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US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

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Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#161

Post by chrisfinazzo »

nostromo wrote: post #114
madamelic wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, a fact is that illegal immigrants are willing to work for dirt-cheap which subsidizes our produce price. :) https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/in-an-immigrat...

Cheap produce is awesome. :) But working people not being able to find jobs because they're competing with dirt-cheap no-benefit laborers is not. :(

If you live in a place where said labor is plentiful (California, Florida, etc), this is a problem in so much as that job which went to someone who will work for less. For certain parts of the country, that is a viable occupation.

But that doesn't mean these jobs are in any way desirable.

In another instance, I see people who complain about Amazon's cashierless stores taking away jobs that people could do, but they don't seem to have an answer about how this situation could free those people up to do some other, potentially less menial job.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#162

Post by Karishma1234 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #47
Karishma1234 wrote: post #36

Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites and asians. Asians with the highest income level have lowest birth rate. Given that it is mostly whites who have been leading in STEM there is a high chance that US will lose its competitive advantage in these fields.

> Not true at all. Turns out that the poor people who actually cant afford to have kids are having more kids. Hispanic and Black growth is much higher than whites and asians. You're technically correct, but minorities are only slightly higher (birth rate wise) than whites. "It’s official: Minority babies are the majority among the nation’s infants, but only just" http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/23/its-of…

Birth rates work like compound interest. Even they are marginally higher it can mean they will grow at much rapid rate in next 20 years. Also what matters truly for a nation is working age population. New hires for Google in 20 years will represent far less whites. (If blacks and hispanics do not take to STEM in large numbers the total pool of candidates will be so less)

Programs that apparently target wealth inequality such as subsidising fathering bastard children have actually hurt minority women as they tend to have more and more fatherless children who eventually end up in the world of abuse, drugs and crime.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#163

Post by chrisfinazzo »

Analemma_ wrote: post #147
nostromo wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cheap produce is awesome. :) But working people not being able to find jobs because they're competing with dirt-cheap no-benefit laborers is not. :(

Every time agriculture-heavy states crack down on illegal immigration, crops rot on the vine because nobody else wants those jobs, even in periods of high unemployment. Here's the story from Georgia, there are identical ones from the Southwest as well: https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2012/05/17/the-law-of-... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-06/crops-rot... . Your choice is not between illegal im…

YES. Somebody gets it.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#164

Post by pixl97 »

rubicon33 wrote: post #95
mieseratte wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hope we can move to a much more sensible immigration system, similar to Canada's, for example. We have a decent immigration system in terms of getting the right kinds of advanced folks. The problem is we are also unwilling to do what needs to be done to stem the tide of unskilled illegal labor that flows into the nation.

The biggest counter argument I hear, regularly, is that the "tide" of illegal labor you speak of is NECESSARY. Who will pick strawberries? Who will clean your hotel room? Etc. It's the classic who will do "X" dirty job argument.

>Who will pick strawberries?

Let's frame this a different way...

"Who will actually spend the money to develop a strawberry picking machine when there are piles of people that are willing to do it for below minimum wage and no health care?"

Having some group you use at near slave labor status can hold back technological innovation.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#166

Post by ddebernardy »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #94
mhneu wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replacement level fertility is by definition non-exponential (or if you prefer, has an exponent of 1.) A reasonable number of macroeconomists would be ok with replacement-level fertility. The economics get really bad when the birth rate falls below replacement though - you get fewer workers supporting more retirees, which has the bad consequences you can see now in Japan.

What are the bad consequences in Japan besides flat growth?

Didn't flat growth in Japan happen much earlier than this problem? My memory might not serve me well, but my own understanding is their flat growth is a hangover related to their debt bubble popping in the late 1980s - with the bad debt still getting purged out of the system nowadays.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#167

Post by losteric »

madamelic wrote: post #92
toomuchtodo wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Illegal immigrants usually do not (under the table, off the books unskilled labor), and are in the US in large numbers (millions). Not a sleight, just facts.

Also, a fact is that illegal immigrants are willing to work for dirt-cheap which subsidizes our produce price. :) https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/in-an-immigrat...

Meanwhile Chinese citizens "subsidize" the rest of our economy...

The only difference is we can't move all our food factories abroad, so the labor travels here.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#168

Post by robotrout »

slg wrote: post #150
robotrout wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we decide that we are no longer able to exploit desperate immigrants to pick our crops, than the price those crops are sold at will rise until such time as the next Eli Whitney, who is probably an HN reader, invents a machine to harvest them cheaper. All you're doing by continuing the exploitation is keeping such automation from being developed, as you rob it of it's market. It is so predictable that the whole "bu…

>the price those crops are sold at will rise until such time as the next Eli Whitney, who is probably an HN reader, invents a machine to harvest them cheaper. Sure, and who cares about the people who can't afford food in the meantime while we wait for the new Eli Whitney? You are proposing fixing one problem by creating numerous more problems.

I would be interested in your estimates of how much you believe produce prices would actually rise if farm workers were paid non-exploitative wages. I would also remind you that many of these poor people would be the ones receiving that higher wage.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#169

Post by InTheTop2 »

mhneu wrote: post #8

For decades, the US birth rate has been held up by immigration. American values have been to regard the country as a nation of immigrants, who not only act as a source of youthful workers, but also have more kids than Americans who have been here longer. So the US has avoided workforce aging, as has happened in parts of Europe and especially Japan, through immigration. With the recent reduction in immigration, accele…

> And the people leading immigration suppression in the US know this.

Yeah, but most don't focus on it. Paul Ryan is parroting his father and is not particularly brave or interesting. He's just a guy looking for a new cause to champion, because then he can just be the first, rather than compete. It has little to do with the "issue", which is a non-issue.

> US is going to face the same low birth rate problems as other advanced economies

Weaseling in "advanced economies" (which means countries without vast natural resources to exploit or what?) is not compelling as part of a narrative, as much as it's a nonsequitor.

Re: US Births Dip to 30-yr Low; Fertility Rate Sinks Further Below Replacement Level

#170

Post by gonehome »

jacquesm wrote: post #105
wetpaws wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Going from expensive area with good job market to slightly less expensive area with little to no job market. Rrright.

You could move to a much less expensive area with a reasonable job market. It's not all black-and-white, people stare themselves blind on what their take home pay is but quality of life is at least as important. I would not move to the valley for any kind of money given that it would stop me from having the life that I would like to live. It's not as if SV is the only place in the world with a job market. Though if y…

You honestly don't even have to keep your costs way down. If you just live with roommates and don't actively try and spend a ton of money you'll be able to save enough in seven to ten years to probably buy a house somewhere else (or at least cover 60% of it).

The trick is that reestablishing an entire friend network and getting comfortable in an area takes time. The first year or two in a place is usually more difficult and I suspect this gets even harder as you get older and people are paired off.

If you live in the bay area in your 20s with roommates and then pick up and move to Austin or Boulder at 30 it's probably hard to make friends (though I'd guess dating is probably a lot easier).

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