wrote: post #50

aurailious wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the time being, immigration is still causing the millennial generation to increase and is the reason why US population continues to grow. So for at least the US the result is that we may not face the same problems as other developed countries or the problem of an aging population may be reduced. It will cause the US to continue to be a nation of immigrants and the resentment that may cause.

It is disingenuous to assert that immigration de facto causes resentment instead of the source population of the immigration.

I am not sure how you are implying those two things can be seperate. All immigrants have a source. Throughout US history there has been waves of immigration. Where that source is has changed along with the resentment of that source. It is not from any particular source that resentment occurs, but that there is immigration from a source at all.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#186

Post by matte_black » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:38 PM UTC

jotm wrote: post #143

matte_black wrote: post #111

Can’t say I don’t see this as a good thing. Given how some people won’t be able to survive in the post-automation future 50-100 years from now, the best thing for them is probably to never be born.

Durr Durr but the next Einstein

If we were serious about finding the next Einstein we would be attempting to maximize the pairing of individuals who could produce such a person. This may someday be feasible, as genetic testing and online dating begin to intersect, but the time is not yet.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#187

Post by mozumder » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:39 PM UTC

losteric wrote: post #167

madamelic wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, a fact is that illegal immigrants are willing to work for dirt-cheap which subsidizes our produce price. :) https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/in-an-immigrat...

Meanwhile Chinese citizens "subsidize" the rest of our economy... The only difference is we can't move all our food factories abroad, so the labor travels here.

We could build a high-speed Maglev rail line over the Bering Straights to Asia and another one to South America...

But yah, open the borders. That's the only immediate solution.

The 90's had our greatest economic growth, and the borders were basically wide open then.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#188

Post by slg » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:39 PM UTC

robotrout wrote: post #168

slg wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the price those crops are sold at will rise until such time as the next Eli Whitney, who is probably an HN reader, invents a machine to harvest them cheaper. Sure, and who cares about the people who can't afford food in the meantime while we wait for the new Eli Whitney? You are proposing fixing one problem by creating numerous more problems.

I would be interested in your estimates of how much you believe produce prices would actually rise if farm workers were paid non-exploitative wages. I would also remind you that many of these poor people would be the ones receiving that higher wage.

Prices would only go up marginally a few percentage points, but that can be enough to break certain budgets especially when fresh food like this is already more expensive than processed and unhealthy alternatives.

You also shouldn't treat poor people as a single group. Yes, some poor people will be receiving these higher wages but no all. There are still people lost in the transition just like there would be people lost in the transition waiting for innovation from Eli Whitney.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#189

Post by InTheTop2 » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:39 PM UTC

tabtab wrote: post #19

gregorymichael wrote: post #2

What are the economic ramifications of fertility rate being below the replacement level?

There are also military ramifications. If we get into a big skirmish with China, they will overwhelm us with soldiers and high-volume weapon manufacturing capability.

Not to get too deep into the weeds but troops require logistics. Food, gear, etc. Aircraft Carriers are the great equalizer, as they provide mobile shears for cutting those lines. The USA still has the most and that's why we keep it that way.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#190

Post by gowld » Thu, May 17, 2018, 8:40 PM UTC

maxk42 wrote: post #102

Karishma1234 wrote: post #36

Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites and asians. Asians with the highest income level have lowest birth rate. Given that it is mostly whites who have been leading in STEM there is a high chance that US will lose its competitive advantage in these fields.

I wonder if the poor are having more children because they feel like they have less to lose? I desperately want to have kids and my girlfriend is on board, but she makes next to nothing and I make quite a lot of money. I tried an online calculator and if things go awry between us, I'll be paying her roughly a quarter of my post-tax income for the next two decades here in California. That's just too big a gamble for m…

If things don't go awry, you'll be paying her half of your post-tax income, and vice versa. So what's the concern about paying a quarter?

Since you say you can afford it anyway, as you make "quite a lot of money", and millions of people with much less raise children, it seems as trough you don't want desperately want to have kids, but perhaps you like the idea but don't want to spend money on other people in your family.